乍一看，中国航空公司报告的第三季度利润增幅令人震惊。
东方航空(China Eastern Airlines)表示，第三季度净利润同比增长13524%或136倍，达到创纪录的逾30亿元人民币。中国国航(Air China)也公布第三季度净利润达到创纪录的逾50亿元人民币，不过同比增幅仅有483%。
中国三大国有航空公司的第三家——南方航空(China Southern)报告，第三季度净利润略多于30亿元人民币，同比增长970%。
但是更仔细地审视一下就会发现，这些骄人业绩主要是上述航空公司过往表现异常疲软的结果。
中国三大航空公司10月底公布的季度利润大幅上涨，主要是由于它们去年的比较基数很低。当时，它们仍受到油价暴跌前对燃油期货合约错误押注造成的巨额亏损的影响。
尽管在过去10年的大多数时间，客运量一直呈两位数增长，但多年来，中国航空公司一直面临亏损和巨额债务，政府不得不多次注资，以维持其正常运营。
今年，人民币的升值也让航空公司受益匪浅：航空公司因购买飞机而背负的债务几乎全部是以外币计价的，人民币升值降低了其偿付成本。
此外，客运量增长格外强劲，特别是国内旅客方面；而且票价一直处于高位——成为提高利润的另一个因素。
中国各航空公司财富的增长，已促使美国航空巨头波音(Boeing)上调了对中国未来几年购买大飞机数量的预测。
波音现在预测，未来20年，中国航空公司将支出约4800亿美元，购买4330架新飞机，让中国成为仅次于美国的全球第二大商用飞机市场。
过去10年，中国航空客运市场和机队规模都增长了两倍以上。中国目前有1600架民航客机，每年搭载乘客逾2.55亿人次。波音预测，未来10年，中国的机队规模将翻一番。
“我们目前（在中国）看到的增长，与美国喷气式飞机时代(jet age)开始时基本上一样，”波音商用飞机部门营销副总裁兰迪•廷塞斯(Randy Tinseth)表示。“今天，中国拥有全球规模最大、最年轻、最有能力的飞机机队之一。”
波音上调中国未来对飞机的需求（较先前的预期上调了10%至15%），在一定程度上是由于对中国经济增长的预期调高了，但也是因为波音现在认为，中国的航空公司将更具竞争力，将在国际运输中占据更大份额，特别是在往返中国的航线上。
中国政府已经启动了自主研制大飞机的计划，希望能与波音和空客(Airbus)竞争。如果计划成功，那么在中国各航空公司未来几十年预计将购买的数千架飞机中，有许多可能最终将由中国自主设计和制造。
无论这些飞机是美国制造还是本国制造，都不会改变一个事实：过去一年里到过中国的任何旅客都能证明，航空公司和基础设施尚且无法满足运载量增长的需要，因而造成了没完没了的航班延误，机场有时还会出现混乱场面。
如果北京的公路交通可以引以为鉴，那么对于经常坐飞机的人而言，波音之福未必就是一件幸事。
译者/梁艳裳
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035396
At first glance, the profit increases reported by Chinese airlines in the third quarter are stunning.
China Eastern Airlines said its net profit in the third quarter rose 13,524 per cent, or 136-fold, from the same period a year earlier to a record of more than Rmb3bn. Air China also reported a record quarterly net profit in the third quarter of more than Rmb5bn, although that was a paltry increase of just 483 per cent over the same period a year earlier.
The third of the “big three” state carriers, China Southern, reported a net profit of just over Rmb3bn, which was an increase of 970 per cent from a year earlier.
But on closer inspection, the spectacular results are more the result of the airlines’ unusually poor past performance.
The leaps in quarterly profits reported in the last week are largely due to a very low base last year, when the airlines were still suffering in the aftermath of huge losses they racked up from wrong bets they made on jet fuel futures contracts prior to the crash in oil prices.
Despite double digit passenger growth for most of the last decade, Chinese airlines have struggled with years of losses and huge debts that have required the state to pump money into them on a number of occasions to keep them airborne.
The airlines are also benefiting this year from a rise in the renminbi, which lowers their repayments on debt used to buy aircraft, which is almost all denominated in foreign currency.
Still, passenger growth has been especially strong, particularly among domestic travelers, and ticket prices have remained high - another boost to profits.
The improving fortunes of Chinese airlines has led Boeing, the American aerospace giant, to raise its estimates for how many big jets they will buy in the coming years.
Boeing now predicts Chinese airlines will spend around $480bn on buying 4,330 new aircraft over the next 20 years, making the Chinese market for commercial aircraft the second largest in the world after the United States.
The air passenger market and total jet fleet in China have both tripled in the last 10 years with 1,600 planes now carrying more than 255m passengers a year and Boeing predicts the total fleet will double over the next decade.
“The growth we’re seeing [in China] is basically the same as what we saw at the start of the jet age in the US,” said Randy Tinseth, vice-president of marketing for Boeing’s commercial aircraft division. “Today China has one of the largest, youngest and most capable fleet of aircraft in the world.”
Boeing has raised its estimate of future Chinese demand for aircraft - by 10-15 per cent compared to previous predictions - partly because of higher economic growth expectations, but also because Boeing now thinks Chinese airlines will be more competitive and take a bigger share of international traffic, especially to and from China.
The Chinese government has launched a programme to develop its own larger aircraft to compete with Boeing and Airbus and if it is successful many of the thousands of planes its airlines are expected to buy in the coming decades could eventually be designed and made in China.
Whether the plans are American-made or home-grown won’t change one thing. Any traveler who has visited China in the last 12 months can attest to the fact that the airlines and infrastructure are not yet able to cope with increased traffic, leading to interminable delays and sometimes chaotic scenes in airports.
If the road traffic on the streets of Beijing is anything to go by, a boom for Boeing may be a mixed blessing for frequent fliers.
没有评论:
发表评论