2011年8月31日

承德露露:二季度效应

自07年开始,公司的二季度效应比较明显,表现在毛利率水平的下滑和经营现金流的下滑甚至转负。今年也不例外的重演了这一规律。经营现金流的下滑在销售收入相对其他几个季度极低的情况下容易理解,但毛利率水平下滑的原因,我还没有找到确实的答案,请高人解惑。(更新:刚刚想到二季度为什么毛利低,之前真是脑子锈掉了!严重鄙视一下自己。原因依然是销售收入锐减,而工人工资中固定的那部分以及折旧费用并不会随之减少...)

 

 图表1:过往利润率及经营现金流走势

承德露露:二季度效应

承德露露:二季度效应

今年的中报毛利率下滑,大部分的分析师都把原因归结于杏仁采购价格的大幅度上涨,但根据我从中国药材网上查到的数据,报告期内市场上的苦杏仁价格实际上从31元/公斤下降到了18元/公斤,可能公司上半年消化的都是去年价格高位时采购的存货。

 

承德露露:二季度效应

 

露露未来几年的投资逻辑,依旧是拓展相对空白销售领域以及开发新品所带来的销售收入的提升,而实现这一结果的条件之一是产能的扩张。很遗憾,据这次中报披露的郑州项目建设进度依旧缓慢,而本部的迁址扩产也并未提及。另外,尽管网友们和我本人草根调研发现露露在这个夏天的销售比过去好了不少,但财报似乎并不支持这个结论。

 

不过,随着商标纠纷问题在老王董事长受到深交所谴责后更加明朗,加之公司品牌成长路径确定(见中银国际最新报告),以及大众消费能力的持续增长,公司未来变得更好的概率将远大于变坏概率,因此我选择继续持有,等待。


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抄底的不抄底

今晨看到华尔街日报的一则新闻,全文如下:

 

“CNBC电视频道的Kate Kelly周五援引消息人士的话报道,美国银行(Bank of America Corp.)计划将所持中国建设银行股份有限公司(简称:建设银行) 10%股权的至少一半出售给由美国、中国、马来西亚和中东等国主权财富基金和机构组成的团体,目前谈判已进入最后阶段。
Kelly称,投资者团体尚未最终确定。
据报道称,本次交易或筹资85亿-90亿美元,最早可能于下周一在香港完成。
该消息人士称,美国银行之所以出售建设银行股份,主要是为了达到《巴塞尔协议III》(Basel III)新的资本金要求。
Kelly称,美国银行发言人拒绝对此置评。”

 

而就在上周,巴菲特刚刚宣布向美国银行(BAC)投资50亿美金,这笔投资将让巴氏获得5万股年息为6%的优先股,以及执行价为7.14美元的7亿股认股权证,行权期10年。当时有网友评价道:“前几天的美国银行股就绝对是一个抄底的机会。几天前的中国银行股又何尝不是,明知各大银行要公布业绩,而且上半年资金这么紧,银行的利润肯定很好,就是没有太多人去抄银行股的底,实在无语。”短短几天后,美银这个“被抄底”的公司便开始减持在看多人看来更应该“被抄底”的公司,实在有趣。

 

对于去年清仓的BAC,巴菲特为何突发浴中灵感以此种方式再度投资?我们无法去揣测他的思维逻辑,但有两个情况值得关注,一是金融海啸以来,BAC的风险一直在逐步暴露(中间好过几个季度,但最近几个季度又在亏损了),缺钱。二是在巴菲特宣布投资之前,BAC的股价过去20年几乎没涨。目前对于BAC来说,可能是最坏的时期了。在被投资者最坏的时期,投资者很容易谈成条件优厚的deal,几年前的高盛和通用如此,这次也是如此。一个6%的fixed income债券,plus一个以10年计可能的高收益,在持续低利率且经济不明朗的时期,无疑是一笔极佳的投资。

 

另外,这次巴菲特投资BAC的行为被很多人解读为“抄底”,我不是很认同。退一万步讲,就算一定要这么认为,老巴抄底的眼光至少是十年,并且这次“抄底”所需仅是他净资产的3%,这不是一般的投资者能够具备的。更重要的一点是,目前BAC确实身处举步维艰的经营谷底。再回过头看看我们那些增长华丽,从报表中丝毫嗅不到半点风险的国有银行们,是不是真的到了“抄底”的时候呢?


http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_5308f7670102dsnr.html

巴菲特二季度持仓稳定

一个新的投资经理人康布斯来了,他自己的股票组合也跟着来了。分析巴菲特过去多年的持股特点,要么不买,要么一只股票会大量买入,因此从买入金额来看,新买入的几只小股票应该是康布斯所为。

巴菲特二季度持仓稳定

作者 刘建位 来源 第一财经日报 2011-08-27 10:51
 

月15日巴菲特公布二季度伯克希尔最新股票投资组合。除了比亚迪和浦项制铁等不需向证监会报告的海外持股以 外,2011年二季末巴菲特股票投资组合总市值524亿美元,比一季末下降2.3%。同时由于要约收购WESCO金融公司其余所有股份,将其退市作为全资 下属公司,不再列入持股名单,这一原因导致整个组合市值减少22亿美元。扣除此因素,巴菲特二季度股票组合市值比一季度增长2%。而二季度美国标准普尔 500指数下跌0.4%,事实上巴菲特明显跑赢市场。

分析巴菲特投资组合二季度变动,具有如下看点:

第一,巴菲特组合变动不大,大部分股票持有不变。

以下一季末股价计算市值变动,不考虑收购WESCO导致持股市值减少22亿美元的影响,巴菲特二季度新买入两只股票、增持两只股票累计买入5亿美 元,卖出1只股票2亿美元,净买入3亿美元,占组合总市值523亿美元比例不足1%。由此可见,巴菲特股票组合绝大部分继续持有不变。

第二,从个股配置来看,继续高度集中投资。

巴菲特二季度持有股票27只,比一季度净增加1只,平均每只股票市值超过19亿美元。巴菲特继续高度集中投资。前10大重仓股占95%,巴菲特前5大重仓股占76%,其中,可口可乐25.7%、富国银行18.9%、美国运通15%、宝洁9.3%、卡夫6.7%。

第三,行业配置来看,巴菲特二季度继续重仓金融和消费品行业,两个行业就占组合82.7%。

二季度巴菲特各行业及27只持股明细情况如下:

1.金融行业持股9只,合计市值215亿美元,占组合41%。

其中:富国银行18.9%,美国运通15%,合众银行3.4%,穆迪公司2.1%,M&T银行0.9%,Torchmark保险0.4%,万事达卡0.23%,Verisk Analytics 0.14%,纽约梅隆银行0.1%。

二季度巴菲特增持万事达0.57亿美元,持股增加88%;增持富国银行2.7亿美元,持股增加2.8%;增持Torchmark保险公司0.6亿美元,持股增加50%。在美国国债出现违约危机、金融股普遍不被看好的情况下,巴菲特却增持金融股,值得关注。

伯克希尔新买入Verisk Analytics 210万股,市值0.7亿美元。Verisk有38年历史,是与美国房地产和意外保险风险相关的保险精算和保险业数据规模最大的集成商,其统计分析模式可 以察觉欺诈行为并量化损失。该股于2009年10月公开发行上市。据我分析,这应该是巴菲特新聘任的投资经理康布斯管理的GEICO公司20亿美元账户买 入的股票。因为巴菲特极少买入新上市不久的股票,而且买入量一般会高达数亿。40岁的康布斯在一季度决定买入万事达股票,在他过去管理对冲基金时就开始关 注此公司,二季度他继续大幅增持万事达。

2.消费品行业持股3只,合计市值218亿美元,占组合41.7%。其中,可口可乐25.7%,宝洁9.3%,卡夫6.7%。卡夫食品8月4日宣 布,将旗下北美食品杂货业务从全球零食业务中分拆出去,并希望在2012年年底前,它能成为一家独立上市的新公司。巴菲特对此表示支持,但继续减持卡夫食 品,因为他反对卡夫收购吉百利。

3.医药保健行业持股3只,合计市值31亿美元,占组合5.8%。其中,强生5.4%,赛诺菲安万特0.3%,葛兰素史克0.1%。

4.石油天然气行业持股2只,合计市值22亿美元,占组合4.2%。其中,康菲石油4.18%,埃克森美孚0.07%。

5.商业零售行业持股3只,合计市值25亿美元,占组合4.73%。其中,沃尔玛4%,好事多0.67%,Dollar General公司0.1%。巴菲特新买入Dollar General 0.5亿美元。该公司成立于1939年,目前在美国35个州拥有9300家分店,主要服务于那些居民人数在2.5万人以下对于沃尔玛来说规模太小的社区, 许多顾客是收入较低或依靠政府救济金的群体以及退休人员。2007年被美国私募股权投资公司KKR以73亿美元的高价收购而私有化。2009年将公司挂牌 上市,发行价为每股21美元,目前,KKR仍持有该公司近71%股份。此股买入规模很小,应该也是康布斯的投资。

6.传媒行业持股2只,合计市值7.5亿美元,占组合1.4%。其中,华盛顿邮报1.38%,Gannett报业0.05%。

7.工业产品及服务行业等持股5只,合计市值5.3亿美元,占组合1%。其中,USG建筑材料公司0.5%,通用电气0.3%,UPS快递0.2%,英格索兰0.06%,COMDISCO公司0.02%。

第四,买入金额很小的几只股票应该不是巴菲特所为。

2010年四季度巴菲特股票组合出现清仓8只股票、减持2只股票的大动作,2011年3月2日巴菲特接受CNBC电视台专访亲口揭开谜底:“对于原来的投资经理人辛普森人走了,他的股票组合也跟着走。而一个新的投资经理人来了,他自己的股票组合也跟着来了。”

新来的投资经理人就是康布斯。从最近两个季度巴菲特公布的伯克希尔公司投资组合变化来看,正如巴菲特所说,一个新的投资经理人康布斯来了,他自己的 股票组合也跟着来了。分析巴菲特过去多年的持股特点,要么不买,要么一只股票会大量买入,因此从买入金额来看,新买入的几只小股票应该是康布斯所为。他连 续两个季度买入万事达,二季度又新建仓Dollar General公司0.5亿美元和Verisk Analytics公司0.7亿美元。希望巴菲特寄予厚望的康布斯未来能够做出比前任辛普森更加辉煌的长期业绩。

第五,巴菲特大量买入的股票作为秘密并未公开披露。

巴菲特经常说他的投资秘诀是:在别人恐惧时贪婪。

2010年3月1日巴菲特接受CNBC专访时说:“我总是在一片恐惧中开始寻找。如果我发现一些看起来很有吸引力的投资目标,我就会开始贪婪地买入。”

但是从巴菲特公告的二季度投资组合变动来看,巴菲特二季度新买入两只股票、增持两只股票累计买入5亿美元,卖出1只股票2亿美元,净买入只有3亿美元。让我感到疑惑的是,为什么没有看到巴菲特贪婪地大量买入的大动作呢?

我仔细分析巴菲特的伯克希尔公司二季报,发现二季度巴菲特用来购买股票的现金支出高达36.19亿美元,是2008年第三季度该公司斥资39.4亿美元购买股票以来的最近3年最大单季买入额。可是如此大量买入的股票名单巴菲特却并未公告。

再仔细一看,在伯克希尔二季度投资组合报告中称:“机密信息被省略未公开,将单独上报文件给美国证监会。”这是巴菲特故意隐藏他在股市上的大规模买 入动作。巴菲特只会在他买入大量股票全部完成之后才会公开,这样才能让他避免市场的大量跟风。希望我们能够尽早看到巴菲特公告他二季度没有公开的大量买入 的是什么股票。

8月8日,黑色星期一,也是美国被降级后首个交易日,华尔街三大股指全部暴跌,道琼斯指数下跌5.55%,标普500指数暴跌6.66%,创出2008年12月以来最大单日跌幅。

美国当地时间8月15日,巴菲特出现在美国公共电视台(PBS)的“查理・罗斯访谈”(Charlie Rose Show)节目。

罗斯说:“你过去经常说,非常困难的时候,对于你来说却是最好的时候,因为你能够得到更多的机会以更好的价格买入符合你要求的好公司。”

巴菲特回答:“毫无疑问,的确如此。这就像商场大甩卖时买东西一样。上个星期一,我们在股票市场上买入股票用的资金比今年以来任何一天都要多。”

遗憾的是巴菲特并未透露他大量买入的是什么股票,希望我们能够在下个季度公告中看到巴菲特揭晓谜底。

(作者为汇添富基金公司首席投资理财师,本文仅为个人观点,并非任何劝诱或投资建议)


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2011年8月29日

中国势必成为美国资产大买家 China poised to be next big buyer of US hard assets

 

2009年6月,香港东亚银行(Bank of East Asia)宣布,拟将旗下加拿大业务70%的股权售予中国最大的国有银行中国工商银行(ICBC)。此笔交易顺利获得了加拿大当局的批准。今年1月,东亚银行又宣布,拟将美国业务(仅包括纽约和加州的13家分行) 80%的股权出售给工行。

不过,此笔交易还在等待审批,没人知道何时会有结果。它在美国外国投资委员会(Cfius)手里已经押了好几个月。外国投资委员会是一家负责审查外国收购交易的跨部门政府机构。(该交易也需要获得美联储(Federal Reserve)的批准。)

说起来,外国投资委员会根本就不应该审查此笔潜在交易。照例说,只有在涉及国家安全时,才需要该机构的审核。没人怀疑最终审查结果,人们认为此笔交易肯定会获得批准。中方存在异议的是过程。中国的银行家和投资者表示,中国的投资环境比美国更透明、更公正。美国外国投资委员会在运作中毫无透明度可言,坐实了这一指控。(美国财政部官员辩称,考虑到该委员会所处理信息的市场敏感性,保密是必要的。)

在中方看来,美国对收购硬资产的中国买家怀有敌意,这种感觉有弊无利。有朝一日,中国对金融资产的胃口将会彻底消失。只怕这一天会来得太早,而不是太晚。

根据Dealogic的数据,今年迄今为止,外国对华投资额为333亿美元,其中58亿美元来自美国。美国是第二大买家。然而,迄今为止中国在美国的投资,仅为大多数银行家所预期将很快达到的数额的一小部分,也仅为流入中国投资的一小部分。汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)的数据显示,在中国的对外收购中,美国排在第10位,总交易金额为9.58亿美元,其中,中海油(CNOOC)今年1月以5.7亿美元收购Chesapeake Energy页岩油气项目部分权益的交易,就占到半数以上。

由于认为美元将会贬值,而美国政府将大幅提高债券发行量,以通过通胀弥补其财政缺口,海外投资者可能会寻求购买更多的硬资产,并减少金融投资的数量。

与此同时,中国政府对于在美金融资产风险的担忧十分明显。中国已削减了对按揭机构房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)债券、以及企业债券和股票的购买量,将购买活动集中在美国国债一项。此外,中国毫不犹豫地表达了对于美国政策与政治的不悦。在本月初美国国债信用评级下调后,中国曾公开表态,指出美国“依靠举债就能摆脱自己制造的麻烦的时代已经结束了”。

中国仍在继续向其他国家出口商品,目前坐拥3.2万亿美元外汇储备。不过近来,美国印制美元并以此迫使全世界,尤其是中国,面临两难局面——要么将汇率维持在当前水平并推高通胀,要么让本币升值——的策略,最近似乎产生了效果。美国外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)的数据显示,美元在中国政府外汇资产中所占的份额已出现下降,从2005年的占总金额的71%,下降到了目前的60%。

过去几周,中国也已经加快人民币的升值步伐。随着这一趋势的继续,海外资产,尤其是在美国的资产,将变得比以往更加廉价。

对于中国所称美国机制透明度不及中国的说法,美国银行业者不以为然,他们指出,中国也有一家负责审批交易的机构,也会一样随意行事、无法预测。然而,债权国的看法总是比债务国更为重要。随着时间的推移,中国将会着眼于在美国进行更多并购,而美国必须要习惯这一点。要饭的不能挑三拣四的道理,无论对人还是对国家,都是成立的。

译者/何黎


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001040405


 

In June 2009, Hong Kong-based Bank of East Asia announced it was selling a 70 per cent stake in its Canadian operations to the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the largest of China’s state-owned banks. Approval from the Canadian authorities was not an issue. Then in January of this year, Bank of East Asia announced it was selling 80 per cent of its business in the US – which consists of a network of only 13 branches in New York and California – to ICBC.

