2010年11月23日

中国慎对朝韩炮击事件 Cautious China Airs North's Version

国对朝鲜炮袭韩国岛屿事件表现出一贯的谨慎态度,官方电视媒体重点报道了平壤方面对事件的说法,这使得中国与美国及其他国家的分歧越来越大,这些国家对中国政府不愿遏制其长期的社会主义盟友感到愤怒。

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
美国朝鲜问题特使博斯沃斯周二在北京讲话。
中国是唯一对朝鲜有影响力的国家,向朝鲜输送食品和能源使其政权免于瓦解。然而,随着1950至1953年的朝鲜战争结束以来朝鲜半岛最大的一次危机拉开序幕,中国却避免表明立场。

中国甚至大胆地间接表现出对此事件的漠视,在朝鲜致命炮袭事件发生后仅几个小时,官方媒体新华社就宣布,中国政府访朝代表团已与朝鲜签署了一项经济和贸易合作协定。

近几个月来,中国在南中国海和东中国海频繁声称拥有领土主权,已经触怒了许多亚洲邻国,尤其是日本。

美国和其他西方国家越来越警觉中国在包括贸易、气候变化和人权等方面日益强势的外交。在朝鲜军事上越来越好战之际,中国仍不愿与朝鲜对立,这可能会进一步造成中国与亚洲各国关系的压力,该地区已经对其战略意图紧张不已。

周二,美国朝鲜问题特使博斯沃斯(Stephen Bosworth)抵达北京举行紧急会谈,此前,上周末有消息透露朝鲜大举扩大了核计划。中国政府在核问题上也持保留看法,仅号召朝鲜、韩国、中国、俄罗斯、日本和美国重启六方会谈。

中国外交部发言人洪磊对记者说,中方希望有关各方多做有利于半岛和平稳定的事情。目前的当务之急是尽快重启六方会谈。

然而,中国主要的由政府控制的电视频道在晚间新闻报道时却重点播出了朝鲜对炮击事件的官方说法,指责韩国首先开火,这显示出了中国对朝鲜的偏袒。

随后,新华社报导称,在第六次中朝经济、贸易和科技联合委员会会议期间,中国商务部副部长王和民带领的中国代表团在平壤签署了新的经济和贸易协定。

新华社的报道未透露协定的详细内容,也未提及当日的炮袭事件。

博斯沃斯前往北京的任务是说服中国使用其影响力遏制朝鲜日益严重的挑衅行为。此前两日他在首尔和东京举行会谈。

中国在朝鲜的政治影响力主要源于朝鲜战争。当时中国派遣了数十万志愿军前往朝鲜反击美国领导的联合国军队。如今,中国为朝鲜提供大部分食品和电力,也是朝鲜主要的贸易伙伴和军事后盾。

与杨洁篪举行会晤后,博斯沃斯说,他与中方进行了“有益的”磋商, 双方同意有必要采取多边途径。

但据曾任2004到2005年六方会谈代表的中国前外交官杨希雨说,中国不太可能应别国的要求去向朝鲜施加更大的压力。

杨希雨说,美国希望中国对朝鲜施加更多压力,比如采取制裁措施,但在中国看来,说服朝鲜的最佳办法不是通过制裁,而是通过对话;主要障碍不是压力是否足够的问题,而是怎样减少朝鲜与韩国之间、朝鲜与美国之间的战略互不信任。

杨希雨现在是官方机构中国国际问题研究所高级研究员。他说,朝鲜最近的行动使中国重启六方会谈的努力更加复杂化。

但他说,这恰恰显示了保持耐心的必要性。

作为六方会谈的东道主,中国长期以来努力维持一种不偏不倚的观感,在它看来,这有助于增强它作为国际社会负责任一员的声望。

但多名其他国家的外交官和分析师说,中国公开与不断挑战韩国容忍极限的朝鲜政府保持亲善关系,这正在削弱中国增强其声望的努力。他们举例说,一项国际调查将韩国军舰“天安号”(Cheonan) 3月份沉没、造成46人丧生的事件归咎于朝鲜,中国拒绝承认这一调查结果。

但这一次中国或许很难阻止联合国安全理事会(Security Council)对朝鲜发表谴责,因为炮袭事件发生在光天化日之下,而且有电视直播。

延世大学校(Yonsei University)国际学研究生院助理教授德勒里(John Delury)说,此事进展比天安号事件快得多,所以我预计它将很快进入联合国,这样中国就没有时间利用它平常使用的拖延然后不了了之的战术。他说,中国外交官将在未来几天想方设法让此事重新回到谈判中来,而这将是很难做到的。

今年8月份,身体状况不佳的朝鲜领导人金正日突访中国,同国家主席胡锦涛会晤,这是他今年第二次访问中国。为了此次会晤,胡锦涛罕见地专程赶到临近中朝边境的中国东北。两个邻国在战争中形成、又因为两国执政党紧密关系而得到维系的兄弟情谊,在这出外交大戏中彰显无遗。

从未证实的传言说,金正日访问中国期间有他的第三子金正恩陪同。金正恩在今年9月份被指定为朝鲜的下一任领导人。

中国的主要关切不是怎样防止朝鲜开发核武器,而是确保朝鲜政府不至于突然瓦解,从而造成大量难民通过边境涌入中国东北地区。

中国专家还普遍认为,一个强大而统一的朝鲜半岛是对中国的威胁,因为那样会使美国的一个关键盟国出现在中国的边境,最后中国人民解放军将与数千驻韩美军直接面对面。

位于华盛顿的智库美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)朝鲜问题专家埃伯施塔特(Nicholas Eberstadt)说,在这一过程中不可以把中国视为一个中肯的调停人,六方会谈已经从一个为朝鲜去核化而努力的论坛,变成一个承认朝鲜核现状的圆桌会议。

Jeremy Page

(更新完成)

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)
 
 
China reacted with customary caution to North Korea's shelling of a South Korean island, giving prominence on state television to Pyongyang's version of events, in a response that places Beijing increasingly at odds with the U.S. and other countries frustrated with its unwillingness to rein in an old socialist ally.

