美
国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)靠印钞票在今后八个月购买的美国国债，其规模几乎相当于美国政府在此期间的国债发行额。
美联储本周做出的将再购买6,000亿美元美国国债的决定引发了一场争论，争论焦点是一家将自身政策与政府的财政命运如此紧密联系在一起的中央银行所承担的风险。事实上，未来几个月美国政府靠美联储借给它的钱就足以维持运作，这种现象被称为“债务货币化”。
在正常情况下，这是中央银行在开展工作时的最大忌讳之一，因为它被看成是向螺旋式通胀迈出的一步，还因为它可能会鼓励政府轻率地支出。
美联储押注的是如今的情况不能算是常态。金融市场周四对美联储的举措作出了热情回应，而对此政策公开持有批评态度的人则发出了严厉指责。
巴西财政部长奥特加(Guido Mantega)在与巴西总统卢拉(Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva)举行内阁会议后对记者说，很难说美联储的决策将会起到任何作用。巴西官员对美联储的宽松货币政策感到不满，因为这一政策会在海外引发价格上涨压力，并且在美国之外产生新的资产泡沫。上世纪九十年代，巴西的年通胀率平均达到850%。
奥特加说，从直升机上往下扔钱没有任何作用。
堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长霍恩(Thomas Hoenig)是周三唯一投票反对国债购买计划的美联储决策人士。霍恩周四在接受采访时说，他担心美联储将来无法以足够快的速度紧缩货币，从而导致新的问题。
霍恩说，实行这种政策的时间要是超过了我们事后认为适宜的长度，这将会引发一系列新问题，不管这些问题是什么。
美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)及其同盟宣称，鉴于目前经济的疲软程度以及银行的惜贷程度，这种政策不会产生太大的通胀压力。他们还承诺美联储只会在通胀水平徘徊于美联储未言明的2%这一目标之下时购买债券。他们说，购买债券只是暂时性举措。当经济恢复正常或是当通胀水平上升时，美联储打算停止购买，并有可能向市场抛售债券。
从现在到明年6月，美联储每个月将购买1,100亿美元的美国长期和中期国债，其中750亿美元为美联储新计划下的购买额，另外350亿美元将用美联储所购按揭贷款支持债券到期兑付后获得的资金购买。Wrightson ICAP LLC的分析师克兰戴尔(Louis Crandall)估计，在此期间财政部每个月将发行的新债大约为1,140亿美元。
各家中央银行通常会通过买卖国债来影响短期利率，但很少会通过如此大规模的债券购买来影响长期利率。
市场似乎对此并不担心。尽管大宗商品和黄金价格出现了上涨──原油价格在仅仅四天内上涨了6%──但从债券市场的表现看，投资者似乎并不怎么担心通货膨胀。
两年期国债的收益率跌至0.33%，为五十多年来的最低水平。据巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)的庞德(Michael Pond)计算，通胀保值国债市场的行情显示，投资者预计今后五年的年通货膨胀率仅为1.5%。这较8月份时的1.15%有所上升，但依然相对较低。
如果投资者预计通胀风险将会很高，国债收益率就会上升。
哈佛大学的经济学家鲁戈夫(Kenneth Rogoff)说，当前，人们显然不相信通胀水平将会上升，因为要是他们相信的话，政府支付的利率就会大大提高......美国十年期国债的利率就不会是2.5%了。
Jon Hilsenrath
美联储本周做出的将再购买6,000亿美元美国国债的决定引发了一场争论，争论焦点是一家将自身政策与政府的财政命运如此紧密联系在一起的中央银行所承担的风险。事实上，未来几个月美国政府靠美联储借给它的钱就足以维持运作，这种现象被称为“债务货币化”。
在正常情况下，这是中央银行在开展工作时的最大忌讳之一，因为它被看成是向螺旋式通胀迈出的一步，还因为它可能会鼓励政府轻率地支出。
美联储押注的是如今的情况不能算是常态。金融市场周四对美联储的举措作出了热情回应，而对此政策公开持有批评态度的人则发出了严厉指责。
巴西财政部长奥特加(Guido Mantega)在与巴西总统卢拉(Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva)举行内阁会议后对记者说，很难说美联储的决策将会起到任何作用。巴西官员对美联储的宽松货币政策感到不满，因为这一政策会在海外引发价格上涨压力，并且在美国之外产生新的资产泡沫。上世纪九十年代，巴西的年通胀率平均达到850%。
奥特加说，从直升机上往下扔钱没有任何作用。
堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长霍恩(Thomas Hoenig)是周三唯一投票反对国债购买计划的美联储决策人士。霍恩周四在接受采访时说，他担心美联储将来无法以足够快的速度紧缩货币，从而导致新的问题。
霍恩说，实行这种政策的时间要是超过了我们事后认为适宜的长度，这将会引发一系列新问题，不管这些问题是什么。
美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)及其同盟宣称，鉴于目前经济的疲软程度以及银行的惜贷程度，这种政策不会产生太大的通胀压力。他们还承诺美联储只会在通胀水平徘徊于美联储未言明的2%这一目标之下时购买债券。他们说，购买债券只是暂时性举措。当经济恢复正常或是当通胀水平上升时，美联储打算停止购买，并有可能向市场抛售债券。
从现在到明年6月，美联储每个月将购买1,100亿美元的美国长期和中期国债，其中750亿美元为美联储新计划下的购买额，另外350亿美元将用美联储所购按揭贷款支持债券到期兑付后获得的资金购买。Wrightson ICAP LLC的分析师克兰戴尔(Louis Crandall)估计，在此期间财政部每个月将发行的新债大约为1,140亿美元。
各家中央银行通常会通过买卖国债来影响短期利率，但很少会通过如此大规模的债券购买来影响长期利率。
