这
个月股市已经够刺激的了，而大宗商品市场更为惊险。原材料价格波动之剧烈，已经达到一年多以来的最高水平。投资者最开始为美国放宽货币政策的前景而欢呼，然后又因为中国可能将采取过于严厉的经济降温措施而陷入恐慌。
Associated Press
芝加哥期货交易所内的交易员
自10月初以来，道琼斯瑞银大宗商品指数(Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index)的30日已实现波动率已经翻倍至25%，达到2009年9月份以来的最高水平。
虽然股市在过去几个交易日出现超过100点的波动，但相对来说还是比较温和的。大宗商品市场的波动则显得尤其惊人。标准普尔500种股票指数(Standard & Poor's 500-stock index)的30日已实现波动率目前接近六个月以来最低。
对于大宗商品来说，这种波动性的最主要原因，是中国加紧收紧信贷、控制通胀的新迹象引起了过大反应。但涌入大宗商品市场的巨量资金似乎也在帮助加剧价格的波动。
和这些资金一起进来的，还有一批新的投资者。他们更加注重买进然后抛出大宗商品，利用价格的波动谋利，而不是像一般生产者和消费者那样利用这个市场来管理风险。
自8月份以来，对冲基金等投资管理机构加大押注石油、金属铜、大豆和其他很多市场上扬。据商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission)数据，这些基金的净多头头寸总量全部都在截至11月9月的那一周见顶，然后在过去一周减少。
这一切说明，短期内市场的波动性哪怕不会增加，至少也不会减少，即便很多人认为整个大宗商品市场还有很大的进一步上行空间。
花旗集团(Citigroup)旗下大宗商品研究机构Citi Futures Perspective的大宗商品分析师埃文斯(Tim Evans)说，这么大的投机性敞口建立起来后，风险肯定是有的；当你已经用尽了所有潜力，无法再吸引更多的新资金入市，这个时候就很容易遭遇形势的逆转。
反转或许已经开始。
自11月9日以来，由于中国反通胀措施引发抛售浪潮，道琼斯瑞银大宗商品指数已经下跌7%。
在各种出现回调的大宗商品当中，直接受中国需求影响的品种承压最重。金属锌下跌16%，棉花跌15%，原油下跌了7%。
Bache Commodities资深大宗商品策略师史密斯(Andy Smith)说，随着年底越来越近，投资者也越来越紧张，不知道是应该在年内套现，还是继续赌下去。
全世界大宗商品消费者每时每刻都在判断，现在是否应该出手，还是应等待更好的价格机会。
很多投资者不仅在权衡基本供需数据，还在关注中美两国货币政策等宏观影响因素。
关于中国经济大概以多快速度扩张以及其它新兴市场的经济增速是否会大幅减缓的争论是造成目前某些大宗商品价格波动的原因。
摩根大通公司(J.P. Morgan Chase)全球商品研究和策略主管芬顿(Colin P. Fenton)说，眼下的价格波动基本上是对于需求上升步伐不确定性的一个反映。
中国消费者价格指数(CPI)10月同比上涨4.4%，创25个月以来的新高，中国政府因此出台了一系列反通胀措施，包括上调银行存款准备金率和讨论可能进行价格管控。
中国已成为众多大宗商品需求增长的主要来源。
国际能源署(International Energy Agency)数据显示，中国今年其石油消费预计每天增加82万桶，占到全球石油消费增加总量的35%。
中国在其它大宗商品市场上也有着较大的影响力，其在棉花、铜和大豆三种大宗商品今年全球消费上升总量中分别占到70%、57%和46%。
法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)商品市场战略主管吉瑞安(Harry Tchilinguirian)说，如果你认为中国在这些政策影响下经济增速将减慢，那按照这个逻辑，下一步你得出的推论就应该是，既然中国在释放需求增量方面显得如此重要，那么中国对大宗商品的需求也将趋于缓和。
有人预计，中国出台的措施只会暂时抑制原材料价格上涨，而不会影响其整个国家对大宗商品的实际需求。即便中国经济增速稍稍放缓，对于大宗商品市场来说，中国需求也是一股巨大的力量。
从事商品研究的对冲基金公司Ospraie Management LLC执行合伙人安德森(Dwight Anderson)说，中国目前采取的措施只会对大宗商品市场产生微不足道的影响。
芬顿说，市场很快就会得出结论，即全球经济复苏没有受到影响并将持续增长，特别是在新兴市场的大宗商品进口领域。
其他分析师甚至从中国给本国经济降温一事中看到积极一面。
中国正在采取防范措施，抑制通货膨胀。1994年，中国的通胀率升至27.7%，当时央行并未出台加息措施，而是等一年后其经济增长势头消失之后才采取相应行动。
美国银行/美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)全球大宗商品研究部负责人布兰奇(Francisco Blanch)说，如果我们担心物价上涨，很可能我们是在为迎接刺激经济更有力、更健康的增长而做准备。
Carolyn Cui
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
http://www.cn.wsj.com/gb/20101122/ecb114046.asp?source=whatnews
Price swings for raw materials reached the highest levels in more than a year as investors initially celebrated the prospect of U.S. monetary easing and then panicked at the possibility China would be too severe in its attempts to cool its economy.
