对
于中国来说，2012年最大的问题便是：谁将成为新的领导人？2012年，中国下一个10年中的新一届领导班子将走到台前。最关键的时刻就是明年10月或11月召开的中共十八大。届时，领导人登台的顺序将表明他们在新一届领导班子中位置。对于中国这个全球第二大经济体来说，这一次领导层换届的时间也是中国经济发展进入至关重要的阶段的时间。
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外界普遍预计，中国国家副主席习近平将成为新一任国家主席。
然而，在未来几个月，无论是即将卸任的这一代领导人，还是即将上任的新一代领导人，他们都没有进行重大变革的动力。即将离任的中共中央总书记胡锦涛和国务院总理温家宝不会冒着可能损害政治声誉的风险去推行那些会造成短期痛苦却被继任者得了好处的改革。在权力交接的过程中，对于明显可能成为继任者的习近平和李克强来说，符合其利益的做法莫过于遵循党的既定路线，继而巩固自己的地位。
即便是在中国的第五代领导人正式入主中南海之后，当前这届领导班子引入的更加注重共识的决策过程也会限制他们的政策选择。新一届领导集体必须和国有企业、地方政府和出口企业这三方当前经济体制下的受益者达成妥协。
但妥协并不一定意味着改革出现停滞。布鲁金斯学会（Brookings Institution）研究中国政治领导人的学者李成说，新的领导人意味着新的政策。在上台第一年，胡、温二人通过彻底转变公共卫生危机的应对方式而声名大振。他们终止了遮遮掩掩的做法，拿下了不称职的官员。此后，他们将政策重心更多地转移至快速增长的中国经济所遗留的问题。
习近平和李克强也有机会展现类似的决断力：他们可以消除2009至2010年的大规模经济刺激对银行、地方政府融资平台以及房地产行业造成的种种负面影响。两人面对的更大挑战是，重新调整中国经济的增长模式，让家庭部门成为推动需求的一种动力。
布鲁金斯学会的李成说，从上任伊始算起，新一届领导班子将有两年的蜜月期，他们可以利用这段时间在中国的经济和政治体制上留下属于自己的烙印。这也是许多市场人士给出的中国现有的经济增长模式在失去动力以前所剩下的时间。所剩时间或许并不宽裕，但中国新一代领导集体仍有令政策得以推行的机会。他们最好充分利用这个机会。
TOM ORLIK
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
The big question for China in the year ahead: who will rule?
In 2012, the country will unveil its new slate of leaders for the next decade. The key moment will be the Party Congress岸expected to take place in October or November岸when the order in which leaders march onto the stage will signify their rank in the new regime. The transition comes at a critical moment for the world's second-largest economy.
Many economists believe the current investment and export-heavy growth model has only a few years left to run. Even before that, a volatile cocktail of local government debt, real-estate slowdown and fragile banking system threatens to cause a major disruption.
Yet in the months ahead, neither the old guard nor the new guys have an incentive to rock the boat. Outgoing Party Secretary Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao will not risk their reputations on reforms that cause short-term pain and whose benefits are reaped by their successors. In the transition, the interest of heirs apparent Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang also lies in consolidating their position by toeing the party line.
Even when China's fifth-generation leaders are ensconced behind the big desk in Zhongnanhai, China's equivalent to the White House, a more consensus-oriented decision-making process introduced by the current regime constrains policy options. New leaders will have to find compromises with state-owned enterprises, local governments and exporters岸all beneficiaries of the economic status quo.
Compromise, though, does not necessarily mean stasis. 'New leaders mean new policies,' says Cheng Li, an expert on China's leadership at the Brookings Institution. Messrs. Hu and Wen made a mark in their first year with a decisive shift in response to a public health crisis岸ending a cover-up and firing inept officials. Later, they moved policy to focus more on those left behind by China's rapid growth.
Messrs. Xi and Li will have a chance to show similar decisiveness in cleaning up the negative effects of the 2009-10 stimulus on the banks, local government finances and the real-estate sector. A bigger challenge will be reorienting China's growth model to bring households into play as a driver of demand.
The Brookings' Mr. Li says that the new leaders will have two years of goodwill from the beginning of their term to make a distinctive mark on China's economic and political system. That's also the length of time many in the markets give China's existing growth model before it runs out of steam. It might be narrow, but China's new leaders will have a window to get policies through. They had better make the most of it.
TOM ORLIK
In 2012, the country will unveil its new slate of leaders for the next decade. The key moment will be the Party Congress岸expected to take place in October or November岸when the order in which leaders march onto the stage will signify their rank in the new regime. The transition comes at a critical moment for the world's second-largest economy.
Many economists believe the current investment and export-heavy growth model has only a few years left to run. Even before that, a volatile cocktail of local government debt, real-estate slowdown and fragile banking system threatens to cause a major disruption.
Yet in the months ahead, neither the old guard nor the new guys have an incentive to rock the boat. Outgoing Party Secretary Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao will not risk their reputations on reforms that cause short-term pain and whose benefits are reaped by their successors. In the transition, the interest of heirs apparent Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang also lies in consolidating their position by toeing the party line.
Even when China's fifth-generation leaders are ensconced behind the big desk in Zhongnanhai, China's equivalent to the White House, a more consensus-oriented decision-making process introduced by the current regime constrains policy options. New leaders will have to find compromises with state-owned enterprises, local governments and exporters岸all beneficiaries of the economic status quo.
Compromise, though, does not necessarily mean stasis. 'New leaders mean new policies,' says Cheng Li, an expert on China's leadership at the Brookings Institution. Messrs. Hu and Wen made a mark in their first year with a decisive shift in response to a public health crisis岸ending a cover-up and firing inept officials. Later, they moved policy to focus more on those left behind by China's rapid growth.
Messrs. Xi and Li will have a chance to show similar decisiveness in cleaning up the negative effects of the 2009-10 stimulus on the banks, local government finances and the real-estate sector. A bigger challenge will be reorienting China's growth model to bring households into play as a driver of demand.
The Brookings' Mr. Li says that the new leaders will have two years of goodwill from the beginning of their term to make a distinctive mark on China's economic and political system. That's also the length of time many in the markets give China's existing growth model before it runs out of steam. It might be narrow, but China's new leaders will have a window to get policies through. They had better make the most of it.
TOM ORLIK
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