一份学术研究报告表明，一些国家往往会因接待达赖喇嘛(Dalai Lama)而影响到与中国之间的贸易关系——但只是在随后的两年内。正如报告所说的那样，目前波兰与中国的关系有所改善，而该国领导人2008年曾会见达赖。
中国全国政协主席贾庆林率领的一个高级代表团本周正在访问波兰。尽管波兰可能没有非洲和拉丁美洲那样的自然资源，但对于中国投资者而言，它的确有三个颇具吸引力的地方。
其中之一是庞大的基础设施投资——这已使波兰成为了欧洲最大的建筑工地。在当前的2007-2013年欧盟预算周期期间，欧盟将大约670亿欧元（合940亿美元）的结构性基金投入波兰，推动该国改造数百条落后的公路和铁路。
周三，波兰国家公路和高速公路总局(GDDKIA)副局长马格达莱纳•亚沃尔斯卡(Magdalena Jaworska)在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，如果没有欧盟，波兰在建的公路和高速公路数量只会有目前的三分之一。这些合同已经引起了中国人的兴趣：中国海外工程有限责任公司(China Overseas Engineering Group)正在建造从柏林到华沙的A2公路中的两个路段。
中国人还有意把波兰作为立足点，向规模更大的欧盟市场渗透。电信巨头华为(Huawei)的情况就是如此：2008年，它帮助Play建造了波兰第四个移动电话网络，并利用这种经历，成为欧洲大陆一家重要的电信运营商。
第三个因素是波兰拥有3800万消费者的国内市场——尽管去年经济低迷令欧盟其它地区陷入衰退，但波兰人继续大举消费。通过与波兰的Pol-Mot合作，中国人可能很快将在东部城市卢布林开始组装福田(Foton)拖拉机和威虎(Grand Tiger)皮卡车。
波兰与中国的贸易关系（2008年和2009年的贸易额分别为100亿美元和90亿美元）无法与德国相比。但它一直未受全球危机和政治敏感性的影响。鉴于达赖喇嘛表示，自己现在希望能够更频繁地重返波兰，这可能不是一件坏事。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035395
According to an academic study, countries that host the Dalai Lama tend to see their trade ties with China suffer - but only for the following two years. Poland, whose leaders last met the Dalai in 2008, is now seeing its relationship with China improve, as the study would suggest.
A high-level Chinese delegation is visiting the country this week, headed by senior political advisor Jia Qinglin (pictured, with Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski). Although Poland may lack the natural resources of Africa and Latin America, it does have three key attractions for Chinese investors.
One is the enormous infrastructure investment that has turned Poland into Europe’s largest building site. Some €67bn ($94bn) in EU structural funds are pouring into the country during the current 2007-2013 EU budget cycle, spurring it to make up centuries of poor roads and railways.
In an interview on Wednesday with the FT, Magdalena Jaworska, the deputy head of the GDDKiA, the government road-building agency, says that without EU, Poland would only be building about a third of the highways and expressways currently under construction. Those contracts have already attracted Chinese interest: China Overseas Engineering Group, one of the country’s largest engineering companies, is building two segments of the A2 highway running from Berlin to Warsaw.
The Chinese are also interested in using Poland as a beachhead for penetration of the larger EU market. That was the case of telecoms giant Huawei: it helped build Poland’s fourth mobile telephone network for Play in 2008, and used that experience to become a serious player across the continent.
The third factor is Poland’s domestic market of 38m consumers, who have continued to spend strongly in spite of the downturn that drove the rest of the EU into recession last year. China’s Foton tractors and Grand Tiger pickup trucks may soon be assembled in Lublin, in eastern Poland, in partnership with Poland’s Pol-Mot.
Poland’s trade relationship with China, which amounted to $9bn in 2009 and $10bn in 2008, can’t match Germany’s. But it has been resilient to the global crisis - and political sensitivities. That may be no bad thing, given that the Dalai Lama says he now hopes to return to Poland more frequently.
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