自从1994年西尔维奥•贝卢斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)领导的第一届政府在上台后仅仅几个月便分崩离析以来，意大利一直在和贝卢斯科尼告别。但是本周二，这位丑闻缠身的意大利总理在国会的不信任投票中险胜，再次显示出他强大的生存能力。
凭借在意大利下议院仅仅三票的多数优势，这位74岁的亿万富翁能否呆得长久还存在疑问，意大利仍有可能提前举行议会选举。但就目前而言，贝卢斯科尼可以理直气壮地宣称没有其他选择——无论是在反对党中还是他自己的政党内部。
意大利议会本周进行了为期两天的热烈辩论，最终演变成一场争吵。反对党领袖将这位总理描绘成一名贪赃枉法、喜欢寻欢作乐、自私自利的商人，让意大利在国际舞台上蒙羞，还通过立法来规避自己面临的法律诉讼——维基解密披露的美国外交电报被当作了证据。
然而，仔细阅读这些电报便可发现，美国人不仅对贝卢斯科尼处理不断增加的国内问题的能力进行了具有前瞻性的分析，而且还指出了他的有用之处，尽管他劣迹累累。
“由于他的个人怪癖，在公共场合的失态行为，以及有时难以预测的政策判断，人们或许很容易把贝卢斯科尼当做一个插科打诨的传话者而不加重视，但我们认为这将是一个错误，”美国资深外交官员伊莉莎白•迪布尔(Elizabeth Dibble)在2009年6月上交给巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统的简报中写到。“尽管存在缺点，但在过去的15年里，贝卢斯科尼一直是意大利政坛的试金石，而且所有迹象都表明未来几年他将掌权。”
简报提到，贝卢斯科尼与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)可能腐败的关系以及意大利与伊朗的商业来往令人不安，但美国驻罗马大使馆仍然指出，贝卢斯科尼“不顾国内政治风险，始终会满足我们最重要的（军事）请求”。
迪布尔写到，美国在意大利设有6个军事基地，共有1.5万名人员，这些军事设施“提供了无可比拟的行动自由，对我们在地中海、中东和北非地区的维稳能力至关重要”。
贝卢斯科尼能够巧妙处理他与普京亲密的私人关系，同时保持在华盛顿眼中的重要性，这在作为意大利政界和商界特征的裙带关系中也有所反映。
“如果说西尔维奥•贝卢斯科尼治理意大利的方式无可挽回地损害了他的形象，那么他依然能够留任，也反映出贝卢斯科尼已经改变了意大利，”作家兼学者杰夫•安德鲁斯(Geoff Andrews)表示。“人皆有价的观点已成为意大利政治体制的特征，”他补充道。“贝卢斯科尼已经侵蚀了意大利公共生活的核心。”
对于贝卢斯科尼（以及其它党派领袖）而言，一个关键的权力杠杆是在其上届政府通过的选举制度，甚至连主管官员都曾经斥之为“垃圾”。意大利人不是选举议员，而是对一份由党派领袖选定的名单投票，而即使在选举结果出来后，这份名单还可以被篡改。
反对派政客宣称，在不信任投票举行很久之前，贝卢斯科尼的说客们就将目标转向了这样的议员：出于这样或那样的原因，他们知道自己在本党内已无前途，但有可能在总理亲自挑选的名单中获得一席之地，加入总理的律师、医生甚至口腔保健医师之列。
“我们是一个没有党派的寡头集团，”贝卢斯科尼曾经的盟友、中间党派基督徒民主人士联盟(UDC)领袖皮埃尔•费尔迪南多•卡西尼(Pier Ferdinando Casini)承认。
就在不信任投票前不久，贝卢斯科尼在公开场合亲吻了卡西尼，后来又邀请他的政党重新加入扩大后的执政联盟。卡西尼拒绝了邀请，贝卢斯科尼只得承认，他需要拉拢独立议员支撑自己的多数派地位。
这些都无益于建立一个稳定的政府，此外，尽管贝卢斯科尼年岁已高，对于他的健康状况也存在疑问，但现在执政党内没有一个现成的继承人选。正如一位对总理持批评态度的政府官员所说：“现在没有退出策略。只有退出。这就是问题所在。”
译者/管婧
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001036071
Italy has been saying a long goodbye to Silvio Berlusconi ever since his first government collapsed in 1994 after a few months. But by scraping through a confidence vote in parliament on Tuesday, the scandal-ridden prime minister has again demonstrated his powers of survival.
Whether the 74-year-old billionaire can last long with a majority of just three votes in the chamber of deputies remains in doubt, with early elections still a likely outcome. For the moment, however, Mr Berlusconi can rightly claim there is no alternative – either in the opposition or from within his own party.
In two days of heated parliamentary debate this week that climaxed in a brawl, opposition leaders portrayed the prime minister as a corrupt, hard-partying, self-interested businessman who had brought shame to Italy on the international stage while passing laws to evade pending court cases against him. US diplomatic cables exposed by WikiLeaks were brandished as evidence.
Yet a closer reading of those cables reveals not just prescient analysis by the Americans of Mr Berlusconi’s ability to cope with his mounting domestic problems, but also his usefulness, whatever his flaws.
“It might be tempting to dismiss Berlusconi as a frivolous interlocutor, with his personal foibles, public gaffes and sometimes unpredictable policy judgment, but we believe this would be a mistake,” Elizabeth Dibble, a senior diplomat, wrote in a briefing for Barack Obama, US president, in June 2009. “Despite his faults, Berlusconi has been the touchstone of Italian politics for the last 15 years, and every indication is that he will be around for years to come.”
Misgivings were noted over a possibly corrupt relationship with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Italy’s commercial ties with Iran, but the US embassy in Rome still pointed out that Mr Berlusconi “has invariably come through on our top [military] requests, despite domestic political risks”.
US military facilities with 15,000 personnel on six bases in Italy “provide unmatched freedom of action and are critical to our ability to project stability into the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa”, Ms Dibble wrote.
Mr Berlusconi’s ability to finesse his close personal ties with Mr Putin while remaining important for Washington is mirrored by the clientelism that characterises the twin Italian worlds of politics and business.
“If Silvio Berlusconi is irredeemably tarnished by the manner in which he has ruled Italy, his capacity to remain in office also reflects the way that Berlusconismo has changed Italy,” comments Geoff Andrews, author and academic. “It is a political regime which has become characterised by the view that everyone has their price,” he adds. “Berlusconismo has corroded the heart of Italian public life.”
A key lever of power for Mr Berlusconi – and other party leaders – is the electoral system passed under his previous government that even the official in charge once described as “crap”. Italians do not choose their MPs, voting instead for a list chosen by party leaders that can then be manipulated after the results are in.
Opposition politicians alleged that, well ahead of the confidence vote, Mr Berlusconi’s lobbyists homed in on those deputies who knew, for one reason or another, that they had no future in their own party but could be guaranteed a place on the prime minister’s handpicked lists, joining his lawyers, doctor and even dental hygienist.
“We are an oligarchy without parties,” admitted Pier Ferdinando Casini, head of the centrist UDC party and a former ally of Mr Berlusconi.
Just before the vote Mr Berlusconi planted a public kiss on Mr Casini and afterwards invited his party to rejoin the fold in an enlarged coalition. Mr Casini refused, leaving Mr Berlusconi to acknowledge that he would need to attract individual MPs to shore up his majority.
All this does not make for stable government, and despite Mr Berlusconi’s age and questions over his health there is no clear successor in the ruling party. As one official critical of the premier put it: “There is no exit strategy. There is only exit. That is the problem.”
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