巴
菲特（Warren Buffett）1,000亿美元投资组合有了新继承人，但他得到这份工作的方式却十分老套：应聘。周二，华尔街对巴菲特选择库姆斯（Todd Combs）作为接班人的决定仍兴奋不已，这位不知名的39岁对冲基金经理是传奇投资大师巴菲特去世或退休后接管巴菲特投资组合的第一竞争人选。
2007年初，巴菲特意外地发布了一封“虚位以待”的招聘启示，库姆斯就是数百位应聘者之一。但第一次的申请并未使他脱颍而出。
尽管如此，他并未退却。他有三个孩子，住在康涅狄格州达里恩。这位低调的父亲最近又给伯克希尔（Berkshire）副董事长芒格（Charles Munger）写了一封信请求见面。芒格在采访中说，他每年都会收到“几百封”这样的邮件，但“他的信里有某些东西引起了我的兴趣”。
芒格回忆到，不久，芒格和库姆斯就在洛杉矶市区的California Club一起吃午饭，并一直延续到下午。之后，芒格打电话告诉巴菲特说，我觉得你一定会喜欢这家伙的。
巴菲特说他和芒格赏识库姆斯不光是因为他的能力和智慧，另一个原因是他们确信他会融入伯克希尔严谨克制的公司文化。
库姆斯生于佛罗里达州的萨拉索塔（Sarasota），现在仍然十分热爱其母校佛罗里达州立大学（Florida State University）塞米诺尔足球队（Seminoles）。巴菲特说，库姆斯留下了不可磨灭的印象。他和芒格对库姆斯进行了类似兼并公司所做的“全面检查”才做出了这个决定。
巴菲特说，他是符合公司文化的100%完美人选，我在的时候可以界定公司文化，但我们需要一种根深蒂固的文化，当创始人不在的时候也能够接受考验，库姆斯在这方面是完美人选。
库姆斯成为美国商界最受瞩目的也是压力最大的职位接班人，这一过程打破了一般的以权力和背景为重的升职轨迹。
他结婚时妻子April的伴娘卢坎特（Sheryl Lucante）说，他很聪明，适应力很强，他刚涉足这个行业时谁都不认识。
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巴菲特
接着他加入了汽车保险公司Progressive Corp.，负责分析风险和制定汽车保险的费率。在那里，他遇见了戴维斯（Chuck Davis），这位公司董事后来帮助他创立了自己的对冲基金。
与库姆斯曾经共事的人都说他对金融界的运作很好奇，对金融、商业和监管有着深刻的理解。他自己做研究，并花费大量时间阅读报纸和晦涩的金融文件，例如保险公司的依法申报文件和资产池担保证券的说明书。
2000年，库姆斯进入哥伦比亚大学商学院（Columbia Business School）学习，在第二学年与其他39位学生一起被选拔参加“价值投资项目”（Value Investing Program），那时候这一项目刚刚开始。库姆斯从专业基金经理和格林沃尔德（Bruce Greenwald）等知名金融教授那里学到了确认和分析冷门股票的技巧。
纽约Hambletonian Partners LP对冲基金公司经理汉雷（Richard Hanley）2002年在哥伦比亚商学院担任兼职教授时，开设了一门名为“应用价值投资”（Applied Value Investing）的课程。汉雷说，你在讲课的时候会看到有些学生是在混时间，但还有些人是真心地想要赚钱，库姆斯就是这样的人。
汉雷回忆道，在一群急于想冲到第一的极其努力的MBA学生中，库姆斯是最认真努力的。如巴菲特是其导师格林厄姆（Benjamin Graham）最优秀的学生那样，库姆斯是不是汉雷教过的最好学生呢？汉雷说，我不记得对自己说过“这家伙会成为下一个巴菲特”，但他可能是最有求胜欲望的学生。
库姆斯2002年完成商学院学业之后，很快就找到了工作。曾任摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)董事总经理和对冲基金经理、目前正在竞选国会席位的西普雷尔(Scott Sipprelle)，当时聘请他分析自己公司Copper Arch Capital LLC.持有的金融股。库姆斯从此进入对冲基金的世界。西普雷尔说，库姆斯咖啡喝得很多，他当时加班加点地工作，制作了大量数据翔实的表格，以评估金融服务公司遭遇负面事件的可能性。
Copper Arch公司管理的资产最多时大约曾有10亿美元。它追随了巴菲特的投资风格，即着眼于长线投资，持有的股份相当集中，并尽可能详尽地了解自己的核心投资。从未当面见过巴菲特的西普雷尔说，我们把巴菲特称为公司的精神导师，常常谈起他这个人，阅读他每年写给股东的信并展开讨论，还认真地分析他的投资组合。
2005年，一个新的机会到来，于是库姆斯离开了Copper Arch。此前的几年，总部位于康涅狄格州格林威治的Stone Point Capital一直在谋求成立一只基金，运用它一般只购买非上市公司股权的核心部门的投资原则，投资于上市公司的股票。
身为Stone Point首席执行长的戴维斯说，在面试几十位应聘者之后，他把注意力集中在了库姆斯身上。从库姆斯离开Progressive公司起，戴维斯就一直在了解他的动向。戴维斯说，经过九个月的反复斟酌，我们决定要支持他。Stone Point的公司提供3,500万美元启动资金和一些营业资源，帮助库姆斯成立了他自己的基金Castle Point Management LLC。