That deal, however, is still awaiting approval, and nobody is certain what the timing is. For months the deal has been pending before the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), the interdepartmental government agency reviewing foreign acquisitions. (The deal still requires Federal Reserve approval as well.)

Arguably CFIUS should not be reviewing the potential purchase at all. It is supposed to vet deals only when there are national security issues. Nobody questions the ultimate outcome, since approval is expected. It is the process with which the Chinese are taking issue. Chinese bankers and investors say the investment landscape in China is more transparent and fair than that of the US, a charge that is given weight by CFIUS operating without any transparency at all. (Treasury officials cite the need for secrecy given the market-sensitive nature of the information the committee handles.)

The Chinese perception that the US is hostile to Chinese buyers of hard assets can only be a bad thing. At some point, which is likely to come sooner rather than later, China’s appetite for financial assets will diminish.

In the year to date, inbound investment into China totalled $33.3bn with $5.8bn of that coming from the US, according to data from Dealogic. The US was the second-largest acquirer. But, so far, outbound Chinese investment into the US is a fraction of what most bankers expect it will soon be or what investment into China is. The US was in 10th place for outward acquisitions from China, with a total deal value of $958m, of which more than half was accounted for by a single transaction, CNOOC’s $570m purchase of a stake in Chesapeake Energy shale oil and gas leases in January, according to Thomson Reuters.

Given the assumption that the dollar will depreciate and that the US government will issue far more debt to inflate its way out of its fiscal hole, investors from abroad are likely to seek to purchase more hard assets and fewer financial investments.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government’s concern with the riskiness of financial assets in the US is clear. It has already trimmed its purchases of the debt of the mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as corporate debt and shares, concentrating its purchases in Treasuries alone. Moreover, China has not hesitated to communicate its displeasure with US policies and politics. After the debt rating downgrade earlier this month, China was vocal in noting that the country could no longer “borrow its way out of messes of its own making”.

China continues to export to the rest of the world and today sits on $3,200bn in reserves. Recently though, the US strategy of printing dollars and presenting the world, most especially China, with a trade-off between maintaining their currencies at current levels and fuelling inflation or letting their currencies move up seems to be paying off. The dollar share of the Chinese government’s foreign assets is already dropping, down from 71 per cent of the total in 2005 to 60 per cent now, according to data from the Council on Foreign Relations.

In the past few weeks, China has also let its currency appreciate at a swifter rate. As that trend continues, assets abroad, especially in the US, will become ever more of a bargain.

US bankers dismiss Chinese claims that the US has a less transparent regime than China, pointing out that China too has a body that screens transactions and can be equally arbitrary and unpredictable. But the perceptions of a creditor nation will always matter more than those of a debtor one. Over time China will target more US acquisitions and the US will just have to get used to it. The fact that beggars cannot be choosers is true for nations as well as individuals.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001040405/en

巴菲特是最后一道防线? Buffett, US investor of last resort

1907年秋天,恐慌席卷了整个美国金融体系。股市市值缩水一半,银行挤兑风潮从一家机构蔓延至另一家,无论是健康的还是不健康的银行都未能幸免。但在位于纽约麦迪逊大道的摩根住宅的图书馆里,约翰•皮尔庞特•摩根(John Pierpoint Morgan)用自己的巨额财富和崇高声誉,成功集合纽约的银行家终结了此次危机。

一个世纪过去了,当代摩根将住所安置在大风肆虐的内布拉斯加州的奥马哈——年逾八旬的亿万富翁沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)已成为那些陷入困境的美国机构的最后投资者。巴菲特是一位信奉孤立主义的国会议员之子,其麾下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)是由众多公司组成的一个庞大的企业集团。

上周,巴菲特向美国银行(Bank of America)投资50亿美元,对这家受困机构表示了自己的认可——该银行正竭力试图说服投资者相信它已拨备了足够的资金,以应对在住宅泡沫期间发放的不良抵押贷款的遗留问题。

以狭义的金融标准来衡量,这笔交易对于美国银行而言代价极其高昂,但巴菲特的投资对该行股票产生了直接影响。投资消息传出后,该行股价上涨逾10%,而从年初到交易公布之前,其股价已几乎跌去一半,尽管包括对冲基金经理约翰•保尔森(John Paulson)在内的许多知名投资者都对其表示支持。

