2010年哪些思想对世界影响最大？《外交政策》(Foreign Policy)杂志赶在年底前给出了自己的答案：世界百大思想者年度排行榜。作为勾画思想史的首份榜单，这张排行榜在反映新兴市场的崛起方面，取得了不凡成绩。
“百大排行榜”的优点在于覆盖了贫困国家面临的一系列挑战，为几乎每一种弊病提供了思路，缺点则是低估了经济起飞的作用，而这个因素在改变贫困国家的观念方面效果最为显著。
榜单承认武装冲突和自然资源（保罗•柯利尔(Paul Collier)排在29名）、良好治理（莫•易卜拉欣(Mo Ibrahim)排在50名）、公共卫生（卡玛尔•卡夏尔(Kamal Kashar)排在84名）以及贫困（萨比娜•阿尔凯尔(Sabina Alkire)排在66名）等因素的重要性。
榜单对中国政治给予了特别关注：异见人士刘晓波、致力揭发黑幕的新闻界人士胡舒立、以及博客作者韩寒均榜上有名，分别排在16、82和86的位置。另外，榜单称赞谷歌(Google)创始人“起而反抗中国的威逼”，将他们排在第21位。
不过除此之外，榜单上绝大多数都是外交部长和谋略家，而他们的功绩不见得让人心悦诚服。巴西和土耳其（两国外长均排在前10名）寻求在伊朗核问题上促成一项国际协议，却无果而终。巴西外长塞尔索•阿莫林(Celso Amorim)对此直言不讳，他告诉英国《金融时报》：“我们碰了钉子。”在一起世人瞩目的石刑案件上，巴西也未能成功对伊朗施加影响。
相反，巴西的经济政策制定者在国际上发挥了更大影响，特别是提出了货币战争说，可他们却未能入榜。其它新兴市场的政策制定者，除了两个中国人以外，也都没有上榜。中国央行行长周小川为缺乏弹性的人民币辩护，排名仅比巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)落后一个位置；中国顾问樊纲排在第60名。
至于新兴市场的商界人士，上榜的只有印度Infosys的创始人之一南丹•尼勒卡尼(Nandan Nilekani)，以及参与拟定美国扩大对非洲贸易立法的米尔斯•莫兰德(Miles Morland)和罗莎•惠特克(Rosa Whitaker)。该群体对新兴市场增长的贡献远不止于此：虽说很少有人能媲美史蒂夫•乔布斯（Steve Jobs，排在第17名）的商业魅力，但他们努力在最严峻的环境中推动市场开放的做法应当受到肯定。如果麦当劳(McDonald’s)的冲突预防理论可信，那么促进新兴市场之间贸易的人士就称得上是“事实上的外交官”。
针对上述指摘，《外交政策》杂志最好的辩护词或许是，不用着急，来日方长，如果新兴市场的崛起确实是不可阻挡的，那么“金砖四国”的商人和政策制定者有的是机会登台亮相。
以下列出入选“2010年度百大思想者”的新兴市场人物以及他们入选的理由，完整榜单可见《外交政策》网站：
4. 中国央行行长周小川，掌握着世界经济命运
6. 巴西外交部长塞尔索•阿莫林(Celso Amorim)，把巴西推上国际舞台
7. 土耳其外交部长阿迈特•达武特奥卢(Ahmet Davutoglu)，土耳其在国际上重新觉醒的谋划者
16. 中国政治犯刘晓波，把1989年运动的火种传播给下一代
18. 印度国家安全顾问希夫香卡尔•梅农(Shivshankar Menon)，推动印度退出国际不结盟运动
29. 牛津大学经济学家保罗•柯利尔(Paul Collier)，证明自然资源未必是诅咒
32. 巴西绿党领导人玛瑞娜•席尔瓦(Marina Silva)等，使“绿色”成为主流
36. 联合国副秘书长米歇尔•巴切莱特(Michelle Bachelet)女士，在现实中贯彻一个女政治家追求两性平等的梦想
43. 印度企业家南丹•尼勒卡尼(Nandan Nilekani)，证明印度可以不仅是民主的，也是高效的
44. 中国地缘战略家郑必坚，坚持中国“和平崛起”之理念
50. 易卜拉欣基金(Mo Ibrahim Foundation)创始人莫•易卜拉欣(Mo Ibrahim)，促使非洲遵循高标准
53. 投资界人士米尔斯•莫兰德(Miles Morland)和顾问罗莎•惠特克(Rosa Whitaker)，把非洲看作充满机遇之地
54. 斯坦福大学(Stanford University)经济学家保罗•罗默(Paul Romer)，提出世界最快的经济发展捷径
60. 中国国民经济研究所(National Economic Research Institute)所长樊纲，阐述中国可以不止是世界工厂
64. 秘鲁作家马里奥•巴尔加斯•略萨(Mario Vargas Llosa)，描绘了暴政之种种现实，以便终结暴政
66. 英国经济学家萨比娜•阿尔凯尔(Sabina Alkire)，证明贫困不唯体现在金钱上
82. 中国《新世纪周刊》(Century Weekly)总编胡舒立，扩大中国的辩论空间
84. 印度卫生专家卡玛尔•卡尔(Kamal Kar)，干着世界上的脏活儿
86. 中国博客作者和小说家韩寒，抒发中国崛起过程中的不安情绪
87. 卡塔尔王妃莫扎(Mozah bint Nasser al-Missned)，在阿拉伯世界推动教育事业
92. 李光耀公共政策学院(Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy)院长马凯硕(Kishore Mahbubani)，新亚洲世纪的代言人
译者/杨远
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035828
Which ideas have most shaped the world in 2010? Foreign Policy magazine has made its pitch before the year is out - publishing an annual list of the world’s top 100 thinkers. As a first draft of the history of thought, the list does an impressive job of reflecting the rise of emerging markets.
