中
国对全球稀土行业的控制正迅速成为全球政策议程的首要议题。不过应该采取何种措施？它又将产生多大程度的影响呢？
Reuters
中国内蒙古自治区的稀土之乡
然而，尽管稀土对高科技和军事应用可能具有重要的价值，但所有这些忙乱和不安对于一个每年产值仅有大约20亿美元的行业来说真的值得吗？如果是的话，对抗是最好的策略吗？
Molycorp Inc.的首席执行长史密斯(Mark Smith)周三在香港接受本报采访时透露，他的公司偶尔会从中国进口稀土金属，公司受到了中国海关额外的文件审查，这使得发货时间增加了几天。
史密斯说，由于中国政府对走私者的打击，主要问题可能是想确保从中国港口出口的货物是合法的。他说，新的海关问询通常与提供配额及货品价格有关。
史密斯说，全球的当务之急应该是让其他生产商投入生产，包括澳大利亚Lynas Corp.和Molycorp的矿场，这两处矿场分别将在2011年和2012年重新开始生产。
老牌行业如石油业和新兴行业如电池制造业吵着要求得到答案，此时全球范围已迅速开始行动。据本报所见稀土行业两位全球顶尖分析师发表的报告，随着这一中国之外的项目开工，到2015年时稀土供应量实际上就要比需求量多出20,000公吨左右。
这两位分析师一位是罗斯基尔信息服务公司(Roskill Information Services)的董事总经理车竹薇(Judith Chegwidden)，另一位是澳大利亚工业矿产公司(Industrial Minerals Co. of Australia)的执行董事金司诺司(Dudley Kingsnorth)。二人在为一个行业活动准备的联合报告中认为，2015年时全球需求将达到185,000公吨，高于2010年时的125,000公吨。
一位加利福尼亚州的投资者在评论这份报告时说，这些数据表明，认为中国对稀土的掌控将限制全球行业的观点很大程度上是言过其实了。他说，看来供需之间的不平衡（今后将会）更加严重。
一名常驻美国、看好该行业短期前景的稀土交易员对稀土价格近日的涨势进行了一番调侃：价格有点太过了，但它还没玩完。
其他人说，由于不能确定中国将会采取何种举措，需求只是因此被延时了。这也许会促使人们在炼油等行业中寻找替代技术，并导致磁制冷这样的新型应用技术受到延误。
Hudson Resources Inc.的总裁图尔(James Tuer)说，我无法忽视他们在减小需求的事实，他们仅仅是因为无法保证供应而减小了需求。该公司正在格陵兰岛开发一处稀土生产基地。
开工生产需要数年时间。Lynas的首席执行长柯蒂斯(Nicholas Curtis)的一份周三被公布到澳大利亚证交所网站上的报告让人们看到了该公司一个项目在工时方面遇到的挑战：300,000个工程工时，四百万个建筑工时。
Molycorp的史密斯说，不管是在G-20上还是在别处，领导人的确需要讨论稀土问题，它是几乎每一个制造业行业的重要基础，但要以一种协作而不是对抗的方式来讨论。技术交流，主要是帮助中国对其稀土行业进行清理，这是任何国际努力以及加强稀土行业信息国际交流的中心问题。
他说，另一方面，诉诸WTO可能起到的作用只会是在若干年之后，眼下我们的问题是紧迫的。
James T. Areddy
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
China's control of the global rare-earth industry is surging toward the top of the global policy agenda. But what should be done? And how much does it matter?
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is raising the issue ahead of this week's meeting of the Group of 20 nations in South Korea, as are business groups around the world. Some have said China should face international pressure at the G-20 to export more rare-earth minerals. There are also suggestions that the U.S., Germany or Japan should file a complaint over China's export quotas at the World Trade Organization. Meanwhile, Japanese users of the metals are already scrambling for alternative supplies.
But, as important as rare earths may be for high tech and military applications, is all this fuss worthwhile for an industry only worth some $2 billion annually? And if it is, then is confrontation the best strategy?
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal in Hong Kong on Wednesday, Molycorp Inc. (MCP) Chief Executive Mark Smith revealed that his company, which occasionally imports metals from China, has experienced extra scrutiny of documents by China Customs that add 'just a couple of days' to shipment times.
The main issue, Smith said, is likely a 'desire to make sure what is being exported from the Chinese ports is being legally exported' as the government pinches smugglers. New Customs questions, he said, are usually related to proving quota allocation and price for the goods.
Smith said the global priority should be to get alternative producers going, including mines from Australia's Lynas Corp. (LYSDY, LYC.AU) and Molycorp that are due to restart production in 2011 and 2012, respectively.
