金正日(Kim Jong-il)目前染病在身、被外界孤立，同时正在经历生命中最大的一次冒险：将权力移交给自己尚未经受过考验、年方27岁的儿子。他手上一共没有几张牌，但本周，却打出了其中的两张。而按照平壤牌戏中扭曲的逻辑，这两张都是王牌。
第一张王牌，是向全世界透露了到访的美国核科学家西格弗里德•赫克尔(Siegfried Hecker)所描述的情景：一家拥有至少1000台离心机、“现代化程度令人震惊的”铀浓缩设施。长期以来，美国政府一直怀疑金正日拥有这样一座设施，但没有证据。想象一下，当美国发现该设施就在自己的眼皮底下时，它是多么吃惊。这些熠熠生辉的离心机邻近宁边一家废弃的钚反应堆，而这里受到美国卫星的严密监视。美国前国家安全顾问维克托•查(Victor Cha)将美国情报机构的此次失察，称作是“最可怕的噩梦”。
第二张王牌不难捉摸，但其效果并没有因此打折——金正日本周二下午打出了这张牌。朝鲜军队向一个韩国岛屿发动炮击，造成两名韩军士兵丧生，一些平民和士兵受伤。
与去年3月份的情形不同——当时朝鲜偷偷摸摸地袭击了韩国海军舰艇天安号(Cheonan)，造成46名船员死亡——这一次朝鲜方面没有否认进行炮击。或许，这正是关键所在。朝鲜为何要打出这两张牌？对于一个美国东亚事务助理国务卿科特•坎贝尔(Kurt Campbell)称之为“黑箱”的国家来说，回答上述问题并不容易。但进行一些合理的猜测还是可能的。
韩国首尔延世大学(Yonsei University)国际事务专家Min Gyo Koo表示，为了让金正恩(Kim Jong-eun)的法定继承人身份合法化，金正日正为自己的儿子谋求胜利。“这是为了帮助金正恩，巩固其军队领袖地位，并顺利完成交接，”他表示，“这是一次豪赌。但如果他获胜，那么将是一场大捷。”
第二个动机，可能是为了让美国政府重新回到谈判桌上。原本旨在说服朝鲜放弃核武计划的六方会谈已暂时搁置。经过了两次核试验、以及数次令人瞩目的挑衅举动，几乎没人会真的以为朝鲜有意放弃核武器。那么，朝鲜进行六方会谈的唯一目标，将是以微小的让步为条件，敲诈国际社会的金钱和能源供应。这可不是什么有吸引力的主张。
金正日打出的“高筹码扑克”(high-stakes poker)，将韩国保守派总统李明博(Lee Myung Bak)置于糟糕的境地。至少在天安舰沉没后，由于没有仓促掀起一场军事冲突，李明博受到了赞誉。这一次，由于在攻击发起者方面毫无悬念，在如何应对上，他可能面临更大的压力。甚至在周二的炮击事件前，他的国防部长就提出了一个禁忌话题——重新部署1991年撤出的战术核武器。按照接下来的事态发展，李明博可能会发现，自己必须做出某种军事回应。这将引发这样一种风险：即朝鲜将双方之间的敌意进一步升级。考虑到朝鲜坐拥大批导弹和百万大军，这并非儿戏。朝鲜还控制着在开城工业园区工作的近1000名韩国“人质”。同时，韩国也无法指望中国约束这位朝鲜“门客”。天安号事件之后，李明博当时似乎觉得，自己能够说服中国谴责此次袭击事件。但中国拒绝谴责朝鲜，而且在今年8月份，甚至邀请金正日正式访华。外界对此的猜测是：这位朝鲜领导人从北京获得了现金以及对其接班计划的认可。
上月，李明博向英国《金融时报》保证，对于北京方面铺下红地毯接待金正日的做法，他并未感到不满。他回避了中国是否支持朝鲜的话题，而是表示，对于金正日出访已彰显出经济开放益处的中国，他表示欢迎。
将改造朝鲜的工作外包给中国，看上去像一种绝望的策略。这表明了韩国政府——乃至美国政府——手中的牌有多少。外界担心的是，要对付朝鲜打出的两张王牌，西方只能拿出一副被追爆了的同花顺。
译者/梁艳裳
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035717
Kim Jong-il is sick, isolated and in the midst of one of the most risky ventures of his life – handing over power to his untested, 27-year-old son. He has few cards in his hand, but this week he played two of them. And, in the twisted logic of Pyongyang poker, they were both aces.
