世
界经济正变得越来越强健。经过一年半的经济正增长，我们离金融危机深处越来越远。完全复元还将需要更多时间，但与危机最严重时期和复苏初期面临的挑战比起来，我们现在面临的挑战已经不再那么让人望而却步。
我们现在面临的挑战更加可控，其内容则是在一个经济条件差异很大的世界中实现共同利益的挑战。在20国集团(G20)领导人峰会于韩国举行的前夕，世界面临着两条非常不同的实现稳定增长的转型道路。
主要发达经济体在修复金融危机所造成损失之际，增长会更加缓慢。金融危机过后的复苏总是艰难而缓慢的。金融过剩越多，危机就越深，从中爬出来也就越发艰难。
随着个人自然地转向提高储蓄、降低债务，支出的复苏就更加缓慢。随着金融机构降低杠杆率、积累对冲损失的准备金，一段时间内借款成本将会更高。这些调整会在短时间减缓经济增长，而对于增大中期内实现更可持续增长的可能性，却是必要的一步。
相比之下，新兴经济体总体上实现了迅速复苏，正在快速增长。事实应该会证明，这些经济体将实现一段持续的快速增长，期间生产率、生活水平和收入都将提高。现在它们正处在这一过程的不同阶段。危机期间，随着贸易崩溃、全球避险情绪大增，资本纷纷逃离这些经济体，而在危机过后，现在它们面临的是相反的挑战，即大规模的资本流入，根本推动因素是投资者预料这些经济体的增长速度将相对较快。面临这个问题好过面临相反的问题，但资本流入会造成压力，特别是资产市场的压力，所以必须小心应对，并采用一系列政策工具。
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这种双轨复苏将长时间主导全球经济。它带来的风险和挑战，比过去两年管理危机时存在的风险和挑战更加多样。
这个全球合作新议程由四个目标来定义：
第一个目标，我们必须一致努力，强化全球经济增长。新兴经济体的快速增长正在推高大宗商品价格，其中很多经济体正在收紧政策，以降低国内的通货膨胀风险。然而，虽然这些新兴经济体增长迅速，但它们全部加起来只占全球约三分之一的产出，而整个世界的总体增长仍然不够强劲。
世界经济面临的主要风险不是发达经济体或将出现通货膨胀，其通胀预期目前稳定在相对较低的水平，主要风险是这些国家不能实现充分增长。这些经济体必须寻找出路，以巩固保持长期增长的经济基础，这些基础包括培育创新能力、提高劳动力的技能、消除市场准入障碍以及为劳动力参与经济发展提供更有力的激励方案。
其次，鉴于发达国家存在增长乏力的风险，世界各国应实现平衡增长。实现这种平衡不是出于一己私利，而是因为它对全球经济保持强劲、可持续的增长以及对未来金融稳定性都至关重要。从根本上说，我们正在试图推动全球增长，而不是转移这种增长，以期实现强劲、可持续和平衡的全球经济增长。
鉴于主要经济体以前背负了巨大的财政赤字，目前还在应对经济危机的遗留问题，加之美国继续增加储蓄、减少借贷，因此新兴市场和顺差经济体未来的增长点将从出口拉动向国内需求转移，中国、巴西和印度等国正在这么做。为促进这些国家的经济转型，20国集团财长和央行行长上月在韩国庆州一致同意，支持需求从逆差经济体向顺差经济体转移，防范过多的外部失衡再次抬头，外部失衡可能会威胁未来的经济增长和稳定。该框架必须充分反映个体国家的实际国情和具体现实，但同时还能在外部失衡破坏经济增长之前提供一个实用的预警系统。
再次，为帮助顺利转型，应建立一个新合作框架，允许各国汇率反映其经济基本面，支持所需的国内经济结构改革。汇率问题曾经是美国、欧洲和日本应解决的问题，但这种做法将不再适应当今世界经济新格局。目前，主要发达经济体的汇率大致保持一致。然而，正如发达国家为促进储备货币的稳定必须保持紧密合作一样，新兴经济体也同样需要允许本国汇率体现其在过去十年实现的经济大幅增长，并能够更灵活地应对基本市场力量。
庆州举行的20国财长会议上，美国、新加坡和澳大利亚三国均承诺不会让本国货币发生竞争性贬值。经济史表明，生产力成功转型的经济体其有效汇率将逐渐上升，支持其民众生活水平的提高。
最后，应继续开放市场，努力扩大贸易规模，维持全世界的公平竞争环境。新兴市场的增长仍依赖于是否能够获得发达经济体的产品和服务，而更成熟的经济体将继续从新兴市场增加的需求方面不断获益。金融危机期间，20国集团有效合作，阻止限制贸易的保护主义措施，本周应再次重申这种承诺。
我们在为经济持续复苏奠定基础方面取得了很大进展，这一经济复苏受投资和创新带动，由更高的国内储蓄为其提供资金，并拥有了更为稳定的金融体系。如今，我们决意用同样的决心、同样的合作精神迎接摆在面前的诸项挑战。我们三国将继续与20国集团其它伙伴保持合作，建立一个更强大的多边合作框架，实现世界各国的共同繁荣。
（编者按：作者盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)为美国财政部长，尚达曼(Tharman Shanmugaratnam)是新加坡财政部长，斯万(Wayne Swan)为澳大利亚国库部长。）
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
The world economy is getting stronger.