“在世人眼中,(巴菲特)比金融界大多数人都更有诚信。他是世界最富有的人之一,却把总部设在内布拉斯加州的奥马哈。他有许多决定都是正确的,他的既往表现证明了一切。三四年前,谁听说过约翰•保尔森啊?”说这话的比尔•艾萨克(Bill Isaac)曾担任为美国各银行提供存款担保的联邦存款保险公司(Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation)董事长。1991年,正是在他任内,沙特国王阿卜杜拉(King Abdullah)的侄子、阿尔瓦利德•本•塔拉尔王子( Prince Alwaleed bin Talal)向当时的花旗公司(Citicorp)注资5亿美元,帮助恢复了市场对该公司的信心。

当然还有其他财力雄厚的投资者,例如阿尔瓦利德王子或日本的三菱UFJ金融集团(Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group)。后者在金融危机期间购入摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley) 20%的股份。

但巴菲特的记录无人能比。1965年至2010年间,在他的领导下,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票的每股账面价值年均逾20%的速度增长。该公司早期股东的投资收益,要比标普500指数投资者高出78倍。

T2 Partners的惠特尼•蒂尔森(Whitney Tilson)表示:“巴菲特50年来一直在做尽职调查。该交易的达成只用了1个小时,但它是建立在过去50年经验的基础之上的。”T2 Partners也持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票。

现在能够扮演巴菲特角色的机构所剩无几。在1998年长期资本管理公司(Long-Term Capital Management) 濒临崩溃时,巴菲特给了其管理层一个小时的时间来决定,是接受还是拒绝他现金注资的条件。该公司拒绝了他的条件,最终倒闭了,但当时,高盛(Goldman Sachs)和汉克•格林伯格(Hank Greenberg)领导下的美国国际集团(AIG)也都有能力扮演救星。

但10年之后,无论是AIG还是高盛,都被迫在金融危机期间向巴菲特求助,不过,巴菲特认为AIG价格太过昂贵,最后只选择投资和救助后者。

巴菲特对伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的绝对控制,让他得以迅速采取行动。

劳伦斯•坎宁安(Lawrence Cunningham)表示:“巴菲特快速决策的能力十分出名。大多数有能力投入资金的公司,都必须经过各级管理层和委员会的层层批准。”坎宁安与巴菲特合著了《巴菲特致股东的信:美国股份公司教程》(The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America)一书。

投资于银行需要巴菲特摒弃他的根本理念——作为一个纯粹价值投资者,他不信任杠杆贷款和金融“噱头”。

巴菲特在1990年写给股东的信中表示:“银行业并不是我们的最爱。在这个行业中资产与股权的比例通常可达20倍,这意味着涉及很小一部分资产的差错就可能让股东权益发生重大亏损,而犯错是许多大银行的常态、而非特例。”

然而,巴菲特愿意以合适的价格投资于银行股。他在1989年和1990年以不到3亿美元的价格从富国银行(Wells Fargo)受够了10%的股份,这得益于他所谓的“混乱的银行股市场”。

巴菲特收购的是美国银行的优先股。这种股份也是巴菲特在投资其它高风险公司时使用的工具,比如对投资银行所罗门兄弟(Salomon Brothers)、美国航空(US Airways)和陷入困境的造纸企业 Champion等公司的投资。这么做虽然失去了普通股收益的上涨机会,但可以获得稳定的回报。

巴菲特的人气使得他可以扮演有别于华尔街机器的角色。巴菲特塑造了良好的公众形象,但那些了解他的人坚称,私底下的巴菲特与那些友善的公众评论并没有什么出入。

用简单的语言说明复杂问题的能力也让巴菲特获得了广泛的权威,比如他把衍生品称为“大规模杀伤性金融武器”。

艾萨克表示:“如果我在掌管FDIC或者是美联储主席,我将对巴菲特的所作所为感到非常高兴。这将逐渐增强人们对美银的信心。最终支撑整个(金融)体系并保持其完整的还是信心。”

但是在监管机构对巴菲特的及时干预感到欢欣鼓舞的同时,我们很难回避一个现实:巴菲特不可替代,但他已经80岁了。对于金融体系而言,仅仅依靠一个德高望重的老人的看法所传递出的信心是不够的。

译者/何黎


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001040393


By the autumn of 1907, panic gripped the US financial system. The stock market had halved in value and bank runs were spreading from one institution to another, wiping out both the healthy and the weak. Yet from the library of his Madison Avenue home, John Pierpont Morgan used his considerable wealth and reputation to successfully rally New York’s bankers to end the crisis.

A century on and the modern day Morgan resides in windswept Omaha, Nebraska. Warren Buffett, an octogenarian billionaire, son of an isolationist congressman and head of Berkshire Hathaway, a vast conglomerate of businesses, has somehow become the investor of last resort for troubled US institutions.

This week he invested $5bn in Bank of America, lending his stamp of approval to an institution struggling to convince investors that it had set enough capital aside to deal with the toxic legacy of mortgages extended during the days of the housing boom.

The deal was very expensive for the bank when judged on narrow financial criteria, but Mr Buffett’s investment had an immediate effect on BofA shares, which are up more than 10 per cent following news of the investment. The stock had almost halved from the start of the year, in spite of support from big-name investors such as hedge fund manager John Paulson.

“[Mr Buffett] is viewed as having more integrity than most people in the financial world. He’s one of the richest men in the world, and he sits in Omaha, Nebraska. He’s done a lot of things right, and his record speaks for himself. Whoever heard of Paulson before three or four years ago?” said Bill Isaac, former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which guarantees deposits at US banks. He was in that role in 1991 when Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, nephew of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, invested $500m to help restore confidence in what was then Citicorp.

