2010年11月26日

朝鲜考验中国耐心 Pyongyang Tests China's Patience

Kyodo /Landov
炮击后的创伤:人们周四在延平岛的废墟上巡视,这次炮击事件激起了国际上的批评并使朝鲜和中国的关系紧张。

鲜针对韩国发起的最新攻击行为已经在中国激起新一轮公开辩论。人们在讨论,朝鲜曾经是中国的亲密盟友,却越来越多地让中国在国际社会难堪,对于这样一个邻国,应该怎样管理与它的关系?

政府官员对朝鲜炮击韩国一座岛上村落一事的回应仍然是谨慎的,远远没有达到批评朝鲜的程度。

国务院总理温家宝在周四说,中国反对针对朝鲜半岛的“任何军事挑衅行为”。温家宝是在访问俄罗斯期间说这番话的,正值美国和韩国准备在黄海举行联合海上军事演习,以回应朝鲜造成人员丧生的袭击。但不清楚温家宝的警告指的是朝鲜的炮击,还是平壤方面声称促使它采取反应措施的韩国军事演习,还是美韩之间计划举行的海上军演。

据中国外交部网站发布的一则声明,温家宝将首尔和平壤之间的这场僵局称为一种“严峻复杂形势”。他呼吁“相关各方应保持最大限度克制”,“国际社会也应多做有利于缓和紧张局势的工作”。

越来越多的迹象表明,中国外交圈和普通大众对于平壤方面的行为感到恼怒。一些人质疑,中国的共产党盟友最近的挑衅行为能给中国带来怎样的利益。

官方媒体不再对朝鲜表现盲目忠诚。民族主义倾向报纸《环球时报》英文版(Global Times)一篇社评文章说,朝鲜通过这次小规模冲突显示了它的强硬,但此举既无助于化解它的经济困境,也不会获得其他国家的理解。《环球时报》对所有与朝鲜半岛有利益关系的国家都予以批评。

它说,朝鲜试图用一种不可思议的方式来保护自己的安全,美国和日本尝试实施经济制裁,结果证明是徒劳的,中国和俄罗斯只能呼吁保持克制。

《环球时报》网站上发表的中文社评文章把朝鲜的行为描述为“对耗费巨大精力的周边大国外交的公开羞辱”。

这种疑似不满的情绪反应出一种矛盾。一方面,中国为世界最秘密、最不可预测的政权之一提供坚定支持,另一方面,北京又希望把它自己描绘成国际社会负责任的一员。

从中还可以看到,力图影响中国外交政策的各方正变得日益多元。在过去,中国外交属于共产党高级领导人的专属领地。

针对美韩周三宣布乔治•华盛顿号(USS George Washington)航空母舰将在黄海同韩国海军举行军事演习,中国外交部发言人洪磊周四的回应相对温和。他说:“我们注意到有关报道,对此表示关注”。

当美国和韩国考虑7月份在朝鲜半岛西部同一处地区举行演习且派出同一艘航母参加时,中国官员表达了强烈抗议,于是韩美在朝鲜半岛以东举行了演习。

洪磊还证实,外交部长杨洁篪由于行程安排方面的原因推迟了原定对韩国的访问。他再次表达了中国对周二交火事件中遇难人员的哀悼。当被问道中国对于事件是如何开始的有着怎样的看法时,洪磊只是说事件的双方有着不同的说法。

中国的首要重点是避免朝鲜政权的突然倒台,它担心这将使大量难民涌向中国东北,并促使如今部署在韩国的约三万名美军移至中国边境。

然而,领导层对公众看法也变得更加敏感。中国国家主席胡锦涛计划于明年1月对美国进行国事访问,中国还将在2012年迎来十年一次的领导层换届。

过去两年来中国一直努力重启“六方会谈”,这一朝鲜、韩国、中国、美国、日本及俄罗斯之间的谈判旨在说服平壤放弃核武器计划。参与会谈的中国前外交官杨希雨说,朝鲜近日的举动使得这些努力变得复杂。

还有些中国专家则表现得更加尖锐,警告说朝鲜领导人金正日眼下在寻求他自身的利益时没有将中国考虑在内。

一名中国外交政策专家说,我们正被朝鲜压制,这种同盟是历史上形成的,如果他们以这种不负责任的方式行事,我们希望抛弃这种同盟。

中国同平壤的紧密关系缔结于朝鲜战争期间,当时有超过18万中国人死于抗美援朝战争。如今中朝间这种密切的关系既可能会破坏中国树立形象的努力,也可能加强美国、日本和韩国之间的联系。

中国由于拒绝在3月份的韩国海军船只沉没事件中谴责朝鲜而受到批评,这起沉船事件令46名船员丧生。胡锦涛主席今年还接待了金正日的两次访华,10月份还派遣一名党内高官前往平壤出席选定金正日第三子为朝鲜下任领导人的庆典活动。

上海复旦大学国际关系专家沈丁立说,中国应该推动对周二的交火事件进行国际调查,以证实朝鲜是否是事件的挑起者。

他说,我们的同盟是建立在共同防御基础上的。如果朝鲜受到攻击我们会为它辩护,但如果它攻击了别人,我们不会为它辩护。

Jeremy Page / Jason Dean

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)
 
 
North Korea's latest act of aggression against the South has prompted a new round of public debate in China on how to manage ties with a neighbor that is at once a close ally but, increasingly, a source of international embarrassment.