After a year and a half of positive economic growth, we are putting more distance between us and the depth of the financial crisis. It will take more time to fully repair the damage, but the challenges facing us now are less daunting than those we faced at the worst of the crisis and during the initial period of recovery.
While more manageable, the challenges facing us now are those of working for the common good in a world of widely differing economic conditions. On the eve of the Group of 20 Leaders' Summit in Korea, the world faces two very different transitions to stable growth.
The major developed economies will grow more slowly as they repair the damage of the financial crisis. Recoveries that follow financial crises are always tough and slow. The greater the financial excess, the deeper the hole and the harder it is to climb out of it.
As individuals naturally shift to saving more and paying down debt, spending is slower to recover. As financial institutions reduce leverage and build reserves against losses, the cost of borrowing will be higher for a time. These adjustments slow growth in the short term but are a necessary step to improve the prospects for more sustainable growth over the medium term.
In contrast, the emerging economies have by and large seen sharp recoveries and are growing rapidly. Those economies are in varying stages of what should prove to be a sustained period of rapid growth, with rising productivity, and higher living standards and incomes. After a crisis in which capital fled these economies when trade collapsed and global risk aversion spiked, they now face the opposite challenge: large inflows of capital, driven fundamentally by expectations of relatively rapid economic growth. This is a better problem to have than the alternative, but capital inflows create pressures especially in asset markets that must be managed carefully and with a range of policy tools.
The deep challenges left by the crisis in the established economies and the prospect of rapid expansion in emerging economies necessitate a new agenda for international economic cooperation. We are past the point where public policy around the world was directed exclusively to averting a depression. We now face diverse transitions to a sustainable path of growth led by the private sector.
This two-track recovery will dominate the global economy for a long time to come. And it brings more varied risks and challenges than those of the past two years of managing crisis.
Four objectives define this new agenda for global cooperation.
First, we must work together to strengthen global economic growth. Rapid growth in emerging economies is pushing up commodity prices, and many of those economies are tightening policy to reduce the risk of domestic inflation. However, these emerging economies, while growing quickly, collectively represent only about a third of global output, and overall growth for the world at large is still not strong enough.
The main risk for the world is not inflation in the advanced economies, where inflation expectations are stable at relatively low levels, but that the advanced economies underachieve on growth. Those economies must look for ways to strengthen underlying foundations of long-term growth, including fostering innovation and developing higher skills in the labor force, removing impediments to market entry, and providing stronger incentives for labor force participation.
Second, because of this risk, we need to strike a balance on the pattern of growth across countries. Balance matters not for its own sake, but because it is critical to strong and sustained growth globally and to future financial stability. Ultimately we are trying to lift global growth, not just shift it -- so as to deliver strong, sustainable and balanced growth.
As the major economies that previously ran large deficits deal with the legacy of the crisis, and as the United States continues to increase savings and reduce borrowing, future growth in emerging economies and surplus economies will have to shift away from exports and toward domestic demand, as is now happening in China, Brazil, India and other such economies. To help ease this transition, the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors agreed last month in Gyeongju, Korea to support the shift of demand from deficit to surplus economies and guard against the reemergence of excessive external imbalances that could threaten future growth and stability. This framework must adequately reflect individual country circumstances and practical realities, but can provide a useful early warning system before imbalances destabilize growth.
Third, to help smooth these transitions, we need a new framework for cooperation to allow exchange rates to reflect economic fundamentals and support needed structural reforms. Currency issues were once left to the United States, Europe and Japan, but that will no longer work in the new world economy. The currencies of the major advanced economies are roughly in alignment with each other today. However, just as they must continue working together to promote stability among reserve currencies, so too do the emerging economies need to allow their exchange rates to reflect the substantial growth they have achieved in their economies over the last decade and to respond more flexibly to underlying market forces.
At the G-20 meeting in Gyeongju, all of us committed not to engage in competitive devaluation of our currencies. Economic history suggests that economies that succeed in transforming productivity will see an appreciation in their effective exchange rates over time, supporting the rise in their living standards.
And finally, we need to continue to keep our markets open and work to expand trade and maintain a level playing field across countries. Growth in the emerging economies still depends on access to products and services of the advanced economies. And the more established economies will continue to benefit increasingly from increased demand in the new emerging economies. During the crisis, the G-20 acted effectively to prevent protectionist measures to restrict trade, and we need to reaffirm that commitment this week.
We have made a lot of progress in laying the foundations for a sustained recovery, led by investment and innovation, financed by higher domestic savings, and with a more stable financial system. And we are determined to meet the challenges before us with the same resolve and in the same spirit of partnership. Our countries will continue to work with G-20 partners to build a stronger framework for multilateral cooperation to secure a world of mutual prosperity.