市场似乎对此并不担心。尽管大宗商品和黄金价格出现了上涨──原油价格在仅仅四天内上涨了6%──但从债券市场的表现看，投资者似乎并不怎么担心通货膨胀。
两年期国债的收益率跌至0.33%，为五十多年来的最低水平。据巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)的庞德(Michael Pond)计算，通胀保值国债市场的行情显示，投资者预计今后五年的年通货膨胀率仅为1.5%。这较8月份时的1.15%有所上升，但依然相对较低。
如果投资者预计通胀风险将会很高，国债收益率就会上升。
哈佛大学的经济学家鲁戈夫(Kenneth Rogoff)说，当前，人们显然不相信通胀水平将会上升，因为要是他们相信的话，政府支付的利率就会大大提高......美国十年期国债的利率就不会是2.5%了。
Jon Hilsenrath
The Federal Reserve will print money to buy nearly as much U.S. Treasury debt in the next eight months as the U.S. government will issue.
The Fed's decision this week to buy $600 billion more of U.S. Treasury debt is setting off a debate about the risks of a central bank entwining its policies so tightly with the government's fiscal fortunes. The Fed is essentially lending enough money to the government to fund its operations for several months, something called 'monetizing the debt.'
In normal times, this is one of the great taboos of central banking because it is seen as a step toward spiraling inflation and because it risks encouraging reckless government spending.
The central bank is betting these aren't normal times. Financial markets Thursday responded warmly to the Fed move, but outspoken critics of the policy issued full-throated critiques.
'It is doubtful the Fed decision will produce any results,' Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega told reporters following a cabinet meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Officials in Brazil, which averaged 850% annual inflation in the 1990s, have been critical of the Fed's easy-money policies because they are spurring price pressures abroad and could encourage new asset bubbles outside the U.S.
'Throwing money out of a helicopter doesn't do any good,' Mr. Mantega said.
Thomas Hoenig, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve and the lone dissenter in Wednesday's decision, said in an interview Thursday that he worried the Fed would be too slow to reverse the policy and that would cause new problems.
'Leaving it in there longer than -- in hindsight -- we will think was appropriate, will create the next series of problems, whatever those are,' Mr. Hoenig said.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his allies argue that today's economy is too weak and banks too reluctant to lend to generate much inflation. They also vow that the Fed will buy bonds only as long as inflation lingers below the central bank's implicit target of 2%. And they say the purchases are temporary. When the economy returns to health or if inflation rises much, the Fed plans to stop buying and possibly to sell the bonds in the market.