The government's official response to North Korea's shelling of a South Korean island village remains cautious, stopping well short of criticism of the North.

In comments reported Thursday, Premier Wen Jiabao said China opposes 'any provocative military behavior' on the Korean peninsula. Mr. Wen was speaking in Russia as the U.S. and South Korea prepare for joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea in response to the deadly attack. But it wasn't clear whether his warning referred to North Korea's attack, or to the South Korean exercises Pyongyang claims to have responded to, or to the planned naval drills between the U.S. and South Korea.

Mr. Wen called the standoff between Seoul and Pyongyang a 'severely complicated situation,' according to a statement posted on the Chinese Foreign Ministry's website. He called for 'all relevant parties to exercise the utmost restraint,' and said 'the international community should do more work to ease the tension of the situation.'

Among Chinese foreign-policy circles and general citizens, there are growing signs of exasperation with Pyongyang's behavior. Some question how Beijing benefits from its old Communist ally's recent provocations

State media no longer display blind loyalty to the North. 'North Korea showed its toughness through the skirmish. But the move neither helps solve its economic plight, nor wins over understanding from other nations,' said an editorial in the Global Times, a generally nationalistic English-language newspaper, which criticized all countries with a stake in the Korean peninsula.

'The North tried to protect its own security in an inconceivable manner,' it said. 'The U.S. and Japan tried economic sanctions, which proved futile. China and Russia could only appeal for restraint.'

A Chinese-language editorial on the newspaper's website described North Korea's actions as a 'public humiliation of the surrounding big countries' painstaking diplomatic efforts.'

The apparent frustration reflects the contradiction between China's staunch support for one of the world's most secretive and unpredictable regimes, and Beijing's desire to portray itself as a responsible member of the international community.

It also highlights the increasingly diverse range of players trying to influence foreign policy in China -- which until recently was the exclusive preserve of the Communist Party's top leaders.

On Thursday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei offered a relatively mild response to an announcement by the U.S. and South Korea on Wednesday that the aircraft carrier USS George Washington would conduct exercises with the South Korean navy in the Yellow Sea just off the Chinese coast. 'We have taken note of the related reports, and express concern on this matter,' he said.

When the U.S. and South Korea considered staging a drill with the same carrier in the same area west of the Korean peninsula in July, Chinese officials vehemently protested, and the two countries instead conducted the drill on the east side of the peninsula.

Mr. Hong also confirmed that Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi has postponed his planned trip to South Korea for 'scheduling reasons.' And he again expressed China's grief over the casualties in the artillery exchange on Tuesday. Asked about China's view of how the incident started, Mr. Hong said only that the two parties involved 'have different stories.'

China's main priority is to prevent any sudden collapse of the North Korean regime, which it fears would flood northeastern China with refugees and allow the roughly 30,000 U.S. troops now in South Korea to move up to the Chinese border.

However, leaders are also increasingly sensitive to public opinion. And China is bracing for a planned state visit by President Hu Jintao to the U.S. in January, and a once-a-decade leadership change in 2012.

China has been trying for the past two years to revive the so-called six-party talks among North and South Korea, China, the U.S., Japan and Russia, which are designed to persuade Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons program. Yang Xiyu, a former Chinese diplomat who took part in the talks, said the North's recent actions had 'complicated' those efforts.

Other Chinese experts went further, warning that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il was now pursuing his own interests without taking China's into account.

'We are being coerced by North Korea,' said one Chinese foreign-policy expert. 'This is an alliance from history, and we want to abandon it if they behave in this irresponsible way.'

Forged during the Korean War, when more than 180,000 Chinese died assisting the North, China's close ties to Pyongyang now threaten both to undermine China's image-building efforts and to strengthen relations among the U.S., Japan, and South Korea.

China attracted criticism by refusing to blame North Korea for March's sinking of a South Korean naval ship, which killed 46 sailors. President Hu also hosted Mr. Kim on two visits to China this year, and in October sent a senior party official to attend a ceremony in Pyongyang to anoint Mr. Kim's third son as the next leader of North Korea.

Shen Dingli, an expert on international relations at Shanghai's Fudan University, said China should push for an international investigation of Tuesday's artillery exchanges to establish whether the North was the aggressor.

'Our alliance is based on mutual defense. We will defend North Korea if it is attacked. But we will not defend it if it attacks someone else,' he said.

Jeremy Page / Jason Dean
 

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