财富杂志：巴菲特：忘掉黄金，买股票吧
作者：Ben Stein 2010年10月25日 来源：中国企业家网
佩铂代因大学法学院教授、经济学家、节目主持人本・斯泰因（Ben Stein）专访沃伦・巴菲特（Warren Buffett）。他在《财富》杂志撰文指出，巴菲特比50岁看起来还精神。“眼睛，听力——一切都运转正常，直到分崩离析。”巴菲特如是说。以下是访谈摘录：
【中国企业家网】坐在巴菲特办公室的沙发里，我的第一问题就是：“黄金怎么样？这是一个经典的泡沫呢，还是什么？”
“瞧，你可以把世界上所有已经开采的黄金堆起来，也就是一个不到67立方英尺（约2立方米）的金属块。按照目前的金价，这个金属块可以换全部——而不是一部分，是全部的美国耕地，再加10个埃克森美孚，再加上1万亿美元现金。你愿意选哪一个？谁能产生更多价值？”巴菲特带着一贯自信的微笑如此回答。
谈及是否真正实现经济复苏，巴菲特毫不迟疑：“没错，经济是在复苏。尽管复苏的进程缓慢，但的确是在复苏。我们正从伯灵顿北方铁路调遣回一部分人，尽管目前还只允许一些人涉足其他行业，但我们看到了美国运通和BNSF货运汽车装载业务正在复苏。纵观我们涉足的业务，能看见缓慢复苏的迹象。”
“你什么时候开始大规模招聘？”
“当需求回升时。”巴菲特答道，“我们不再招聘是因为得到减税，或者政府中有人告诉我们不要这么做。只有我们提供的业务有了更多需求，我们才会雇佣更多人。就是这么简单。”
“如果像你这么大的业务都如此谨慎，需求又从何而来呢？”
“需求已经显现，并将很快回升。2008年秋天，我们需要大规模刺激政策。但是我们没有得到。美国银行在美林大概只值29美分的时候以29美元的价格买下它，这是一个奇迹。假如这件事情没有发生，一切都会崩溃。整个商业票据市场都将停摆，多米诺骨牌将纷纷倒下。伯克希尔是最后倒下的那一块，但最终还是会倒下。肯・刘易斯（Ken Lewis）一度挽救了整个体系，直到问题资产救助计划最终奏效。但是现在，我们将进入非常缓慢的恢复期，因为人们依旧恐慌。但是毫无疑问的是，我们在复苏中。”
“房市呢？”
“房市的复苏还有很长的路要走。这个市场偏离平衡太远，需要很长时间才能得以修正。”
谈到税收问题，巴菲特认为应该对真正的美国富人征收更多赋税，这里指那些年收入500万美元，特别是10亿美元的那些人。
“我们为什么要这么做？关于巨额财政赤字，我们有明确的财政政策吗？”
“如果谁的儿子或孙子在阿富汗，我肯定给予他高利率的豁免权。我在这类会议上见过许多富人、亿万富翁，他们中却没有一个人的家人在战场。”
（编译：杜博）
Warren Buffett: Forget gold, buy stocks
By Ben Stein, contributorOctober 19, 2010: 2:24 PM ET
http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/18/pf/investing/buffett_ben_stein.fortune/
FORTUNE -- The first thing I notice on my most recent visit with Warren E. Buffett, who recently turned 80, is how incredible he looks. He would look terrific for 50; for 80, he looks like Charles Atlas. He's modest about it, as he is about everything. "It all works great," he says. "The eyes, the hearing -- everything works great ... which it will until it all falls apart."
The second thing you notice is that he is so smart it curls your hair.
My first question, as I sit there on the couch in his office, is: "What about gold? Is this a classic bubble or what?"
"Look," he says, with his usual confident laugh. "You could take all the gold that's ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that's worth at current gold prices, you could buy all -- not some -- all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?"
Okay, so gold is not a screaming buy to Buffett. What should a typical upper-middle-class person in the U.S. buy to prepare for retirement?
"Equities," Buffett answers without a moment's hesitation.
"The VTI?" I ask.
"That's good enough. Maybe a selection of high-dividend-paying stocks that are likely to raise their dividends. Maybe the top 100 dividend payers of the S&P 500."
Then, after a second's thought, he adds, "Well, maybe not that, but equities."
On the $64,000 question -- whether the recovery was real -- Buffett has no doubt. "Yes," he says, "it's a recovery. It's a slow recovery, but it's a recovery. We're calling back some people at Burlington Northern. We are still letting a few go in other businesses, but we see a pickup in business of heavy users of American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), in freight car loadings at BNSF -- across our businesses, we see slow recovery."
"When would you start hiring a lot more people?" I ask him.
"When demand picks up," he says. "We don't hire because we get a tax break or because someone in the government tells us to. We hire when there's more demand for what we are making or moving or selling. It's that simple."
"Where will the demand come from if a business as big as yours is being so cautious?" I ask.
"It's already coming," he says. "It's already happening, and it will pick up. Look," he adds, "we needed a really big stimulus in the fall of 2008 -- a really, really big stimulus. We didn't get it. It was a miracle that Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) bought Merrill for $29 when it was probably worth 29 cents if left on its own for a few days. If that hadn't happened, everything would have collapsed. The whole commercial-paper market would have stopped. Every domino would have fallen. Berkshire (BRKA, Fortune 500) would have been the last, but it would have fallen too. Ken Lewis saved the whole system for a while, until TARP could rescue it. But now we're just going to get a very slow recovery because people are still scared. But we are seeing recovery, definitely."
"How about in housing?"
"That recovery is still a long way off. That market got way out of equilibrium, and it's going to take a long while for it to get fixed."
Buffett goes into his life and childhood, but I don't see how we can make any money out of that, so I will leave that part out.
What about taxes? Buffett thinks that taxes should be raised on really rich Americans -- ones making $5 million a year, say, and especially ones making $1 billion a year.
"Why would we want to do that" I ask, "if we have a fiscal policy that is explicitly about running large deficits?"
The three of us -- Buffett, my colleague Phil deMuth,and I -- talked for a long time about the size of the deficits relative to "normal peacetime" and World War II, when they were far higher than they are even now. Then Buffett sums up his feelings about it, saying his wish to raise taxes on the very rich is really about social justice more than about fiscal policy.
"I would give anyone an exemption from the higher rates if he had a son or grandson in Afghanistan," he said. "I meet a lot of people at these conferences of rich people, of billionaires," he said. "None of them have anyone in their family in combat."
We talk awhile longer, and then Phil and Warren and I go out for a memorable Italian meal at Piccolo Pete's, which Warren considers the best restaurant in America. I look at him as he chews his meatballs. (He has perfect table manners.)
"This guy is so smart -- it's like he's a machine, but a very friendly, polite, affable machine," I think.
I keep thinking of what I would do if I had even the tiniest fraction of his money. But I never will, so I'll skip that too.
Buffett drives us back to the hotel in his lovely Cadillac. "I bought it because a couple of years ago I saw Congress giving Rick Wagoner (the former CEO of GM) such a going-over that I thought I should help him out by buying a Cadillac."
"Cadillac," I think, remembering an old Bob Dylan song. "Good car to drive, after a war."
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