债务支出的不断增加，正迫使古巴对其苏联式经济模式进行改革，而包括主要债权国中国在内的一些国家对此表示欢迎。
定于明年4月份召开的古巴共产党全国人民代表大会（党代会），将讨论、并可能正式批准目前已开始着手实施的一些政策，包括将政府工作人员裁减两成、削减社会福利、取消政府补贴、改善贸易收支状况，以及放宽针对小企业和外国投资方面的规定。
美国对古巴施行严格的禁运，提供贷款的国际组织大多不会向古巴放贷，因此古巴依赖于中国这个"最后贷款人"。古巴拟议中的改革措施，明显和国际货币基金组织(IMF)救助机制通常所要求的措施相似——只是议程上不包括对国有资产进行私有化。
古巴总统劳尔•卡斯特罗(Raúl Castro)最近主持召开了一次闭门会议，共有500名高官出席会议。据报道，经济部长马力诺・穆里罗(Marino Murillo)在会上表示，迫于不断增加的债务和获取新贷款的需求，除了整顿经济以外，政府已别无选择。
11月份召开的这次会议，旨在讨论与明年党代会相关的各项计划，会议视频目前正在古巴精英阶层中流传。据报道，穆里罗在视频中表示，古巴未来5年债务本息金额将不断上升，而国家实在无力偿付。
上一次古巴公布外债是在2007年，当时的外债为178亿美元。如今，大多数分析师推测外债规模应该在210亿美元以上，占到国内生产值(GDP)的近50%、一年外汇收入的30%以上。许多债权国都已厌倦了古巴的债务重组。中国近年来向古巴提供了数以十亿美元计的贷款，在古巴"债权国俱乐部"里算是相对较新的成员。但如今中国已成为古巴最大的债权国，以及仅次于委内瑞拉的第二大贸易伙伴国。
一些熟悉视频内容的人士表示，穆里罗特别谈到了务必按时偿还中国的贷款。古巴在炼油厂、港口、铁路、镍行业和电力等各个领域的建设计划，需要数以十亿美元计的新贷款。
报道称，在视频中，身为卡斯特罗经济改革负责人的穆里罗指出，国营企业应脱离政府管理。穆里罗还为有关将数万工人转移到小型企业、农场和合作社等"非国营"岗位的计划进行了辩护。
"混合资本性质的公司、合作社、有权使用闲置土地的农民、出租房屋的业主、个体经营者以及其它为提高社会劳动效率作出贡献的经济形式，都必须得到承认和鼓励。"长达32页的党代会筹备讨论文件中指出。党代会将制定古巴2015年之前的社会和经济政策。
古巴指望中国和委内瑞拉今后几年继续为古巴提供发展贷款。古巴对中国的部分债务，将以委内瑞拉石油作为担保。维基解密(WikiLeaks)近日披露的一份外交电报，描述了一位美国外交官和来自古巴各大贸易伙伴国的商业专员举行早餐会的情景。电文中说，"就连中国也承认要古巴按时还款存在问题。法国和加拿大（的官员）则回应道'欢迎加入这个俱乐部'"。
驻哈瓦那的亚洲外交官表示，中国乃至越南的官员都一再"建议"古巴实施现代化，并就此提供了帮助。党代会筹备讨论文件、穆里罗视频和近期政府各项声明都表明，哈瓦那可能正在听取他们的建议。
古巴前总统菲德尔•卡斯特罗(Fidel Castro)最近称赞中国的"整顿措施"，他对大学生们表示，"中国值得（我们）学习。"
古巴全国人民政权代表大会主席里卡多•阿拉尔孔(Ricardo Alarcón)上月访华时表示："古巴准备借鉴中国改革开放的经验。"在中国考虑再次掏出腰包之际，这样的言论肯定中听。
译者/杨远
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001036126
Rising debt charges are forcing Cuba to reshape its Soviet-style economy, with leading creditor China among those cheering on the changes.
A Cuban Communist party congress, scheduled for April, will discuss and likely ratify policies that are already starting to be implemented. These include reducing the number of state workers by 20 per cent, cutting social benefits, eliminating state subsidies, improving Cuba's trade balance and liberalising rules for small business and foreign investment.
Cuba, which is the subject of a strict US embargo and is excluded from most international lending organisations, depends on China as a creditor of last resort. Its proposed reforms are remarkably similar to those typically required under International Monetary Fund bail-outs – although privatisation of state assets is not on the agenda.
In a recent closed-door meeting of 500 top officials chaired by Raúl Castro, president, Cuba's economy minister, Marino Murillo, reportedly stated that mounting debt and the need for fresh credit had left the government no choice but to put its economic house in order.
A video of the November meeting, called to discuss plans for next year's congress, is making the rounds of Cuba's elite. The country faces rising principal and service charges over the next five years and simply does not have the money to meet them, Mr Murillo, reportedly said on the video.
Cuba last reported its foreign debt at $17.8bn in 2007. Most analysts agree it now exceeds $21bn, or close to 50 per cent of gross domestic product and 30 per cent more than annual foreign exchange revenues. Many creditors have tired of Cuba's debt reschedulings. China is a relatively new member of Cuba's creditor club, having provided billions in loans over recent years. But it is now Havana's biggest creditor and second largest trading partner, after Venezuela.
According to a number of people familiar with the video, Mr Murillo specifically talks about the need to repay China on time. Plans to develop oil refineries, ports, railways, the nickel industry and power generation will require billions in fresh credit.
In the video, Mr Castro's point man for economic reform reportedly argues that state-run companies should be freed from government administration, and defends plans to shift hundreds of thousands of workers to "non-state" jobs such as small businesses, farms and co-operatives.
"Mixed-capital companies, co-operatives, farmers with the right to use idle land, rented property landlords, self-employed workers and other forms that contribute to raise the efficiency of social labour must be recognised and encouraged," adds a 32-page discussion document prepared for the congress, which will set out Cuba's social and economic policies through 2015.
Cuba is counting on China and Venezuela to provide fresh development credit in the coming years. Some of its debts to Beijing will be backed by Venezuelan oil as collateral. A diplomatic cable, released by WikiLeaks last week, describes a US diplomat's breakfast meeting with the commercial attachés from Cuba's biggest trade partners. "Even China admitted to having problems with getting paid on time," the cable reported. "[Officials from] France and Canada responded with 'welcome to the club'."
According to Asian diplomats in Havana, Chinese and even Vietnamese officials have repeatedly "suggested" Cuba modernise and offered their assistance. Discussion documents for next year's congress, the Murillo video and recent government statements all indicate that Havana may be heeding their advice.
Fidel Castro, former president, recently praised China's "rectifications" and told university students: "China is worth studying."
"Cuba is prepared to take advantage of China's experience in developing reform and opening up," Ricardo Alarcón, a long-time politburo member, added while visiting China last month. Such words will surely be welcomed in Beijing as it ponders further loosening its purse strings.
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