2010年12月15日

温家宝力促中印贸易更上一层楼 Wen Pushes India, China Trade

国国务院总理温家宝五年来首次访问印度,周三他力图将外界关注的焦点从动辄就陷入麻烦的中印关系投向一个更为积极的变化:中印两个快速增长的亚洲经济体之间方兴未艾的贸易关系。

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印度总理辛格与中国总理温家宝
温家宝向印度和中国商界领袖发表讲话时,宣布两国企业签订了160亿美元的经贸协议,涉及电信、电力和大宗商品等各行业。这是他此行首次出席公开场合的活动。

近年来中国和印度在边界、签证和中国对巴基斯坦的支持等问题上争吵不断,两国关系并不十分友好,而温家宝呼吁改善双边贸易关系。

温家宝说,有些媒体把中印看成经济领域的竞争对手,我不同意这种看法,世界完全有足够空间供中印发展,也有足够空间供中印合作,中印经贸合作的前途是光明的。

随着印度经济的不断发展,中国和美国都希望与印度加强关系。美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama) 11月访问印度时,宣布签署了价值100亿美元的出口协议。英国首相卡梅伦(David Cameron)7月宣布与印度签订了价值11亿美元的防务协议。

中国在推动与印度的贸易议程时,希望自己能够取代美国和其它西方国家,成为印度增长的主要推动力。而准备未来数年在基础设施建设方面投资1万亿美元的印度也十分渴望能够利用中国的专有技术和金融实力。

温家宝勾勒出了一幅中印经济优势互补的美好蓝图:中国以制造业和基础设施见长,而印度在信息技术和生物制药等方面拥有优势。

温家宝说,二十一世纪是亚洲的世纪,也是中印两国大有作为的世纪。印度商工部长夏尔马(Anand Sharma)也发表了类似讲话。他说,印中两国有各自的优势,可以共同协作。

但温家宝也承认,目前存在着长期困扰中印商业关系的巨大贸易不平衡问题。中印双边贸易2000年以来已增长了20倍,今年有望达到600亿美元,这一数字意味着中国有可能已经成为了印度最大的贸易伙伴。

然而印度在向中国出口货物方面,仍然扮演着相对来说微不足道的角色。一方面,印度主要依赖铁矿石等产品向中国出口,而另一方面却从中国进口高价值的电力和电信设备。印度经常抱怨中国向印度市场倾销工业产品,并且印度出口到中国的制药和电信等高价值产品面临中国的关税壁垒。

温家宝说,中国随时准备为印度出口提供更有利的条件,但并未说明北京方面会采取何种行动。他敦促印度尽快启动自由贸易协定对话,取消投资壁垒,意指印度惯常使用的保护性政策,有10家印度银行已在华开设分支机构,而中国的银行还未能在印度开展业务。

印度官员说,除非北京方面消除某些贸易壁垒,并采取行动缓解两国之间有关边境和其他问题的政治紧张局势,否则是不可能展开自由贸易协定对话的。

周三宣布的许多协议都是有关印度公司向中国出口冷冻鱼、铁矿石和纱线等产品的。但更大规模的交易协定是,中国的银行向印度公司提供资金购买中国出口的电力和电信领域的产品。

新德里智库政策研究中心(Center for Policy Research)战略研究教授切拉尼(Brahma Chellaney)说,较之中国,对大宗商品出口的依赖让印度看起来就像是一个非洲国家。他指的是中国对非洲矿业的大规模投资。

这些交易的准确数字尚不确定,印方官员早些时候说总规模为200亿美元。

许多大额电力和电信协议似乎此前就已经宣布。双方官员都无法说出其中的差别。

据印度工业联合会(Confederation of Indian Industry)提供的一份名单,其中一项协议是中国发展银行向印度大型企业集团Reliance ADA Group提供贷款从上海电气集团购买发电设备,贷款数额尚不得而知。10月,这两家公司签订了一项Reliance ADA Group购买100亿美元设备的协议。

尽管贸易是重点,但中印关系仍存在诸多政治问题,可能会在周四温家宝与印度总理辛格会晤时被谈及。

一年前,两国的喜马拉雅边界爆发争端,至今仍未解决。今年夏天,中国拒绝向印度一位进行官方访问的将军发放签证,导致两国高级别军事交往中断至今。

中国对印度的地区性对手巴基斯坦的支持也使两国关系进一步恶化。北京方面帮助巴基斯坦修建民用核反应堆,并为其公路、铁路和港口建设提供资金支持。

现在,中国又要在雅鲁藏布江修建大坝,已于11月动工,此举惹怒了印度,因为雅鲁藏布江的下游在印度境内。

为抗衡中国,印度一直在与其他亚洲国家建立更为紧密的国防和经济关系,这些国家也对中国近几个月来日益强硬的外交颇为担忧,其中包括中国与日本和越南就领土争端的激烈争吵。

印度加强了与日本和韩国的国防合作。今年,印度与韩国的一项自由贸易协定生效,新德里方面也正与日本商讨达成类似协议。

Tom Wright

(更新完成)

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, on his first trip here in five years, sought Wednesday to turn attention away from his country's fractious ties with India toward a more positive development: the burgeoning trade relationship between the two fast-growing Asian economies.

