2010年12月2日

中国新能源政策冲击全球 Energy: Dual approach seeks power security and emission cuts

中国对进口能源和原材料的依赖,长期以来一直让中国领导人夜不能寐,但这也迫使他们想出了一种创新性的解决办法:转向非化石燃料,这样既可以保障能源安全,又有利于减少排放。

据信,在10月于北京召开的中共中央十七届五中全会上,能效目标排入了(高度机密的)会议日程。会后,中国官方媒体表示,提高能效的行动将在未来十年里继续开展。

今年5月,中国总理温家宝承诺,将以“铁的手腕”实现能效目标。

中国计划到2015年将能源强度(单位国内生产总值(GDP)耗费的能源)降低17.3%,到2020年,在2015年的基础上再削减16.6%。

这些目标与发展更清洁能源的行动是一致的:中国政府还计划在2020年之前,将碳排放削减40%-45%,并将非化石燃料占国内总能耗的比重提升至15%。

中国以双管齐下的办法应对国内能源短缺,在提高能效的同时,减少对化石燃料的依赖。当全球都在减少对化石燃料的依赖时,中国的做法成为众所瞩目的焦点。

例如,中国大力发展核能源,如今已成为核工业发展的一个关键驱动因素:全球拟修建的新核反应堆,有近三分之一是在中国。

预计中国政府很快就会出台一项可再生能源刺激计划,向新能源领域注资5万亿元人民币(合7510亿美元)。此举将进一步改写全球市场的格局。

美国剑桥能源咨询公司(IHS Cera)驻北京副总监周希舟表示,新能源刺激计划经过不断修改,覆盖面逐步扩大,现在不仅包括可再生能源和电动车,还包括所有对于当今中国来说非属传统的事物。“甚至可能包括非常规天然气、清洁煤炭、煤层气等各种在当前系统中尚不算关键的能源。”

对于将被纳入该计划中的能源种类,中国政府做了一个广泛的定义。除了风能、太阳能、水电等可再生能源,中国政府还将把非常规天然气等领域纳入刺激计划。

燃烧天然气要比烧煤清洁得多,而据认为,中国拥有充足的所谓“非常规能源”,例如蕴藏在紧密页岩层或埋在煤炭矿层里的天然气。

中国对安全能源的探求也在向海洋发展,那里有风能和丰富的天然气储备,可供开发。今年夏季,中国完成了首个离岸风电项目的公开拍卖。在油气领域,中国也在积极开发开发海底资源。观察人士相信,离岸油气生产目标可能会列入下一个五年规划。

要开发这些资源,中国企业必须获得相关技术,因此,获得能源相关领域的技术,成为近些年的一个主题。

离岸油气开采技术在近几年取得重大进展:中国正在上海修建首个深水钻井平台。

此外,中国企业一直在购买海外具有挑战性的深水项目的少数股份,部分原因就是为了能获得深水钻井技术。

在核领域,中国也极为重视技术的获取。中国2006年招标修建核反应堆时,技术转让就是遴选过程中的重要考虑因素之一,而中标的美国西屋电气(Westinghouse)同意把交出其第三代核反应堆的设计方案作为协议的一部分。

同样,在风能领域,通过国产化比率要求和合资,中国制造商最终获得了涡轮机技术。

随着合同落入本土企业手中,五年前还主宰着中国市场的外国制造商,现在只能坐在一边观望。
 

在新兴能源的许多领域,中国企业快速赶上并超越了西方同行。

中国企业定会在全球太阳能市场占据主导地位,这在一定程度上要归功于中国国内优厚的太阳能生产政策。

此外,在电动车制造方面(这也被纳入了新能源刺激计划),本土企业拥有稀土资源优势——稀土是制造电动车电池的关键成分。

这些技术因素是中国能源安全战略的重要组成部分,但也引起了其他国家的日益不安。美国贸易代表最近宣布启动对中国环保技术领域的调查,将包括对稀土政策、风能和太阳能的调查。

中国的回答很简单。中国商务部在美国宣布的调查次日表示:“美对中国的清洁能源政策采取行动,传递的信号将是美国并不支持中国改善环境的努力。”

正如此事所显示的,国际贸易、科技纠纷与中国发展清洁能源的努力已交织在一起,这可能成为影响中国能源未来的关键因素之一。

译者/何黎

 
 
 

China’s reliance on imports for energy and raw materials has long been something its leaders lose sleep over. But it has driven them to an innovative solution: moving to non-fossil fuel energies as a source of both energy security and of emissions reductions.

