中国的崛起常常显得如此不可避免，以致人们很容易就会忽略横亘在其前进道路上的种种障碍。
巨大的短期风险来自资产泡沫。近两年的货币刺激，加上不断上涨的工资，使中国很容易受到一轮通胀的冲击——或者更糟。鉴于储蓄水平高企，投资渠道缺乏，目前处于负值的实际利率，使国内投资者有过度投机之虞。房地产市场风险尤高，但近几月来中国艺术品、中药和大蒜等的价格也都出现了大幅飙升。
中国央行前顾问樊纲表示："如果中国能够成功预防资产泡沫的形成，我们未来就有六、七成的几率维持经济增长。"换句话说，中国有三、四成的可能性不能维持经济增长。
获取能源供应也构成了巨大挑战。目前，中国只有不到5%的人拥有汽车。假如中国的汽车保有率上升到发达国家水平（如美国的75%左右），那么中国的石油进口就需要比目前的50%还要高。接下来还有如何以环境可持续性方式发展的问题。污染已经是造成社会不安定的一个主要因素。要维持工厂运转和城市发展，中国未来多年仍将依赖于其庞大的煤炭储量，尽管这是世界上最肮脏的能源之一。
经济学家还担心目前就人均水平而言仍较为贫困的中国会未富先老。人口较年轻的印度据称将拥有很大的人口优势。但印度的人均收入水平不及中国的三分之一，和中国还有很大差距。
印度历史学家拉玛昌德拉•古哈(Ramachandra Guha)表示，印度必须改善教育体制，创造数百万个就业机会。那些"迫切希望印度坐上贵宾席的人，往往来自德里和孟买"，他将这两个城市的相对富裕，与农村地区的贫困、暴力和不完善的基础设施进行了对比，表示"印度的增长故事具有很大的选择性"。
对中国来说，最大的长期问题依然是政治体制。虽然过去20年，中共凭借其灵活性使种种预期落空，但当今最富裕的国家中鲜少有实行一党制的。相比之下，印度起码是个民主国家。中国高层领导人如今公开表态说，建设现代化经济的需要，要求进行政治改革。逐渐转向一种较为多元的体制是有可能的事；不能排除今后可能面临一段痛苦的不稳定时期。
译者/杨远
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035745
China's rise often seems so inevitable it is easy to overlook the obstacles in its way.
The big short-term risk is from asset bubbles. The monetary stimulus of the past two years, combined with rising wages, has left China vulnerable to a bout of inflation – or worse. Given high savings levels and a lack of investment options, today's negative real interest rates create a threat of speculative excesses by domestic investors. Property is at particular risk but in recent months there have been big jumps in the prices of Chinese art, medicinal herbs and garlic.
"If China can successfully prevent the formation of an asset bubble, we have a 60 to 70 per cent chance of sustaining economic growth in the future," says Fan Gang, a former central bank adviser. Put another way, there is a 30-40 per cent chance that it cannot.
Securing energy supplies also poses huge challenges. At present, fewer than 5 per cent own a car. If ownership approaches developed-country levels – about 75 per cent in the US, for example – oil imports even greater than the 50 per cent required today will be needed. Then there is the question of how to grow in an environmentally sustainable fashion. Pollution is already a main cause of unrest. To power its factories and cities, China will remain dependent on its large deposits of coal, one of the dirtiest forms of energy, for years.
Economists also worry that China, still moderately poor in per capita terms, will grow old before it grows rich. India, with its younger population, is said to have a big demographic advantage. With a per capita income less than one-third of China's, however, it has much ground to make up.
Ramachandra Guha, an Indian historian, says his country must improve its education system and create millions of jobs. Those "keen for India to take its place at the high table tend to be in Delhi and Mumbai", he says, contrasting the cities' relative wealth with the poverty, violence and inadequate infrastructure of rural areas. "This growth story is highly selective."
For China, the biggest long-term problem remains the political system. While the Communist party has confounded expectations with its resilience in the past two decades, there are few one-party states among the world's richest nations. India, by contrast, is at least a democracy. Beijing's senior leaders today say openly that the demands of a modern economy will require political reform. A gradual shift to a more plural system is a possibility; a wrenching period of instability cannot be ruled out.
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