投资公司Stonehorse Capital管理人之一佩里(Jared Perry)作为投资人加入了库姆斯的基金。他说，库姆斯对投资组合里股票部分的热情好像比多数基金经理更高。
库姆斯在办公室外会见客户时很少说无关紧要的话。说到和市场有关的话题时，他立马兴奋起来，然后开始谈论自己最大的那些投资仓位。佩里说，很难找到某个跟他一样充满热情和思考的人。
整个2006年和2007年的很长一段时间，随着信贷市场泡沫越吹越大，库姆斯发现问题的能力开始变得明显起来。他在佛罗里达州不断趋冷的房地产市场看到了建筑贷款存在的问题，然后追溯其源头，一直追踪到中西部地区(Midwest)那些正在粉饰自己前景的银行。
库姆斯通过做空部分金融公司的股票，在市场崩盘时实现了盈利。到2006年年初，库姆斯已经在看空抵押贷款机构房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)。两年过后，这两家公司就将陷入大麻烦，并接受政府的救助。
库姆斯做空金融股帮助他熬过了金融危机和市场崩盘，但也不是毫发无伤。库姆斯2008年承受了略超5%的亏损，不过这个回报率还是远远超过了整个市场的水平。客户说，2008年9月份市场崩盘、他的基金当月缩水9%时，库姆斯感到失望，但是保持了相当的冷静，不愿意抛售他信得过的股票。
库姆斯的对冲基金在去年实现反弹，增值幅度略超6%，低于整个市场的增长。据一位投资者说，今年到目前为止，库姆斯的基金已缩水大约4%，这个表现低于标准普尔500种股票指数(Standard & Poor's 500)6%的涨幅。
其他成为库姆斯粉丝的人说，和很多对冲基金经理不一样，库姆斯很少花时间跟业界其他人分享投资观点，他宁愿自己琢磨。但一些人在了解库姆斯的操作后对他就不那么佩服了，这也是库姆斯的基金规模尚未突破4亿美元的部分原因。
一位投资者拿到的文件显示，库姆斯基金当前的投资者包括保险公司Axis Capital，为沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)创始人沃尔顿(Sam Walton)诸子做投资的Walton Investment Partnership，还有纽约一家“知名博物馆”。
客户说，库姆斯在留意下行风险方面做得更好，而在发现具有巨大增值潜力的资产方面做得差一些。
库姆斯的基金主要投资于银行、经纪公司和保险公司，据一位投资者说，从2005年11月成立以来，这只基金的累计回报率为34%。
Serena Ng / Susan Pulliam / Gregory Zuckerman
（更新完成）
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
The new heir apparent to Warren Buffett's $100 billion investment portfolio came to the job the old-fashioned way: He applied for it.
Wall Street was still agog Tuesday about Mr. Buffett's selection of Todd Combs, an unknown 39-year-old fund manager who is the leading contender to take over Mr. Buffett's portfolio when the investing legend dies or retires.
Mr. Combs was one of hundreds of people who responded to an unconventional 'help wanted' request Mr. Buffett made in early 2007. But his initial inquiry didn't distinguish itself.
Undaunted, the low-key father of three, who lives in Darien, Conn., recently sent another letter to Berkshire Vice Chairman Charles Munger asking for a meeting. Mr. Munger said in an interview that he gets 'hundreds' of such requests each year, but 'something in his request piqued my interest.'
The two soon met for a lunch that extended well into the afternoon at the California Club in downtown Los Angeles. Mr. Munger later phoned Mr. Buffett and told him, 'this is a guy I am sure you are going to like,' Mr. Munger recalls.