Between now and June, the Fed will be purchasing $110 billion of Treasury notes and bonds a month, $75 billion a month in its new program and $35 billion a month to replace mortgage bonds in its portfolio that are maturing. In the same period, the Treasury will be issuing about $114 billion of new debt each month, estimates Louis Crandall, an analyst at Wrightson ICAP LLC.
Central banks regularly buy and sell government bonds to influence short-term interest rates, but rarely on such a large scale to influence long-term rates.
The markets don't seem alarmed. Although commodities and gold prices are rising -- crude-oil prices have risen 6% in just four days -- bond markets aren't signaling big inflation worries among investors.
Yields on two-year Treasury notes fell to 0.33%, the lowest in more than five decades. The market for inflation-protected Treasury securities, which compensate investors for future inflation, suggests investors expect just 1.5% inflation over the next five years, according to calculations by Michael Pond of Barclays Capital. That is up from 1.15% in August, but still relatively low.
If investors saw a big inflation risk, yields would be higher.
'At the moment, people clearly don't have conviction that there is going to be high inflation because if they did, the government would be paying much higher interest rates. . . . We wouldn't have the 10-year borrowing rate at 2.5%,' said Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economist.
Jon Hilsenrath
The Fed's decision this week to buy $600 billion more of U.S. Treasury debt is setting off a debate about the risks of a central bank entwining its policies so tightly with the government's fiscal fortunes. The Fed is essentially lending enough money to the government to fund its operations for several months, something called 'monetizing the debt.'
In normal times, this is one of the great taboos of central banking because it is seen as a step toward spiraling inflation and because it risks encouraging reckless government spending.
The central bank is betting these aren't normal times. Financial markets Thursday responded warmly to the Fed move, but outspoken critics of the policy issued full-throated critiques.
'It is doubtful the Fed decision will produce any results,' Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega told reporters following a cabinet meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Officials in Brazil, which averaged 850% annual inflation in the 1990s, have been critical of the Fed's easy-money policies because they are spurring price pressures abroad and could encourage new asset bubbles outside the U.S.
'Throwing money out of a helicopter doesn't do any good,' Mr. Mantega said.
Thomas Hoenig, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve and the lone dissenter in Wednesday's decision, said in an interview Thursday that he worried the Fed would be too slow to reverse the policy and that would cause new problems.
'Leaving it in there longer than -- in hindsight -- we will think was appropriate, will create the next series of problems, whatever those are,' Mr. Hoenig said.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his allies argue that today's economy is too weak and banks too reluctant to lend to generate much inflation. They also vow that the Fed will buy bonds only as long as inflation lingers below the central bank's implicit target of 2%. And they say the purchases are temporary. When the economy returns to health or if inflation rises much, the Fed plans to stop buying and possibly to sell the bonds in the market.
Between now and June, the Fed will be purchasing $110 billion of Treasury notes and bonds a month, $75 billion a month in its new program and $35 billion a month to replace mortgage bonds in its portfolio that are maturing. In the same period, the Treasury will be issuing about $114 billion of new debt each month, estimates Louis Crandall, an analyst at Wrightson ICAP LLC.
Central banks regularly buy and sell government bonds to influence short-term interest rates, but rarely on such a large scale to influence long-term rates.
The markets don't seem alarmed. Although commodities and gold prices are rising -- crude-oil prices have risen 6% in just four days -- bond markets aren't signaling big inflation worries among investors.
Yields on two-year Treasury notes fell to 0.33%, the lowest in more than five decades. The market for inflation-protected Treasury securities, which compensate investors for future inflation, suggests investors expect just 1.5% inflation over the next five years, according to calculations by Michael Pond of Barclays Capital. That is up from 1.15% in August, but still relatively low.
If investors saw a big inflation risk, yields would be higher.
'At the moment, people clearly don't have conviction that there is going to be high inflation because if they did, the government would be paying much higher interest rates. . . . We wouldn't have the 10-year borrowing rate at 2.5%,' said Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economist.
Jon Hilsenrath
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