China is the one country with leverage over North Korea, keeping the regime from collapse with shipments of food and energy. Yet, as one of the worst crises on the Korean peninsula since the 1950-53 Korean War unfolds, China has avoided taking sides.

Beijing even risked appearing to implicitly brush off the incident, with its state-run Xinhua news agency announcing just hours after the deadly North Korean attack that a Chinese government delegation visiting North Korea had signed a new deal on economic and trade cooperation with its neighbor.

China has already antagonized many of its Asian neighbors -- particularly Japan -- by making more assertive territorial claims in the South and East China Seas in recent months.

The U.S. and many other Western countries are growing increasingly alarmed at China's more muscular diplomacy on a range of issues, including trade, climate change and human rights. China's unwillingness to go against North Korea, even as it escalates its military belligerence, is likely to further strain its relations in a region nervous about its strategic intentions.

Stephen Bosworth, special U.S. envoy for North Korea, arrived in Beijing for emergency talks Tuesday following the weekend's revelations about North Korea has dramatically expanded its nuclear program. The Chinese government also reserved judgement on the nuclear issue, calling only for a resumption of talks between North and South Korea, China, Russia, Japan and the U.S.

'China hopes that the relevant parties will do more to contribute to peace and stability in the region,' a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Hong Lei, told reporters.

'It is imperative now to resume the six-party talks.'

There was a suggestion of partiality, however, when the evening news broadcast on China's main state-controlled television channel gave greater prominence to North Korea's official version of events on the shelling, which blamed South Korea for firing at it first.

Shortly afterward, Xinhua announced that a delegation led by Chinese Deputy Commerce Minister Wang Hemin had signed the new economic and trade pact in Pyongyang at the sixth meeting of the DPRK-China Intergovernmental Committee for Cooperation in Economy, Trade, Science and Technology.

The Xinhua report gave no details of the pact, and didn't mention the day's violence.

Mr. Bosworth's mission in Beijing, following talks in Seoul and Tokyo over the last two days, is to persuade China to use its clout to curb North Korea's increasingly provocative behavior.

China's political influence in the North derives mainly from the Korean War, when it sent hundreds of thousands of 'volunteers' to fight U.S.-led United Nations forces. Today, it provides much of the North's food and electricity, and is its main trading partner and military backer.

Emerging from a meeting with Yang Jiechi, China's Foreign Minister, Mr. Bosworth said he had held 'useful' talks and the two sides had agreed that a multilateral approach was needed.

However, China is unlikely to comply with any request of greater pressure on the North, according to Yang Xiyu, a former Chinese diplomat who represented China in the six-party talks in 2004-2005.

'The U.S. hopes China will put more pressure, like sanctions, on North Korea. But from China's point of view the best way to persuade North Korea is not through sanctions, but dialogue,' he said. 'The main obstacle is not the question of whether pressure is enough, but how to reduce the strategic mutual distrust between the North and South, and between North Korea and the U.S.'

Mr Yang, now a senior fellow at the state-run China Institute of International Studies, said North Korea's recent actions had 'complicated' China's efforts to restart the six-party talks.

'But that only reveals the need for patience,' he added.

China has long tried to maintain the appearance of impartiality as host of the six-party talks, which it sees as a way enhance its reputation as a responsible member of the international community.

But those efforts are now being undermined by its openly cozy relations with a North Korean government that is pushing the limits of tolerance in the South, according to many foreign diplomats and analysts. They cited China's refusal to accept the results of an international investigation which blamed North Korea for the sinking of the Cheonan, a South Korean ship, in March, with the loss of 46 lives.

This time, however, China may struggle to prevent the U.N. Security Council from censuring North Korea, as the artillery raid occurred in broad daylight, and was shown live on television.

'This is moving a lot faster than the Cheonan incident, so I would expect this goes quickly to the U.N. so China doesn't have the time to use the usual delay and water-down techniques,' said John Delury, assistant professor at Yonsei University's Graduate School of International Studies. 'Chinese diplomats are going to be looking for ways to finesse this back to negotiation in the days to come, and that's going to be hard,' he said.

An ailing Kim Jong Il, North Korea's leader, made a surprise visit to China in August -- his second this year -- to meet President Hu Jintao, who took the rare step of travelling to northeastern China, near the North Korean border, for the meeting. It was a piece of diplomatic theater that underlined the fraternal relationship between the neighbors that was forged in war and is sustained by close links between the ruling parties.

There were rumors -- never confirmed -- that Mr Kim was accompanied in China by his third and youngest son, Kim Jong Eun, who was anointed as North Korea's next leader in September.

China's primary concern isn't to prevent North Korea from developing a nuclear weapon, but to ensure that the regime there doesn't suddenly collapse, sending a flood of refugees over the border into northeastern China.

There is also a common view among Chinese experts that a strong, unified Korea represents a threat to China as it would bring to its border a key U.S. ally, and the People's Liberation Army would end up face-to-face with thousands of U.S. troops stationed in the South.

'China can't be seen as an honest broker in this process,' said Nicholas Eberstadt, an expert on North Korea at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. 'The six-party talks have been transmogrified from a forum for the denuclearization of North Korea into a roundtable for ratifying its nuclear status.'

Jeremy Page
 

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