2010年11月1日

全球复苏希望增强 Output boost lifts recovery hopes

 

全球三大经济体相继公布:10月份制造业活动增强,订单状况改善,这推动了各地股市上扬,因为投资者看到了希望:全球经济复苏正植根于坚实的基础之上。

美国、中国和英国的制造业前景好转,让此前预期制造业产出指标应会放缓的经济学家们感到困惑。

这些表明第四季度开局良好的初步指标,可能不足以阻止美联储(Fed)在周三启动第二轮量化宽松货币政策,为进一步促进美国经济增长,向经济中再次注入大量资金。

对美联储注资的预期,加之全球经济增长强劲,使增强了投资者的风险偏好,推高了各地股市。

周一伦敦股市收盘时,富时环球股票指数上涨0.4%。

在各大经济体中,中国最早公布了好消息:两项采购经理指数(PMI)的升幅均远高于预期水平。

印度制造业PMI指数也表现强劲,抵消了韩国等许多国家数据逊于预期的影响。

在欧洲,英国也发布了强劲的PMI数据:从53.5升至54.9,表明今年内经济增长不太可能进一步放缓。

数据编制机构Markit的经济学家罗布•道布森(Rob Dobson)表示,上述数据“会使人放心,进入最后一个季度后,制造业依将是英国经济增长的一个动力”。

欧元区上月发布的“闪’(Flash)数据也显示制造业活动有所改善,尤其是在德国。

在美国,由供应管理学会(ISM)发布的同类数据也显示,制造业增长加速,10月份PMI从9月的54.4升至56.9。

投资者目前估计,美联储在周三会议结束后将重启量化宽松货币政策,宣布未来半年内计划“创造”5000亿美元左右的资金,用以买进国债之类的资产。

译者/杨远

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035299

 

 

Manufacturers in three of the world’s largest economies reported stronger activity and healthier order books in October, sending stock markets higher on hopes that the global recovery is based on firm foundations.

Economists, who had been expecting indicators of manufacturing output to slow, were confounded by an improving outlook in the US, China and the UK.

These initial indicators of a positive start to the fourth quarter are unlikely to be sufficient to prevent the Federal Reserve from pumping money into the economy on Wednesday, in a second round of quantitative easing aimed at boosting the US growth rate further.

Anticipating a wave of Fed money alongside a strongly growing world economy, investors increased their demand for risk on Monday, pushing equities higher.

The FTSE All-World equities index closed 0.4 per cent higher in London.

Among big economies, the positive news started when both of China’s purchasing managers’ indices rose much more sharply than expected.

Indian manufacturing PMI data were also strong and offset weaker-than-expected figures in countries such as South Korea.

In Europe, the UK also published strong PMI figures. It reported a rise from 53.5 to 54.9, suggesting that growth was unlikely to slow further this year.

The figures “will provide reassurance that manufacturing remained a driver of UK economic growth at the start of the final quarter”, said Rob Dobson, economist at Markit, which produces the data.

‘Flash’ indicators from the eurozone last month also showed an improvement in business activity among manufacturers, especially in Germany.

In the US, the equivalent series, published by the Institute for Supply Management, also showed the manufacturing sector growing faster, as the PMI rose from 54.4 in September to 56.9 in October.

Investors are expecting the Fed to restart quantitative easing after its meeting on Wednesday by signalling plans to create about $500bn over the next six months to purchase assets, such as government bonds.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035299/en

没有评论: