在
美联储（Fed）采取量化宽松政策后，看看地球的另一端的中国下一步将采取什么样的政策？根据美国银行-美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）策略师罗克斯（Tim Rocks）的看法，中国需要进一步紧缩货币政策，否则将面临更严峻的通胀问题。
换句话说，中国将采取与美联储相反的政策，但最快何时采取这样的政策则是重要又具有争议的问题。
罗克斯说，中国经济已全面复苏，工资增长强劲，这提振了消费，而且人民币汇率较低扶助了贸易，但输入了更多成本压力。罗克斯表示，这些良好的条件并没有预示着资产泡沫的破裂和高物价的崩盘，换句话说，形成高通胀。
他说，对更积极政策的需求变得越发明显。
中国一直在试图紧缩货币政策以打压通胀，但没有真正采取决定性措施。罗克斯将这归因于决策者担心经济出现二次探底的谨慎态度。但这也可能是置通胀于不顾，对促进经济增长的宽松政策的沉迷。
想想日本吧。在上世纪80年代经济高速增长时，日本维持极其宽松的货币政策。地产价格和股市升至极高水平，此后泡沫破灭了。
人们都认为中国不同，确实是这样。中国领土面积更大，而且情况更加复杂多样。但中国不愿抑制经济增长与日本出奇的相似。知名市场看空人士詹姆斯•查诺斯（James Chanos）曾说，中国行走在通向地狱的路上。与此同时，几乎每个人都对中国很热衷。就像罗克斯指出的那样，超过1,000名投资者出席了美国银行-美林的会议，而这正是火热的科技股曾经吸引的那样的一批人。
Dave Kansas
换句话说，中国将采取与美联储相反的政策，但最快何时采取这样的政策则是重要又具有争议的问题。
罗克斯说，中国经济已全面复苏，工资增长强劲，这提振了消费，而且人民币汇率较低扶助了贸易，但输入了更多成本压力。罗克斯表示，这些良好的条件并没有预示着资产泡沫的破裂和高物价的崩盘，换句话说，形成高通胀。
他说，对更积极政策的需求变得越发明显。
中国一直在试图紧缩货币政策以打压通胀，但没有真正采取决定性措施。罗克斯将这归因于决策者担心经济出现二次探底的谨慎态度。但这也可能是置通胀于不顾，对促进经济增长的宽松政策的沉迷。
想想日本吧。在上世纪80年代经济高速增长时，日本维持极其宽松的货币政策。地产价格和股市升至极高水平，此后泡沫破灭了。
人们都认为中国不同，确实是这样。中国领土面积更大，而且情况更加复杂多样。但中国不愿抑制经济增长与日本出奇的相似。知名市场看空人士詹姆斯•查诺斯（James Chanos）曾说，中国行走在通向地狱的路上。与此同时，几乎每个人都对中国很热衷。就像罗克斯指出的那样，超过1,000名投资者出席了美国银行-美林的会议，而这正是火热的科技股曾经吸引的那样的一批人。
Dave Kansas
After the Fed’s Kerosene toss, how about a look at the other side of the globe to see what China might do next in terms of policy. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Tim Rocks, the Chinese need to tighten up policy more or face steeper inflation problems.
In other words, China will move opposite the Fed. But just how quickly is an important, open question.
Mr. Rocks says the economy is “fully recovered,” wage growth is “strong,” boosting consumption and the weak yuan is helping trade but importing more cost pressures. “These healthy conditions are not threatening [an] asset and good price breakout.” In other words, inflation.
“It follows that the need for a more aggressive policy response is becoming clearer.”
China has flirted with trying to tighten up its monetary policy to tamp down inflation, but it has not really taken decisive action. Mr. Rocks attributes this to caution among policymakers who fear the double dip. But it could also be something of an addiction to easy growth policies, inflation be damned.
Consider Japan. As it roared through the 1980s it kept monetary policy arguably way to easy. Property values and the stock market soared to galactic levels and then the bubble burst.
Everyone says China is different and it is. It is bigger and more diverse. But the hesitancy to rein in growth is a curious similarity to its growth dynamo predecessor. Famous market bear James Chanos has said China is “on a treadmill to hell.” Meantime, just about everyone else can’t get enough of China. As Mr. Rocks notes, more than 1,000 investors are that Bofa/ML China Conference. That’s the kind of crowd that go-go technology stocks used to attract.
Dave Kansas
In other words, China will move opposite the Fed. But just how quickly is an important, open question.
Mr. Rocks says the economy is “fully recovered,” wage growth is “strong,” boosting consumption and the weak yuan is helping trade but importing more cost pressures. “These healthy conditions are not threatening [an] asset and good price breakout.” In other words, inflation.
“It follows that the need for a more aggressive policy response is becoming clearer.”
China has flirted with trying to tighten up its monetary policy to tamp down inflation, but it has not really taken decisive action. Mr. Rocks attributes this to caution among policymakers who fear the double dip. But it could also be something of an addiction to easy growth policies, inflation be damned.
Consider Japan. As it roared through the 1980s it kept monetary policy arguably way to easy. Property values and the stock market soared to galactic levels and then the bubble burst.
Everyone says China is different and it is. It is bigger and more diverse. But the hesitancy to rein in growth is a curious similarity to its growth dynamo predecessor. Famous market bear James Chanos has said China is “on a treadmill to hell.” Meantime, just about everyone else can’t get enough of China. As Mr. Rocks notes, more than 1,000 investors are that Bofa/ML China Conference. That’s the kind of crowd that go-go technology stocks used to attract.
Dave Kansas
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