There are other investors with deep pockets, such as Prince Alwaleed or Japan’s Mitsubishi UFG, which bought a 20 per cent stake in Morgan Stanley during the financial crisis.

But Mr Buffett boasts an unmatched record. Between 1965 and 2010 he has increased Berkshire’s book value per share by more than 20 per cent a year on average. An early shareholder in the company would have made 78 times more money than an investor in the S&P 500.

“Buffett has done 50 years of due diligence. The deal was done in an hour but it was based on 50 years of experience,” said Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners, which owns Berkshire stock.

There are precious few institutions left to play his role. When the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management was imploding in 1998, Mr Buffett gave its managers an hour to accept or reject his terms for a cash infusion. LTCM declined, and ultimately failed, but at the time Goldman Sachs and Hank Greenberg’s AIG were other potential saviours.

However, 10 years later both AIG and Goldman were forced to turn to Mr Buffett during the financial crisis, although he only chose to invest and help save the latter, finding AIG’s price too expensive.

His absolute control of Berkshire allows Mr Buffett to act swiftly.

“He is very well known for being able to make quick decisions. Most firms able to commit capital have layers of management and committees to go through,” said Lawrence Cunningham, co-author with Mr Buffett of The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America.

Investing in banks has required Mr Buffett to move away from his roots as a pure value investor suspicious of leverage and financial gimmickry.

“The banking business is no favourite of ours. When assets are twenty times equity – a common ratio in this industry – mistakes that involve only a small portion of assets can destroy a major portion of equity. And mistakes have been the rule rather than the exception at many major banks,” Mr Buffett wrote in his 1990 letter to shareholders.

However, he was prepared to invest in banks at the right price, obtaining 10 per cent of Wells Fargo for less than $300m in 1989 and 1990, helped by what he called “a chaotic market in bank stocks”.

Preferred stock, which he purchased in BofA, has also been a tool Mr Buffett has liked to use in other risky companies, sacrificing the upside of a normal shareholding for a secure return in companies such as Salomon Brothers, the investment bank, US Airways and Champion, a struggling paper business.

Mr Buffett’s popularity allows him to play a role as someone apart from the Wall Street machine. The public image is well crafted, but those who know him insist that there is no difference between the folksy public comments and the private man.

The ability to capture complex topics in simple comments, such that derivatives are “financial weapons of mass destruction”, has also leant Mr Buffett a popular authority.

“If I were running the FDIC or was chairman of the Fed, I’d be very happy Buffett did what he did. It will instil confidence in Bank of America. And in the end what underlies the whole system and keeps it together is confidence,” said Mr Isaac.

But while regulators may cheer a timely intervention, it is hard to escape the fact that Mr Buffett is both irreplaceable and 80. The financial system needs more than confidence in the opinion of one very well respected old man.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001040393/en

2011年8月27日

这个时候的思考与下个时候的回报

这个时候的思考与下个时候的回报

再谈谈这个问题。我认为,未来2年间,决定投资收益很大部分的,将来自于“对现在市场不看好、同时行业也确实遭遇着暂时性创伤、而自身其实是具有差异化优势的企业”的把握上(请注意这3条的关系是and,而不是or)。真正优秀的消费类、医药类、新兴产业类企业,还会有不低于实业增长率的投资收益,但是再寄希望于类似过去2年那样的“魔法时刻”是不现实的。

 

我不赞成对于市场偏好性方面的变化过于敏感,但是投资自有其规律性的一面。对于真正的未来优势型成长企业,最好的策略依然是持有,只不过对于投资收益率的期望需要降低,至少不要期望超越实业回报的收益率。而如果还有适当的仓位预留,或者是处于某种需要进行仓位的某种平衡的,可以思考下上述逻辑的可行性。

 

在进行类似的分析时,个人的建议是倒着去做:先看是否真的具有较为明显的差异化优势,再看其遭遇的困境是否是暂时性的,再看市场对其的评价和预期是否真的足够低。与其说这是一种对于市场偏好性的预测,其实不如说这是对于价值回复性以及投资经常性规律的尊重而已,其中逻辑并不难理解。


http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_5dfe996b0100ug15.html

2011年8月25日

巴菲特将投资美国银行

伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)周四表示,旗下的Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKA, BRKB)可能将会执行权证、认购7亿股美国银行(Bank of America Corp., BAC)股份,此举将使得Berkshire的持股比例略高于6%。

在其控股公司宣布向美国银行投资50亿美元后不久,巴菲特接受CNBC电话采访称,他是在周三兴起就投资事宜联系美国银行首席执行长Brian Moynihan的想法的。

Berkshire将获得50,000股美国银行优先股和可认购7亿股美国银行股票的权证。这批权证的执行价为每股7.14美元,可在交易完成后的10年内全部或者部分执行。

巴菲特50亿美元投资美银 Buffett invests $5bn in BofA

 

沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的伯克希尔-哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)同意向美国银行(BofA)投资50亿美元,以提振人们对该行的信心。这笔交易突显出巴菲特在危机时期稳定美国金融机构方面的作用。

美银股价今年下跌近40%,投资者担心该行陷入困境的抵押贷款业务可能拖垮其资产负债表,迫使其高管转变立场,筹集额外的股本。

周四,伯克希尔-哈撒韦投资的消息推动美银股价上涨。截止纽约早盘中段,美银股价上涨12%,至7.82美元,其它银行类股票也走高。

知情人士表示,巴菲特周三向美银首席执行官布赖恩•莫伊尼汉(Brian Moynihan)表示,他有意投资美银。尽管莫伊尼汉坚称,美银不需要额外资本,但他同意伯克希尔-哈撒韦此举可能安抚华尔街的紧张神经。