Mr. Wen, speaking to Indian and Chinese business executives in his first public engagement on his visit, announced $16 billion in deals between companies from the two countries in sectors ranging from telecoms to power and commodities.

After recent years of poor relations, in which China and India have clashed over their borders, visas and China's support for Pakistan, Mr. Wen made a plea for an improvement in relations based on trade.

'Some media have described China and India as adversaries. I don't agree with such a view,' Mr. Wen said. 'There's enough space in the world for both China and India. We both stand to gain from economic cooperation and trade.'

As India's economy grows, both China and the U.S. are hoping to increase ties in India. In November, U.S. President Barack Obama, on a trip to India, announced $10 billion in deals for U.S. companies to export to India. British Prime Minister David Cameron in July announced a defense deal worth $1.1 billion.

China, in pushing its trade agenda, is hoping to supplant the U.S. and other Western countries as a major driver of India's growth. India, too, is keen to harness Chinese expertise and financial muscle as it prepares to spend up to $1 trillion in infrastructure development in the years ahead.

Mr. Wen laid out a vision in which India's and China's economic strengths complement one another: China in engineering and infrastructure; India in information technology and pharmaceuticals.

'The 21st Century is the Asian Century,' Mr. Wen said. 'It's also the century in which China and India can make great achievements.' Anand Sharma, India's Minister for Commerce and Industry, struck a similar tone: 'We have strengths, which are synergies.'

But Mr. Wen also acknowledged the huge trade imbalance which is currently bedeviling India's commercial relationship with China. Two-way trade has grown twentyfold since 2000 and is expected to reach $60 billion this year, meaning China is likely already India's largest trading partner.

India, however, is a relatively insignificant supplier of goods to China, relying mainly on exports of commodities like iron ore, while importing high-value Chinese power and telecoms equipment. New Delhi complains regularly about the Chinese dumping of manufactured products on its markets and barriers to its higher-value exports such as pharmaceutical and telecoms products to China.

Mr. Wen said China stood ready to facilitate better access for Indian exports but didn't specify what actions Beijing plans to take. He called on India to soon launch talks toward a free trade agreement and also for the removal of barriers to investment, an allusion to India's often protective policies which mean no Chinese banks are operating here while 10 Indian banks have set up branches in China.

Indian officials say talks on a free-trade pact are unlikely until Beijing removes some of its trade barriers and moves to solve other political tensions between the two countries over borders and other issues.

Many of the deals announced Wednesday were for Indian companies to export products like frozen fish, iron ore and yarn to China. But the larger deals were agreements for Chinese banks to finance the purchase by Indian companies of Chinese exports of goods from the power and telecoms sectors.

India's reliance on exports of commodities makes it 'look like an African country in relation to China,' said Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research think tank, referring to China's massive investment in mines across Africa.

There was some confusion over the exact amount of the deals, with Indian officials saying earlier they amounted to a cumulative $20 billion.

Many of the larger power and telecoms agreements appeared to have already been announced. Officials on both sides were at a loss to explain the difference.

One of the deals, according to a list supplied by the Confederation of Indian Industry, was for a loan of an undisclosed size from China Development Bank to help Indian conglomerate Reliance ADA Group purchase power-producing equipment from Shanghai Electric Group Co. The companies in October signed an agreement for Reliance to buy $10 billion in equipment.

Despite the focus on trade, a number of political issues hang over China's relationship with India and are likely to be broached when Mr. Wen meets Thursday with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

A year ago, a dispute over the countries' shared Himalayan borders reignited and has yet to be settled. This summer, India and China suspended high-level military exchanges after China refused to give an Indian general a visa for an official visit and they have yet to resume.

China's backing of Pakistan, India's regional rival, has also soured relations. Beijing is helping Pakistan build civilian nuclear reactors and has funded the construction of roads, rails and ports.

Now, China's plan to build a massive dam on the Brahmaputra river, which it began in November, has angered India, which shares downstream sections of the river.

To counterbalance China, India has been forging closer defense and economic ties to other Asian countries that also are fearful of China's more forceful diplomacy in recent months, which have included angry territorial spats with Japan and Vietnam.

India has stepped up defense cooperation with Japan and South Korea. A free trade agreement with South Korea came into effect this year and New Delhi is working on a similar agreement with Japan.

Tom Wright

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