Prices of everything from gold to copper and cotton leapt to new highs, only to be slapped down just as quickly. Trading volume in many commodities roared to records, including for silver, cotton and corn.
Since the beginning of October, the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index's 30-day realized volatility has doubled to 25%, the highest since September 2009.
The moves were particularly striking because stock-market volatility has been relatively benign, even with triple-digit moves in the past few sessions. The same measure of 30-day volatility in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is near six-month lows.
For commodities, the overarching reason for the volatility is the outsize reaction to new signs that China has stepped up its moves to tighten credit and contain inflation. But the huge amount of money flooding into commodities markets appears to be helping exaggerate those moves.
With that money has come a new breed of investors more focused on trading in and out of commodities to profit from price moves rather than the standard producers and consumers relying on the market to manage their risks.
Since August, money managers, such as hedge funds, have raised their bullish bets on oil, copper, soybeans and many other markets. These funds' total net-long positions all peaked in the week ended Nov. 9, before being cut in the past week, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
All this suggests volatility will at least be around, if not increase, in the short term, even if many people believe commodities overall have a lot further to rally.
'When you have this large [speculative] exposure built up, you do run a risk,' said Tim Evans, a commodity analyst at Citi Futures Perspective, a commodity-research arm of Citigroup. Because 'you've used up your potential to draw in more new money -- that's the time when you are vulnerable to a reversal.'
That may have started.
Since Nov. 9, the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index has declined 7%, amid waves of selling triggered by China's moves to tackle inflation.
Of all the commodities that were whipped around, those directly affected by demand from China suffered most. Zinc sank 16%, cotton shed 15%, and crude oil fell 7%.
Investors 'are getting more and more nervous as we get close to year end,' said Andy Smith, senior commodity strategist at Bache Commodities. They are 'not sure whether they should take the money off the table and run for the year or stay in the game.'
Commodity consumers around the world are making real-time assessments about whether they should jump in and buy now or wait for better prices.
Many are balancing not just fundamental supply-and-demand data but also macro forces such as monetary policy in China and the U.S.
The debate over how fast China's economy may expand and whether other emerging markets will step down hard on their economies also is driving some of the price swings.
The current volatility is a 'fundamental manifestation of uncertainty about the pace of rising demand,' said Colin P. Fenton, head of global commodities research and strategy at J.P. Morgan Chase.
Consumer prices in China rose 4.4% in October from a year earlier, a 25-month high, setting off a slew of anti-inflation moves, including an increase in bank reserve requirements and talk of possible price controls.
China has been the main source of demand growth for many commodities.
This year, the country's oil consumption is expected to increase 820,000 barrels a day, or 35% of the world's total oil consumption growth, according to the International Energy Agency.
The country has an even bigger influence in other markets, accounting for 70%, 57% and 46% of this year's global consumption rise for cotton, copper and soybeans, respectively.
'If you think China will grow less as a result of these policies, the next logical conclusion will be commodity demand from that country will also moderate given its importance' in terms of generating demand growth, said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas.
Some expect China's measures will only temporarily damp price increases for raw materials and won't hurt the nation's real appetite for commodities. Even if China's economy expands at a slightly slower rate, it will be a huge force in the commodities market.
'The steps that they're taking so far will have only a marginal impact,' said Dwight Anderson, managing partner at Ospraie Management LLC, a hedge fund specializing in commodities.
Soon, the markets will come to 'conclude that the global economic recovery is intact and there will be sustained growth, especially in the emerging markets, for commodity imports,' Mr. Fenton said.
Other analysts even see a silver lining to China's cooling moves.
China is taking pre-emptive measures to tackle inflation. In 1994, when inflation ran up to 27.7%, the country's central bank didn't increase interest rates but waited until a year later when the economy lost steam.
'If we are concerned about rising prices, we are probably setting ourselves up for a stronger and healthier way of growth,' said Francisco Blanch, head of Global Commodity Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Carolyn Cui
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