The Top 100’s strength is to cover a range of challenges facing poor countries, providing an idea for almost every ill. Its weakness is to downplay the factor that has done most to change perceptions of those same countries - economic lift-off.
The list nods to the importance of armed conflict and natural resources (Paul Collier, No. 29), good governance (Mo Ibrahim, No. 50), public health (Kamal Kashar, No. 84), and poverty (Sabina Alkire, No. 66).
It pays particular attention to Chinese politics - with dissident Liu Xiaobo (No. 16), muckraking journalist Hu Shuli (No. 82) and blogger Han Han (No. 86) all included, along with the founders of Google (No. 21), who are praised for “standing up to China’s bullying”.
Yet, otherwise, it’s foreign ministers and strategists who predominate. And their merits are questionable. When Brazil and Turkey - whose foreign ministers are both in the top 10 - sought to broker an international deal on Iran’s nuclear programme, they fell flat. Brazil’s Celso Amorim admitted as much, telling the FT: “We got our fingers burned.” Brazil was also unsuccessful at influencing Iran over a high-profile stoning.
Conversely, Brazil’s economic policy makers have played a more influential global role, notably in flagging the currency wars. Yet they miss out on the list - as do other emerging market policymakers, except for two Chinese picks. For his defence of the inflexible renminbi, China’s central banker, Zhou Xiaochuan, is ranked just one place below Barack Obama, while Chinese adviser Fan Gang is at number 60.
As for EM business picks, the list only includes Nandan Nilekani, co-founder of India’s Infosys, and Miles Morland and Rosa Whitaker, who helped draft US legislation to boost trade with Africa. There is much more to the emerging market growth than that: even if few can match the business glamour of Steve Jobs (No. 17), their approaches to opening up markets in the toughest circumstances deserve recognition. And if the McDonald’s theory of conflict prevention is to be believed, those who promote trade between emerging markets count de facto diplomats.
Perhaps Foreign Policy’s best defence is that there’s no hurry. If the rise of emerging markets is truly inexorable, there’ll be plenty more years for Bric businessmen and policymakers to appear.
Below is an emerging market selection from the Top 100. The full list is available on the Foreign Policy website.
FOREIGN POLICY’s TOP 100 OF 2010
An emerging markets selection
4. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of People’s Bank, China - for holding the world’s economic fate in his hands
6. Celso Amorim, foreign minister, Brazil - for transforming Brazil into a global player
7. Ahmet Davutoglu, foreign minister, Turkey - for being the brains behind Turkey’s global reawakening
16. Liu Xiaobo, political prisoner, China - for bearing the flame of 1989 into a new generation
18. Shivshankar Menon, national security adviser, India - for dragging India out of its global nonalignment
29. Paul Collier, economist, Oxford University - for showing that natural resources don’t have to be a curse
32. Marina Silva, Brazil, with other green party leaders - for taking Green mainstream
36. Michelle Bachelet, Undersecretary-general, UN Women - for applying a stateswoman’s vision to gender equality
43. Nandan Nilekani, entreprenuer, India - for proving that India can be not only democratic, but efficient
44. Zheng Bijian, geostrategist, China - for trying to keep China’s rise peaceful
50. Mo Ibrahim, founder, Mo Ibrahim Foundation - for holding Africa to high standards
53. Miles Morland, investor, and Rosa Whitaker, consultant - for seeing Africa as the land of opportunity
54. Paul Romer, economist, Stanford University - for developing the world’s quickest shortcut to economic development
60. Fan Gang, director, National Economic Research Institute, China - for articulating how China can become more than the world’s factory floor
64. Mario Vargas Llosa, writer, Peru - for depicting the realities of tyranny, so as to end it
66. Sabina Alkire, economist, UK - for showing poverty is about more than money
82. Hu Shuli, editor, Century Weekly, China - for enlarging the space for debate in China
84. Kamal Kar, sanitation expert, India - for doing the world’s dirty work
86. Han Han, blogger and novelist, China - for channelling rising China’s restlessness
87. Mozah bint Nasser al-Missned, first lady, Qatar - for championing education in the Arab world
92. Kishore Mahbubani, Dean, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy - for being the voice of a new Asian century
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