Mr. Buffett says he and Mr. Munger were sold on Mr. Combs not only because of his ability and intelligence but also because they were convinced he would fit in to Berkshire's no-fuss culture.
Mr. Combs, a Sarasota, Fla., native who is still partial to his alma mater Florida State Seminoles football team, struck a lasting impression, Mr. Buffett says. He and Mr. Munger arrived at the decision based on the same kind of 'gut check' they make with acquisitions of companies.
'He is a 100% fit for our culture,' Mr. Buffett says. 'I can define the culture while I am here, but we want a culture that is so embedded that it doesn't get tested when the founder of it isn't around. Todd is perfect in that respect.'
Mr. Combs's rise to one of the most visible, and high-pressure, posts in American business doesn't follow a typical path of privilege and pedigree.
'He is smart, and he can adapt,' says Sheryl Lucante, who was the maid of honor at his wedding to wife April. 'When he got into this business, he didn't know anybody.'
After graduating from Florida State in 1993, he worked as an analyst for a state financial regulator, a job that gave him insights into the inner workings of banks and fraud investigations.
He then joined auto insurer Progressive Corp., working in the department that analyzes risks and sets rates for auto-insurance policies. It was there he met Chuck Davis, a company director, who would later help him get his hedge fund started.
People who have worked with Mr. Combs say he is curious about the workings about the financial world, with a deep understanding of finance, business and regulation. He does his own research and spends a significant amount of time reading newspapers and arcane financial documents, such as insurers' statutory filings and prospectuses for securities backed by pools of assets.
In 2000, Mr. Comb enrolled in Columbia Business School, where in his second year he was one of 40 students picked for its Value Investing Program, which had just gotten off the ground. There, Mr. Combs learned techniques to identify and analyze out-of-favor stocks from professional money managers and renown finance professors including Bruce Greenwald.
Richard Hanley, manager of Hambletonian Partners LP, a hedge fund in New York, taught a course called 'Applied Value Investing' at Columbia Business School as an adjunct professor in 2002. 'When you teach, you see some people that just go through the motions,' Mr. Hanley says, 'and some people who genuinely want to make money. That's where Todd's head was.'
Mr. Combs, recalls Mr. Hanley, 'stood out in his level of intensity among a very intense group of MBAs all trying to get to the front of the line.' Was Mr. Combs far and away the best student Mr. Hanley ever taught, much as Mr. Buffett was the greatest student that Benjamin Graham ever had? 'I don't remember saying to myself, 'This guy is the next Warren Buffett,' ' says Mr. Hanley, 'but he probably had the greatest desire to win.'
After completing business school in 2002, Mr. Combs quickly found work. Scott Sipprelle, a former Morgan Stanley managing director and hedgefund manager who is now running for Congress, gave Mr. Combs his start in the hedge-fund world when he hired him to analyze financial stocks held by his firm, Copper Arch Capital LLC. He says Mr. Combs, a heavy coffee drinker, worked long hours and created voluminous spreadsheets packed with data used to assess the probability of negative events happening to financial-services firms.
Copper Arch, which had roughly $1 billion in assets at its peak, modeled itself after Mr. Buffett's style of investing, targeting a long-term investment horizon, holding a fairly concentrated portfolio of stocks, and trying to understand its core holding intimately. 'We called Warren Buffett the spiritual mentor of the firm; we talked about him constantly, read and debated his annual letters, and analyzed his portfolio religiously,' says Mr. Sipprelle, who has never met the billionaire investor in person.
Mr. Combs left Copper Arch in 2005 when a new opportunity came along. Greenwich, Conn.-based Stone Point Capital had for the last few years been looking to start a fund that would invest in the stocks of publicly traded companies using similar principles as its core operations, which generally only bought stakes in private companies.
Mr. Davis, Stone Point's chief executive, says he interviewed dozens of candidates before focusing on Mr. Combs, who he had kept track of following his days at Progressive. After 'nine months of intensive back and forth, we decided to back him,' say Mr. Davis, whose firm provided $35 million of seed money and operational resources to help Mr. Combs start his fund, Castle Point Management LLC.
Mr. Combs seemed more excited about shares in his portfolio than most managers, says Jared Perry, who helps run investment firm Stonehorse Capital, and who signed up as an investor in Mr. Combs's fund.
When Mr. Combs meets clients outside the office, there is little chitchat. He lights up when the subject of the market is broached and launches into a discussion of his biggest investment positions. 'It's tough to find someone that passionate and thoughtful,' said Mr. Perry.