Globally activity is already ramping up quickly, as old industries such as the oil sector and new ones such as battery makers clamor for answers. As this production outside China comes online, supply will actually outstrip demand by around 20,000 metric tons in 2015, according to a presentation by two of the world's leading rare-earth analysts reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
In their joint presentation for an industry event, the analysts, Judith Chegwidden, managing director of Roskill Information Services, and Dudley Kingsnorth, executive director of Industrial Minerals Co. of Australia, put global demand at 185,000 metric tons in 2015, up from 125,000 metric tons in 2010.
A California investor, commenting on the presentation, said such figures suggest the idea that China's lock on rare earths will constrict global industry is mostly hype. 'Now there's a larger [looming] disparity between supply and demand,' he said.
A U.S.-based rare-earth trader who is bullish on the sector in the short term quipped about a recent jump in rare earth prices: 'It's overdone, but it's not done.'
Others said demand is merely delayed as a result of uncertainty about what China will do. That may give impetus to find alternative technologies in industries such as oil refining and as new applications such as magnetic refrigeration get delayed.
'I wouldn't take away the fact that they are reducing demand. They are only reducing demand because they can't secure supply,' said James Tuer, president of Hudson Resources Inc. (HUDRF, HUD.V), which is developing a rare-earth production base in Greenland.
Production takes years to come online. A presentation by Nicholas Curtis, CEO of Lynas and posted to the Australian Stock Exchange website on Wednesday, underscored the challenge in man-hours for one of its projects: 300,000 for engineering and four million for construction.
Molycorp's Smith said leaders, whether at the G-20 or elsewhere, do need to discuss rare earths, which are 'at the very base of almost every manufacturing sector,' but in a collaborative, rather than, combative way. Technology exchanges, primarily to help China clean up its industry, could be at the heart of any international efforts as well as better international exchange of information about the sector.
A case at the WTO, on the other hand, would likely produce results only 'multiple, multiple years down the road,' he said. 'Our problem right now is immediate.'
James T. Areddy
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is raising the issue ahead of this week's meeting of the Group of 20 nations in South Korea, as are business groups around the world. Some have said China should face international pressure at the G-20 to export more rare-earth minerals. There are also suggestions that the U.S., Germany or Japan should file a complaint over China's export quotas at the World Trade Organization. Meanwhile, Japanese users of the metals are already scrambling for alternative supplies.
But, as important as rare earths may be for high tech and military applications, is all this fuss worthwhile for an industry only worth some $2 billion annually? And if it is, then is confrontation the best strategy?
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal in Hong Kong on Wednesday, Molycorp Inc. (MCP) Chief Executive Mark Smith revealed that his company, which occasionally imports metals from China, has experienced extra scrutiny of documents by China Customs that add 'just a couple of days' to shipment times.
The main issue, Smith said, is likely a 'desire to make sure what is being exported from the Chinese ports is being legally exported' as the government pinches smugglers. New Customs questions, he said, are usually related to proving quota allocation and price for the goods.
Smith said the global priority should be to get alternative producers going, including mines from Australia's Lynas Corp. (LYSDY, LYC.AU) and Molycorp that are due to restart production in 2011 and 2012, respectively.
Globally activity is already ramping up quickly, as old industries such as the oil sector and new ones such as battery makers clamor for answers. As this production outside China comes online, supply will actually outstrip demand by around 20,000 metric tons in 2015, according to a presentation by two of the world's leading rare-earth analysts reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
In their joint presentation for an industry event, the analysts, Judith Chegwidden, managing director of Roskill Information Services, and Dudley Kingsnorth, executive director of Industrial Minerals Co. of Australia, put global demand at 185,000 metric tons in 2015, up from 125,000 metric tons in 2010.
A California investor, commenting on the presentation, said such figures suggest the idea that China's lock on rare earths will constrict global industry is mostly hype. 'Now there's a larger [looming] disparity between supply and demand,' he said.
A U.S.-based rare-earth trader who is bullish on the sector in the short term quipped about a recent jump in rare earth prices: 'It's overdone, but it's not done.'
Others said demand is merely delayed as a result of uncertainty about what China will do. That may give impetus to find alternative technologies in industries such as oil refining and as new applications such as magnetic refrigeration get delayed.
'I wouldn't take away the fact that they are reducing demand. They are only reducing demand because they can't secure supply,' said James Tuer, president of Hudson Resources Inc. (HUDRF, HUD.V), which is developing a rare-earth production base in Greenland.
Production takes years to come online. A presentation by Nicholas Curtis, CEO of Lynas and posted to the Australian Stock Exchange website on Wednesday, underscored the challenge in man-hours for one of its projects: 300,000 for engineering and four million for construction.
Molycorp's Smith said leaders, whether at the G-20 or elsewhere, do need to discuss rare earths, which are 'at the very base of almost every manufacturing sector,' but in a collaborative, rather than, combative way. Technology exchanges, primarily to help China clean up its industry, could be at the heart of any international efforts as well as better international exchange of information about the sector.
A case at the WTO, on the other hand, would likely produce results only 'multiple, multiple years down the road,' he said. 'Our problem right now is immediate.'
James T. Areddy
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