巴菲特表示:“美银是一家领导有方的强大公司,所以我打电话给莫伊尼汉,说我要投资。我被这家企业的盈利能力、被他们积极行动以克服挑战的事实所打动。”

美银账面上的巨额不良抵押贷款以及大量的法律问题,继续让人对其资本状况信心不足,加剧了美银可能需要筹集股本的猜测。此举成本高昂,将影响高管的可信度。

美银本周进行了回击,公开反驳发表在一些金融博客上的分析和谣言。美银坚决否认了外界的某些传言,即该行需要逾1000亿美元新资本,还驳斥了摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)将要发起紧急收购的猜测。

译者/君悦


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001040348


 

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has agreed to invest $5bn to shore up confidence in Bank of America, in a deal that underscores the billionaire’s role in stabilising US financial institutions in times of crisis.

BofA’s shares have tumbled almost 40 per cent this year amid concerns the US bank’s troubled mortgage business could overwhelm its balance sheet, forcing the lender’s executives to reverse course and raise additional equity.

News of the Berkshire deal pushed BofA’s stock up on Thursday. By mid-morning in New York, the shares were up 12 per cent at $7.82, with other banks also trading higher.

People familiar with the matter said that Mr Buffett on Wednesday signalled that he was interested in investing in the bank to Brian Moynihan, BofA’s chief executive. While Mr Moynihan maintained that the bank did not need extra capital, he agreed Berkshire’s move could ease Wall Street’s nerves.

“Bank of America is a strong, well-led company, and I called [Mr Moynihan] to tell him I wanted to invest in it. I am impressed with the profit-generating abilities of this franchise, and that they are acting aggressively to put their challenges behind them,” Mr Buffett said.

BofA’s vast book of troubled mortgages and a raft of legal issues have continued to drain confidence in its capital position, heightening speculation that it might need to raise equity – a costly move that would damage its executives’ credibility.

This week BofA hit back, publicly denying analysis and rumours published on a number of financial blogs. It strongly denied suggestions that the bank needed more than $100bn in new capital and dismissed speculation that JPMorgan Chase was set to mount an emergency takeover.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001040348/en

FT社评:苹果之魂乔布斯 Leader_Apple faces up to the loss of its core

 

史蒂夫•乔布斯(Steve Jobs)卸任首席执行官后,苹果公司(Apple)的命运将会如何?围绕这个问题,人们无疑将辩论一段时间。该公司是否将保住其在科技行业非同寻常的领导地位?凭借这种地位,该公司已接近成为全球市值最高的上市公司。

乔布斯对企业的全神贯注,以及他所取得的成功,几乎没有一个老板(甚至创始人)比得上。他不只是一位首席执行官,他一直像是一个舞台监督——运筹帷幄,带领苹果公司发展壮大。

以往的事实证明,有他在,苹果的命运就看好,没有他在,公司就会走向衰落。就创造力而言,所有的“高产期”肯定都是在乔布斯的领导之下——从上世纪80年代具有偶像级地位的Macintosh电脑,到近年迸发的iPod媒体播放器、iPhone智能手机和iPad平板电脑。他不在的时期,苹果未能推出任何令人难忘的产品。苹果的业绩也呈现出同样的规律。如今该公司赚得盆满钵满,与上世纪90年代几乎陷入破产的窘境形成了鲜明反差。

在某种程度上,聚焦于乔布斯带有误导性。近几年,他打造了一支世界级的管理团队。接班过程早已进行了精心规划,这也许是因为乔布斯曾经患病,导致他在2004年和2009年长时间病假。在他这两次病假期间,都是由他如今的继任者蒂姆•库克(Tim Cook)执掌公司,并赢得了人们的敬佩。

不过,对任何继任者来说,挑战在于接替乔布斯的特殊才能:他善于凝聚技术愿景与审美情趣,并藉此引领苹果的业务活动。关于他对细节的关注,坊间有很多的传闻。据说,有一次他要求对iPhone作出改进,因为他觉得在这款智能手机的屏幕上,谷歌(Google)标识中第二个黄色的“o”的色度不对。

乔布斯的威望,使他能够把苹果的资源押注于相对较少的几种产品,而这些产品往往是实验性的。投资者对他的判断力的信心,可被视为苹果“秘密武器”之一。相比之下,惠普(Hewlett-Packard)最近公布的激进战略却导致股东一片哗然。

虽然乔布斯的辞职信带有永别的语调,但苹果还没到在没有乔布斯的情况下面对生活的地步。只要董事会同意(这当然不会有问题),乔布斯将留任董事长。但是,当乔布斯与苹果的缘分走到尽头时,苹果将需要替换他给公司带来的关键“火花”。历史似乎表明,这只能来自另一个天才,而不是一支管理团队,无论这个团队多么富有才华。

译者/和风


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001040351


 

The debate will no doubt rage for some time about how Apple will fare now Steve Jobs has stepped down as chief executive. Will the group retain its extraordinary leadership in the technology sphere – one that has carried it to the brink of becoming the world’s most valuable listed company?

