中国观察人士认为，中国将于近期加息是理所当然之事——很可能未来几天内就会有一次加息。因此，他们把猜测重点转向了另一个关键的货币政策参数——2011年的新增贷款目标。
汇丰(HSBC)的孙瑜(Steven Sun)预测，该数字将于本周中央经济工作会议期间浮出水面，很可能会大幅低于今年7.5万亿元人民币（合1.3万亿美元）的新增贷款目标。如果通胀鹰派占上风，这一数字可能会低至6万亿元人民币。如果亲增长阵营占上风，这一数字将更接近于7万亿元人民币。孙瑜在周二的一份报告中表示，该决定对中国经济及企业利润前景至关重要。他写道：
“1万亿的变动意味着，摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数(MSCI China)的每股盈利将出现12%的变动，该指数本身的变动幅度也与此类似（前提是其它所有因素都保持不变）。市场目前猜测，新增信贷额度可能会低至6万亿元人民币（控通胀阵营），也可能高达7万亿元人民币（亲增长阵营）。”
“中国的经济增长严重依赖新增贷款。企业利润也历来受新增贷款推动并与之密切相关，这不足为奇。”
孙瑜的图表显示，即便是6万亿元人民币的目标，也较危机前的平均水平有大幅提高，这说明接下来要流入整个经济的信贷有多么的庞大。难怪人们如此担忧通胀。鉴于政府正在压制房地产市场以控制房价，流动性必将在其它行业“浮出水面”。
此外，中国官方刊物《中国证券报》(China Securities Journal)的言论令人们更加认为，中国马上就将加息。路透社(Reuters)报道称，《中国证券报》在其头版上表示，本周末（即12月13日发布11月份消费价格(CPI)数据之前）将迎来一个加息“敏感窗口”。经济学家预期，11月份CPI同比增幅将达到4.7%左右，比10月份的4.4%有所上升。
人们担心，政府将收紧货币政策以应对日益高企的通胀。这惊吓到了股票市场——中国股市已较上月的近期高点下跌了约11%，其中包括在本周二下跌的0.65%。尽管中国政府似乎决心稳步前进、避免出现意外，但下述风险仍然存在：一是国内经济对政府政策的反应不够迅速，二是全球经济仍有可能给中国带来严重的冲击。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035937
China-watchers are taking for granted an early interest rate hike, with one probably coming in the next few days. So speculation has switched to another crucial parameter of monetary policy - the 2011 loan growth target.
Steven Sun of HSBC expects the number to emerge during this week’s national economic working conference of top economic policymakers. A big cut from this year’s Rmb7,500bn ($1,300bn) of new loans is likely. If the inflation hawks prevail, the number could be as low as Rmb6,000bn. If the pro-growth camp wins, it will be nearer Rmb7,000bn.
Sun says in a note on Tuesday that the decision really matters to the economy and to the corporate profits outlook. He writes:
'A Rmb1trn variation implies 12% EPS [earnings per share] swing for MSCI China and a similar level of index movement (everything else being equal). Market is speculating the quota could be as low as Rmb6trn (inflation-control camp) or as high as Rmb7trn (pro-growth camp).
China’s economic growth is heavily addicted to new credit and not surprisingly, corporate profits historically have also been driven by and correlated with new credit.'
As Sun’s chart shows, even the Rmb6,000bn figure would be a sharp increase over the pre-crisis average, showing what a flood of credit will still be flowing through the economy. Little wonder there is so much concern about inflation. With the authorities squezing the property market to control prices, the liquidity is bound to bubble up to the surface in other sectors.
Meanwhile, the China Securities Journal, an official publication, has added to the speculation that an interest rate hike is imminent. According to Reuters, the paper says on its front page that there was offered a “sensitive window” for an interest rate rise next weekend, just before the release on Monday December 13 of the next set of consumer prices data. Economists expect a rise from the October increase of 4.4 per cent to around 4.7 per cent in year-on-year inflation.
Fears of monetary tightening in response to rising inflation have spooked the equity markets, with Chinese stocks falling around 11 per cent from their recent highs last month, including a 0.65 per cent drop on Tuesday. While the Chinese authorities seem determined to steer a steady course and avoid surprises, there are risks that the country’s economy will not respond fast enough to their policies and that the global economy remains capable of delivering nasty shocks.
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