In 2006 and much of 2007, as the bubble in credit markets grew, Mr. Combs's skills spotting problem areas started to become apparent. He found construction loans in Florida's slowing real-estate market and traced their origination to banks in the Midwest that were painting rosy pictures of their outlooks.
Mr. Combs profited by 'shorting' the stocks of some financial companies as markets crumbled. By early 2006, Mr. Combs had become downbeat about the prospects for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage lenders that two years later would run into deep trouble and be rescued by the government.
Mr. Combs's short positions on financial shares helped him manage through the financial crisis and the market's meltdown, though he didn't emerge unscathed. Mr. Combs suffered losses of a little more than 5% in 2008, though that return trounced the overall market's. As markets collapsed in September 2008, and his fund lost 9% during that month, clients say Mr. Combs was disappointed but quite calm, unwilling to sell shares he believed in.
Last year, his hedge fund rebounded, rising just over 6%, a figure below the overall market's gain. So far this year, Mr. Combs's fund has lost about 4%, according to an investor. That is worse than the 6% gain of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index.
Others who became fans of Mr. Combs say that, unlike many hedge-fund mangers, he spent little time sharing investment ideas with others in the business, preferring to develop his own ideas. But some were less impressed after examining Mr. Combs's operation, part of the reason his firm hasn't grown larger than $400 million.
Among his current investors: Insurance company Axis Capital and Walton Investment Partnership, which invests for sons of Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton, and a 'prominent New York museum,' according to documents provided to an investor.
Clients say Mr. Combs has done a better job watching out for downside risk than he has finding huge gainers.
Focusing on banks, brokerage firms and insurance companies, Mr. Combs's returns since launching his firm in November 2005 are a cumulative 34%, according to an investor.
Serena Ng / Susan Pulliam / Gregory Zuckerman
Wall Street was still agog Tuesday about Mr. Buffett's selection of Todd Combs, an unknown 39-year-old fund manager who is the leading contender to take over Mr. Buffett's portfolio when the investing legend dies or retires.
Mr. Combs was one of hundreds of people who responded to an unconventional 'help wanted' request Mr. Buffett made in early 2007. But his initial inquiry didn't distinguish itself.
Undaunted, the low-key father of three, who lives in Darien, Conn., recently sent another letter to Berkshire Vice Chairman Charles Munger asking for a meeting. Mr. Munger said in an interview that he gets 'hundreds' of such requests each year, but 'something in his request piqued my interest.'
The two soon met for a lunch that extended well into the afternoon at the California Club in downtown Los Angeles. Mr. Munger later phoned Mr. Buffett and told him, 'this is a guy I am sure you are going to like,' Mr. Munger recalls.
Mr. Buffett says he and Mr. Munger were sold on Mr. Combs not only because of his ability and intelligence but also because they were convinced he would fit in to Berkshire's no-fuss culture.
Mr. Combs, a Sarasota, Fla., native who is still partial to his alma mater Florida State Seminoles football team, struck a lasting impression, Mr. Buffett says. He and Mr. Munger arrived at the decision based on the same kind of 'gut check' they make with acquisitions of companies.
'He is a 100% fit for our culture,' Mr. Buffett says. 'I can define the culture while I am here, but we want a culture that is so embedded that it doesn't get tested when the founder of it isn't around. Todd is perfect in that respect.'
Mr. Combs's rise to one of the most visible, and high-pressure, posts in American business doesn't follow a typical path of privilege and pedigree.
'He is smart, and he can adapt,' says Sheryl Lucante, who was the maid of honor at his wedding to wife April. 'When he got into this business, he didn't know anybody.'
After graduating from Florida State in 1993, he worked as an analyst for a state financial regulator, a job that gave him insights into the inner workings of banks and fraud investigations.
He then joined auto insurer Progressive Corp., working in the department that analyzes risks and sets rates for auto-insurance policies. It was there he met Chuck Davis, a company director, who would later help him get his hedge fund started.
People who have worked with Mr. Combs say he is curious about the workings about the financial world, with a deep understanding of finance, business and regulation. He does his own research and spends a significant amount of time reading newspapers and arcane financial documents, such as insurers' statutory filings and prospectuses for securities backed by pools of assets.
In 2000, Mr. Comb enrolled in Columbia Business School, where in his second year he was one of 40 students picked for its Value Investing Program, which had just gotten off the ground. There, Mr. Combs learned techniques to identify and analyze out-of-favor stocks from professional money managers and renown finance professors including Bruce Greenwald.