This month, when the plenum of the central committee of the Communist party convened in Beijing, energy targets were thought to be on the (highly secret) agenda. After the meeting, state media said the energy efficiency drive would continue for the next 10 years.

In May premier Wen Jiabao promised to use an “iron fist” to reach the energy efficiency target.

By 2015, China hopes to have cut energy intensity, a measure of energy consumed per unit of GDP, by 17.3 per cent. By 2020 the plan is to cut energy intensity by a further 16.6 per cent from the 2015 levels.

Those goals go hand in hand with the drive for cleaner energy: it aims to cut carbon emissions as well, by 40-45 per cent before 2020 and raise non-fossil fuel energy use to 15 per cent of domestic consumption.

This dual approach to the country’s energy deficiency – making it more efficient while also moving away from fossil fuels – has pushed China into the spotlight of the global shift away from fossil fuels.

Its embrace of nuclear energy, for example, is now a key driver for that industry: nearly a third of the proposed new reactors in the world are in China.

The government’s renewable energy stimulus plan, which is expected to be rolled out soon, is set to pour as much as Rmb5,000bn ($751bn) into new energies, in a step that will further reshape the global market.

Zhou Xizhou, associate director at IHS Cera in Beijing, says the scope of the new energy stimulus plan has been gradually expanding, as the plan has been revised. It now includes “not just renewables, not just electric cars, but anything that is not traditional to China today.

“That could even include unconventional gas, clean coal, coal-bed methane, all these energy sources that are not key to the system right now.”

The government has sketched out a broad definition of the energy sources that will be included in the plan. In addition to renewables such as wind, solar and hydro, China is also including areas such as unconventional gas in the stimulus package.

Gas is much cleaner burning than coal, and China is thought to have abundant supplies of so-called unconventionals – gas trapped in tight shale formations, for example, or embedded in coal deposits.

The country’s quest for secure energy is also taking it offshore, where wind energy and significant deposits of gas can be tapped. The country’s first public auction for offshore wind blocks was completed this summer. In oil and gas too, there is a push to tap resources under the sea, and observers believe that the next five-year plan could include offshore oil and gas production targets.

To tap these resources, Chinese companies need to acquire the technology to do so, and technology acquisitions in energy-relevant areas have been a theme of recent years.

Technology for extracting offshore oil and gas has seen a serious technical push in recent years: China’s first deepwater drilling platform is under construction in Shanghai.

And Chinese companies have been buying minority stakes in challenging deepwater blocks overseas, partly to gain exposure to deepwater drilling technologies.

In the nuclear arena too, technology acquisition has been a priority. When awarding nuclear reactor contracts in 2006, technology transfer was a big factor in the bid selection process, and the winning company, Westinghouse, agreed to hand over the plans for its third-generation nuclear reactor as part of the deal.

 

Likewise, with wind energy, local content requirements and joint ventures have allowed Chinese manufacturers to access turbine technologies.

Foreign makers that dominated the Chinese market just five years ago are now sitting on the sidelines, as contracts go to local companies.

In many areas of emerging energy, Chinese companies have been quick to catch up with – and then surpass – their western peers.

Chinese companies are set to play a dominant role in the global solar market, thanks in part to generous policies for solar manufacturing at home.

And when it comes to manufacturing electric cars (which are also included in the new energy stimulus), domestic companies have the advantage of ready access to rare earths, the elements critical to building electric-car batteries.

These technology elements are an important part of China’s energy security strategy, but one that is increasingly ruffling feathers elsewhere. The US Trade Representative recently announced an in­quiry into China’s green technology sector, which will include investigations into rare earths policies, wind and solar power.

China’s response was simple: “The US probe into China’s clean-energy policies sends a signal that the US doesn’t support China’s hard work on cleaning up the environment,” China’s ministry of commerce said the day after the investigation was announced.

That intersection, where trade and technology disputes meet the clean-energy drive, could be one of the key factors shaping China’s energy future.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035846/en

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