The first was to reveal to the world what Siegfried Hecker, a visiting US nuclear scientist, described as “an astonishingly modern” uranium enrichment facility with at least 1,000 centrifuges. Washington had long suspected Mr Kim had such a facility, but no proof. Imagine its surprise to discover that it was right under its nose. The sparkling centrifuges were close to a disabled plutonium reactor at Yongbyon, a site intensely monitored by US satellites. Victor Cha, a former US national security adviser, described the failure of US intelligence as one’s “worst nightmare”.
The second ace – hardly subtle, but no less effective for that – was played on Tuesday afternoon. North Korea’s military launched an artillery barrage against a South Korean island, killing two troops, and injuring several civilians and troops.
Unlike last March, when Pyongyang killed 46 sailors in a surreptitious attack on the Cheonan, a South Korean naval ship, there was no denying the artillery assault came from north of the border. That, presumably, was the whole point. Why play these two cards? This is not easy to answer of a country that Kurt Campbell, US assistant secretary of state for east Asian affairs, has called a “black box”. But some reasonable guesswork is possible.
Min Gyo Koo, an expert in international affairs at Seoul’s Yonsei university, says Mr Kim is seeking victories for his son, Kim Jong-eun, in order to legitimise his installation as heir apparent. “This is designed to promote Kim Jong-eun, to solidify his military leadership and the succession,” he says. “It is a huge gamble. But if he wins this game, it will be an enormous victory.”
A secondary motive could be to get Washington back to the negotiating table. Six-party talks supposedly aimed at persuading Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons programme have stalled. After two nuclear tests, and several other acts of pyrotechnic defiance, few can seriously imagine Pyongyang has any intention of giving up its weapons. The only aim of talks, then, would be to extort money and energy supplies from the international community in return for minor concessions. It is not an attractive proposition.
Mr Kim’s high-stakes poker puts Lee Myung-bak, the conservative president of South Korea, in a terrible position. At least after the sinking of the Cheonan he won praise for not rushing into a military conflict. This time, with no ambiguity about who ordered the attack, he may be under more pressure to respond. Even before Tuesday’s barrage, his defence minister had broached the taboo subject of redeploying tactical nuclear weapons removed in 1991. Depending on what happens next, Mr Lee may yet feel he has to launch some kind of military response. That would invite the risk of Pyongyang escalating hostilities still further, no light undertaking given that North Korea is bristling with missiles and a million-man army. Pyongyang also has control of nearly 1,000 South Korean “hostages” working at the Kaesong industrial enclave in the North. Nor can South Korea expect China to rein in its North Korean client. After the Cheonan incident, Mr Lee seemed to think he could persuade Beijing to condemn the attack. But China refused to put the blame on North Korea and, in August, even invited Mr Kim on an official visit. While there, the presumption is the North Korean leader got cash and Beijing’s acceptance of his succession plans.
Last month, Mr Lee assured the Financial Times that he was not upset at Beijing for laying out the red carpet. Skirting the issue of whether China was propping up North Korea, he said he welcomed Mr Kim’s exposure to a China that showed the benefits of opening up one’s economy.
Outsourcing the job of reforming North Korea to Beijing seems like a desperate strategy. It is a mark of how few cards Seoul – and by extension Washington – has left to play. The worry is that, in response to Pyongyang’s two aces, all that the west has to show for itself is a busted flush.
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035717/en
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