正如平壤方面也许已经意料到的,国际社会对其炮击延坪岛(Yeonpyeong island)的反应,在语气和内容上都大相径庭。朝鲜将寻求利用这种反差。
在美国,巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的白宫迅速作出了愤怒的反应,要求平壤方面“停止其好战行为”,强调美国“坚决致力于保卫韩国盟友”和“维持地区和平与稳定”。
美国国防部长罗伯特•盖茨(Robert Gates)与韩国防长进行了交谈,同时军方官员表示,2.8万驻韩美军正“密切监视局势”。美国还坚称,其对朝方的要求不会动摇,即平壤方面必须向关停核计划迈出“可信、可核查的步骤”,美方才可能与这个斯大林主义政权进行任何谈判。
“不存在挑衅和奖励的游戏——我们不会回到那种循环,”一名美国官员表示——暗指前几届美国政府曾企图劝诱朝鲜改变行为,坐到谈判桌前。但他补充表示,美国将不会就未来步骤作出单方面决定,而是将与朝核问题六方会谈的其它合作伙伴一起,“作出深思熟虑的协同回应”。
但是,朝核问题六方会谈成员之一、对朝鲜具有最大影响力的中国,对近日事件作出了明显不同的反应。
在朝核问题上,中国赞成尽快重启六方会谈,并不赞同美方强调朝鲜有必要首先采取行动的观点。而对于周二的朝韩相互炮击事件,中国呼吁各方冷静。
中国外交部发言人洪磊周二呼吁朝鲜和韩国“共同致力于维护朝鲜半岛的和平稳定”。他还表示:“我们注意到有关报道,对事态表示关注。”
中国军事观察人士彭光谦少将称,这是一次意外发生的事件。他补充说,他认为这起事件与朝鲜半岛的整体形势没有关系,各方现在都应当避免局势升级。
中国分析人士称,周二的攻击主要反映了朝鲜的内部政治,但对北京方面仍是一个挑战。
某中国官方智库的研究员王俊生表示,这对中国外交构成一个棘手的问题——中国被视为对朝鲜具有最大影响力,因此如果中国不能在这起事件过后恢复事态平静,那(对北京方面来说)将是一大挫折。
分析人士表示,朝鲜全面崩溃的前景迫使中国维持其对金正日的支持,尽管双方的分歧越来越大。
北京方面担心,如果朝鲜崩溃,800多英里长的中朝边境可能出现难民潮,而且如果朝韩统一,美军可能部署到中国边界。
与此同时,日本一名官员表示,应当把炮击事件放在平壤领导权交接的大背景下看待,这起事件不太可能引发更广泛的军事行动。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035697
Just as Pyongyang may have anticipated, the responses of the international players to its bombardment of Yeonpyeong island have differed significantly in tone and substance – a contrast North Korea will seek to exploit.
Barack Obama’s White House reacted early and angrily, calling on Pyongyang to “halt its belligerent action” and underlining that it was “firmly committed to the defence of its South Korean ally” and “the maintenance of regional peace and stability”.
Robert Gates, US defence secretary, spoke to his South Korean counterpart, while military officials said the 28,000 US troops in the country were “closely monitoring the situation”. The US also insisted t would not waver in its demand that Pyongyang offer “credible, verifiable steps” towards shutting down its nuclear programme before any negotiations with the Stalinist state could begin.
“These isn’t a game of provocation and reward – we are not going to get back into that cycle,” said a US official, alluding to previous administrations’ inducements for North Korea to change its ways and sit down at the negotiating table. He added, however, that the US would not decide unilaterally on future steps but instead “take a considered co-ordinated response” with its partners in the six-party talks on North Korea’s programme.
But China – a fellow member in the talks and the country that has the most influence over North Korea – has reacted markedly differently to the past few days’ events.
On the nuclear file, China favours a swift return to the six-party talks, and does not share the US emphasis on the need for Pyongyang to make the first move, while in response to Tuesday’s missile exchange, it issued a call for calm.
Hong Lei, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, called on Tuesday for both North and South “to do more to contribute to peace and stability on the peninsula”. He added: “We express our concern over the situation.”
Major-General Peng Guangqian, a military affairs observer, called the incident an “accidental occurrence”, adding: “I don’t see that this is connected to the broader situation on the Korean peninsula; all sides should now avoid fanning the flames.”
Chinese analysts said Tuesday’s attack primarily reflected internal North Korean politics – but represented a challenge for Beijing all the same.
“This poses a tricky question for Chinese diplomacy – China is seen as having the most influence over North Korea so if it cannot restore calm in the wake of this incident it will be a major setback [for Beijing],” said Wang Junsheng, a researcher at one of China’s government think-tanks.
Analysts say the prospect of North Korea collapsing has forced China to maintain its support for Kim Jong-il, despite growing differences between the sides.
Beijing fears a potential flood of refugees that could come cross the 800km Sino-Korean border if the North collapsed, as well as the prospect of US troops stationed along the border if the Koreas were unified.
Meanwhile, a Japanese official said the shelling should be seen in the context of Pyongyang’s leadership transition and was unlikely to herald the launch of wider military action.
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