Timothy Geithner, Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Wayne Swan
(Editor's Note: Mr. Geithner is treasury secretary of the United States. Mr. Tharman is finance minister of Singapore. Mr. Swan is treasurer of Australia.)
After a year and a half of positive economic growth, we are putting more distance between us and the depth of the financial crisis. It will take more time to fully repair the damage, but the challenges facing us now are less daunting than those we faced at the worst of the crisis and during the initial period of recovery.
While more manageable, the challenges facing us now are those of working for the common good in a world of widely differing economic conditions. On the eve of the Group of 20 Leaders' Summit in Korea, the world faces two very different transitions to stable growth.
The major developed economies will grow more slowly as they repair the damage of the financial crisis. Recoveries that follow financial crises are always tough and slow. The greater the financial excess, the deeper the hole and the harder it is to climb out of it.
As individuals naturally shift to saving more and paying down debt, spending is slower to recover. As financial institutions reduce leverage and build reserves against losses, the cost of borrowing will be higher for a time. These adjustments slow growth in the short term but are a necessary step to improve the prospects for more sustainable growth over the medium term.
In contrast, the emerging economies have by and large seen sharp recoveries and are growing rapidly. Those economies are in varying stages of what should prove to be a sustained period of rapid growth, with rising productivity, and higher living standards and incomes. After a crisis in which capital fled these economies when trade collapsed and global risk aversion spiked, they now face the opposite challenge: large inflows of capital, driven fundamentally by expectations of relatively rapid economic growth. This is a better problem to have than the alternative, but capital inflows create pressures especially in asset markets that must be managed carefully and with a range of policy tools.
The deep challenges left by the crisis in the established economies and the prospect of rapid expansion in emerging economies necessitate a new agenda for international economic cooperation. We are past the point where public policy around the world was directed exclusively to averting a depression. We now face diverse transitions to a sustainable path of growth led by the private sector.
This two-track recovery will dominate the global economy for a long time to come. And it brings more varied risks and challenges than those of the past two years of managing crisis.
Four objectives define this new agenda for global cooperation.
First, we must work together to strengthen global economic growth. Rapid growth in emerging economies is pushing up commodity prices, and many of those economies are tightening policy to reduce the risk of domestic inflation. However, these emerging economies, while growing quickly, collectively represent only about a third of global output, and overall growth for the world at large is still not strong enough.
The main risk for the world is not inflation in the advanced economies, where inflation expectations are stable at relatively low levels, but that the advanced economies underachieve on growth. Those economies must look for ways to strengthen underlying foundations of long-term growth, including fostering innovation and developing higher skills in the labor force, removing impediments to market entry, and providing stronger incentives for labor force participation.
Second, because of this risk, we need to strike a balance on the pattern of growth across countries. Balance matters not for its own sake, but because it is critical to strong and sustained growth globally and to future financial stability. Ultimately we are trying to lift global growth, not just shift it -- so as to deliver strong, sustainable and balanced growth.
As the major economies that previously ran large deficits deal with the legacy of the crisis, and as the United States continues to increase savings and reduce borrowing, future growth in emerging economies and surplus economies will have to shift away from exports and toward domestic demand, as is now happening in China, Brazil, India and other such economies. To help ease this transition, the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors agreed last month in Gyeongju, Korea to support the shift of demand from deficit to surplus economies and guard against the reemergence of excessive external imbalances that could threaten future growth and stability. This framework must adequately reflect individual country circumstances and practical realities, but can provide a useful early warning system before imbalances destabilize growth.
Third, to help smooth these transitions, we need a new framework for cooperation to allow exchange rates to reflect economic fundamentals and support needed structural reforms. Currency issues were once left to the United States, Europe and Japan, but that will no longer work in the new world economy. The currencies of the major advanced economies are roughly in alignment with each other today. However, just as they must continue working together to promote stability among reserve currencies, so too do the emerging economies need to allow their exchange rates to reflect the substantial growth they have achieved in their economies over the last decade and to respond more flexibly to underlying market forces.
At the G-20 meeting in Gyeongju, all of us committed not to engage in competitive devaluation of our currencies. Economic history suggests that economies that succeed in transforming productivity will see an appreciation in their effective exchange rates over time, supporting the rise in their living standards.
And finally, we need to continue to keep our markets open and work to expand trade and maintain a level playing field across countries. Growth in the emerging economies still depends on access to products and services of the advanced economies. And the more established economies will continue to benefit increasingly from increased demand in the new emerging economies. During the crisis, the G-20 acted effectively to prevent protectionist measures to restrict trade, and we need to reaffirm that commitment this week.
We have made a lot of progress in laying the foundations for a sustained recovery, led by investment and innovation, financed by higher domestic savings, and with a more stable financial system. And we are determined to meet the challenges before us with the same resolve and in the same spirit of partnership. Our countries will continue to work with G-20 partners to build a stronger framework for multilateral cooperation to secure a world of mutual prosperity.
Timothy Geithner, Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Wayne Swan
(Editor's Note: Mr. Geithner is treasury secretary of the United States. Mr. Tharman is finance minister of Singapore. Mr. Swan is treasurer of Australia.)
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