Richard Hanley, manager of Hambletonian Partners LP, a hedge fund in New York, taught a course called 'Applied Value Investing' at Columbia Business School as an adjunct professor in 2002. 'When you teach, you see some people that just go through the motions,' Mr. Hanley says, 'and some people who genuinely want to make money. That's where Todd's head was.'
Mr. Combs, recalls Mr. Hanley, 'stood out in his level of intensity among a very intense group of MBAs all trying to get to the front of the line.' Was Mr. Combs far and away the best student Mr. Hanley ever taught, much as Mr. Buffett was the greatest student that Benjamin Graham ever had? 'I don't remember saying to myself, 'This guy is the next Warren Buffett,' ' says Mr. Hanley, 'but he probably had the greatest desire to win.'
After completing business school in 2002, Mr. Combs quickly found work. Scott Sipprelle, a former Morgan Stanley managing director and hedgefund manager who is now running for Congress, gave Mr. Combs his start in the hedge-fund world when he hired him to analyze financial stocks held by his firm, Copper Arch Capital LLC. He says Mr. Combs, a heavy coffee drinker, worked long hours and created voluminous spreadsheets packed with data used to assess the probability of negative events happening to financial-services firms.
Copper Arch, which had roughly $1 billion in assets at its peak, modeled itself after Mr. Buffett's style of investing, targeting a long-term investment horizon, holding a fairly concentrated portfolio of stocks, and trying to understand its core holding intimately. 'We called Warren Buffett the spiritual mentor of the firm; we talked about him constantly, read and debated his annual letters, and analyzed his portfolio religiously,' says Mr. Sipprelle, who has never met the billionaire investor in person.
Mr. Combs left Copper Arch in 2005 when a new opportunity came along. Greenwich, Conn.-based Stone Point Capital had for the last few years been looking to start a fund that would invest in the stocks of publicly traded companies using similar principles as its core operations, which generally only bought stakes in private companies.
Mr. Davis, Stone Point's chief executive, says he interviewed dozens of candidates before focusing on Mr. Combs, who he had kept track of following his days at Progressive. After 'nine months of intensive back and forth, we decided to back him,' say Mr. Davis, whose firm provided $35 million of seed money and operational resources to help Mr. Combs start his fund, Castle Point Management LLC.
Mr. Combs seemed more excited about shares in his portfolio than most managers, says Jared Perry, who helps run investment firm Stonehorse Capital, and who signed up as an investor in Mr. Combs's fund.
When Mr. Combs meets clients outside the office, there is little chitchat. He lights up when the subject of the market is broached and launches into a discussion of his biggest investment positions. 'It's tough to find someone that passionate and thoughtful,' said Mr. Perry.
In 2006 and much of 2007, as the bubble in credit markets grew, Mr. Combs's skills spotting problem areas started to become apparent. He found construction loans in Florida's slowing real-estate market and traced their origination to banks in the Midwest that were painting rosy pictures of their outlooks.
Mr. Combs profited by 'shorting' the stocks of some financial companies as markets crumbled. By early 2006, Mr. Combs had become downbeat about the prospects for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage lenders that two years later would run into deep trouble and be rescued by the government.
Mr. Combs's short positions on financial shares helped him manage through the financial crisis and the market's meltdown, though he didn't emerge unscathed. Mr. Combs suffered losses of a little more than 5% in 2008, though that return trounced the overall market's. As markets collapsed in September 2008, and his fund lost 9% during that month, clients say Mr. Combs was disappointed but quite calm, unwilling to sell shares he believed in.
Last year, his hedge fund rebounded, rising just over 6%, a figure below the overall market's gain. So far this year, Mr. Combs's fund has lost about 4%, according to an investor. That is worse than the 6% gain of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index.
Others who became fans of Mr. Combs say that, unlike many hedge-fund mangers, he spent little time sharing investment ideas with others in the business, preferring to develop his own ideas. But some were less impressed after examining Mr. Combs's operation, part of the reason his firm hasn't grown larger than $400 million.
Among his current investors: Insurance company Axis Capital and Walton Investment Partnership, which invests for sons of Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton, and a 'prominent New York museum,' according to documents provided to an investor.
Clients say Mr. Combs has done a better job watching out for downside risk than he has finding huge gainers.
Focusing on banks, brokerage firms and insurance companies, Mr. Combs's returns since launching his firm in November 2005 are a cumulative 34%, according to an investor.
Serena Ng / Susan Pulliam / Gregory Zuckerman
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