主要受国内需求增长的驱动，中国制造业十月产出大幅增加，与亚洲其他地区的普遍减速形成鲜明对照。
由中国物流与采购联合会发布的采购经理人指数(PMI)由9月的53.8升至10月的54.7，表明尽管北京努力在为经济减速以避免资产泡沫，但增长依然强劲。
同样于周一发布的广受外界关注的汇丰中国制造业采购经理人指数从52.9上升至54.8。这是该数据自2004年4月首次发布以来，出现的最大的环比增幅之一。
采购经理人指数在50点以上表明经济扩张，反之则表明经济紧缩。最新数据表明，中国制造业在10月出现了连续第三个月的快速上涨。
汇丰银行(HSBC)表示，中国制造业企业扩展新业务的速度达到了6个月以来新高，相比之下，出口订单的增幅则相对较小，这表明增长主要来自国内市场。
汇丰银行首席中国经济学家屈宏斌表示，这些强劲数字说明，今年第四季度中国经济按年率计算将增长9%左右。
中国的数字与韩国、台湾及日本报告的PMI数字形成鲜明对比。上述地区的制造业在全球金融危机期间备受打压，在危机后曾经出现快速增长，眼下则持续放缓。
汇丰台湾PMI指数从9月份的49跌至48.6，连续3月下跌，表明经济正在萎缩。而汇丰韩国PMI指数则从48.8下跌至46.7，连续第两个月低于50。
上周五发布的野村(Nomura)日本制造业采购经理人指数从49.5跌至47.2，连续第二个月出现收缩。这表明日本经济正在放缓，而强势日元正伤及大部分日本制造商。
中国以外亚洲其他地区的工业活动放缓，暗示经济增长正在减速，尽管该地区在全球金融危机后曾出现过非常高的增长率。
2009年4月至今年6月间，该地区除日本之外国内生产总值(GDP)猛涨9%，主要得益于同期工业生产25%的增长率。这反映出国内消费的增长充分弥补了对西方发达经济体出口的下降。
表明亚洲整体经济增长可能正在放缓的首个明确信号来自新加坡。10月份新加坡公布的第三季度GDP初步数据显示，经季节调整后，该国经济环比收缩19.8%，收缩幅度远大于普遍预期。
相比较而言，该国经济第二季度的增幅为24%，第一季度为45.7%。富足的新加坡往往是亚洲的风向标。2008年金融危机到来时，新加坡是亚洲首个开始衰退的国家；一年后，它也是第一个恢复增长的国家。
投资银行瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的计算表明，除日本和中国外，亚洲的工业生产增长率明年1月最低将跌至3.5%的水平，而这一增长率的长期平均值为6.1%。
揭示生产放缓趋势的是逐渐下跌的PMI指数。这一指数跟踪一系列指标，比如商业信心、价格以及新增订单数量。新加坡和澳大利亚的一些领先指标显示10月份出现收缩，即使快速增长的印度也预期将会报告增速放缓。
尽管许多国家的制造业增速放缓，但预计没有国家会再度陷入萧条。亚洲开发银行(ADB)调高了对2010年除日本以外亚洲的GDP增长预期，从7.5%上调至8.2%，并预期2011年这一地区GDP增长将达到7.3%。
译者/麦可林
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035289
China’s manufacturers sharply increased output in October, powered largely by rising domestic demand and defying a widespread slowdown in the rest of Asia.
The official purchasing managers' index released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing rose to 54.7 from 53.8 in September, indicating strong growth in spite of Beijing’s efforts to slow the economy to avoid asset bubbles.
The widely watched HSBC China manufacturing PMI, also released on Monday, moved up to 54.8 from 52.9 in one of the biggest month-on-month rises since the series began in April 2004.
The PMI indices, in which a figure above 50 indicates expansion and a lower figure indicates contraction, showed that Chinese manufacturing surged in October for the third successive month.
HSBC said the rate of expansion in new business for Chinese manufacturing companies was at a six-month high, in spite of a relatively small increase in export orders, suggesting that growth was firmly centred on the domestic market.
Hongbin Qu, HSBC’s chief China economist, said the upbeat numbers suggested the economy would grow at an annualised rate of around 9 per cent in the fourth quarter of the year.
The Chinese numbers contrasted sharply with PMI reports for South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, all of which showed a continuing slowdown in the wake of very rapid growth after the sharp contraction caused by the global financial crisis.
The HSBC Taiwan index fell to 48.6 from 49 in September, the third successive monthly number suggesting a contraction. The bank’s index for South Korea fell to 46.7 from 48.8, the second successive monthly number below 50.
The Nomura Japan manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, which was released on Friday, fell to 47.2 from 49.5, the second monthly contraction in a row, indicating that slowing economic conditions and the strong yen are hurting most Japanese manufacturers.
The industrial slowdown in Asia outside China suggests that economic growth is decelerating from the very high rates of expansion achieved after the global crisis.
Gross domestic product for the region excluding Japan soared by 9 per cent between April 2009 and June this year, largely on the back of a 25 per cent rise in industrial production over the same period. That reflected an increase in domestic consumption that more than compensated for a fall in exports to the western advanced economies.
The first clear sign that Asia’s overall economic growth may be slowing came in Singapore in October, where preliminary GDP figures for the third quarter showed a contraction of 19.8 per cent, quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted, which was much bigger than consensus forecasts.
That compared with growth of 24 per cent on the same basis in the second quarter, and 45.7 per cent in the first. Wealthy Singapore is often a bellwether for Asia. It was the first Asian country to move into recession when the crisis hit home in 2008, and the first to start growing again a year ago.
Calculations by Credit Suisse, the investment bank, suggest that industrial production growth in Asia excluding Japan and China may fall as low as 3.5 per cent by January, compared with a long-term average of 6.1 per cent.
Underlying the production slowdown is a steady decline in PMI indices, which track a range of indicators such as business confidence, prices and new orders. Leading indicators from Singapore and Australia indicate a contraction in October, with even fast-growing India expected to report a deceleration.
In spite of the manufacturing slowdown in many countries, no one is predicting a return to recession. The Asian Development Bank has upgraded its 2010 GDP growth forecast for Asia excluding Japan to 8.2 per cent from 7.5 per cent, with growth of 7.3 per cent in 2011.
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