Few bosses – even founders – have defined their companies with quite the intensity that Mr Jobs brought to the task, nor enjoyed the same success. More than a chief executive, he has been a sort of impresario – the presiding intelligence behind Apple’s growth.

The company’s fortunes have waxed with his presence and waned without him. Creatively, all of the fecund periods have certainly been under Mr Jobs’ leadership – from the development of the iconic Macintosh in the 1980s to the recent flowering of iPod, iPhone and iPad. It is hard to think of anything memorable in his absence. And it has been the same with Apple’s finances. Contrast its current prosperity with the position in the 1990s, when it nearly collapsed into bankruptcy.

To some extent, the focus on Mr Jobs is deceptive. In recent years, he has built a world-beating management team. The succession process has been well planned – perhaps due to Mr Jobs’ past illnesses, which led to him taking extended leave of absence in 2004 and 2009. His replacement, Tim Cook, ran the company on both occasions and is well regarded.

The challenge for any successor though is to replace Mr Jobs’ special talent; his ability to bring a technological vision and aesthetic sensibility to bear on Apple’s activities. Stories abound about his attention to detail. He once demanded changes to the iPhone because he felt the second “o” in Google’s logo was the wrong shade of yellow on the screen.

Mr Jobs’ authority allowed him to bet Apple’s resources on a relatively small number of often experimental products. Investors’ confidence in his judgment can be seen as one of Apple’s secret weapons. Compare it with Hewlett-Packard, where a radical strategy has led to shareholder uproar.

Apple does not yet have to confront life without Mr Jobs, in spite of the elegiac tone of his resignation letter. He will stay on as chairman as long as the board consents, which it surely will. But when the link is finally broken, Apple will need to replace the vital spark that he has brought to its affairs. And history suggests that this can only come from another individual, not a management team, however talented.


http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001040351/en

比亚迪汽车销量下滑 扩张计划受阻 BYD Expansion Threatened

亚迪传统汽油动力汽车的销量大幅下滑,可能损害其电动汽车和其他"绿色"技术的宏大扩张计划,给巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在该公司的投资带来更多质疑。巴菲特在比亚迪投资的价值曾经大幅飙升,但过去一年出现暴跌。

周二,投资者抛售比亚迪在香港上市的股票,此前该公司于周一晚间披露说,根据中国的会计标准,公司上半年利润同比下滑近90%,降至人民币2.7536亿元(合4,300万美元)。位于深圳的比亚迪表示,当季收益可能将下滑类似的幅度。上半年比亚迪汽车销量下滑23%,至220,131辆。汽车销售占了比亚迪收入的近一半。

比亚迪在香港上市的股票价格跌了14.3%,至每股16.18港元(合2.07美元),为2009年4月以来的最低收盘价,较2009年10月创下的最高收盘价每股85.50港元跌了86%。

Reuters
在4月份的上海车展上,一位男子站在一辆比亚迪电动汽车前。
2008年比亚迪股价飙升时,巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)的子公司中美能源控股公司(MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co.)收购了比亚迪10%的股权,此举被誉为投资大师巴菲特凭藉远见卓识取得的又一项成功,并将使中美能源控股当时的董事长索科尔(David Sokol)和投资经理李路获益匪浅。李路最早使比亚迪获得了伯克希尔副董事长芒格(Charlie Munger)的注意。索科尔曾是最有希望接巴菲特班的人,据说李路当时也在争取有朝一日能接手巴菲特的部分投资职责。李路去年退出竞争,索科尔则在今年早些时候辞职。

索科尔曾是比亚迪的董事会成员。比亚迪发言人说,索科尔尚未被替换。

比亚迪目前的股价仍比中美能源控股购股时支付的每股8港元高出约一倍,但如今的市值只有36亿美元,较最高时的192亿美元大大缩水。

股价暴跌的原因是,投资者担心比亚迪在汽油动力汽车上的收入和利润出现大幅下滑会损害其业务模式,而巴菲特的公司投资比亚迪看重的正是这一模式:用出售比亚迪生产的传统汽车和手机电池所获收入,来资助该公司对电动汽车、太阳能电池板和其他绿色技术成本高昂的研发。这些技术可能拥有光明未来。

比亚迪周一在最新的收益报告中说,上半年研发支出同比减少13%,至人民币6.12亿元,而此前多年比亚迪一直大幅扩大研发支出,以便支持电动汽车和其他绿色技术产品。这一消息加剧了投资者的不安。

汽车咨询公司Automotive Foresight驻上海负责人张豫(Yale Zhang)说,比亚迪高管需要保持在新能源汽车领域的投资,因为正是绿色的形像使比亚迪不同一般公司,但他们没有剩下足够的资金用于普通汽油动力汽车的开发。

自去年夏季以来,比亚迪的汽车销售一直在下滑,部分原因是外国公司及其在中国当地的合作伙伴在华推出了经济型汽车,这给比亚迪带来了竞争,比如通用汽车(General Motors Co.)的雪佛兰赛欧(Sail)紧凑型轿车。比亚迪的销售还因中国政府取消小排量汽车购置税优惠政策的决定而受到冲击。2009年和2010年初,汽车购置税优惠政策推动了比亚迪汽车销售的增长。

巴菲特未立即回复置评请求。比亚迪一位发言人拒绝就研发开支的问题具体置评。

但比亚迪董事长王传福周二在香港说,比亚迪希望通过在下半年推出更多新车型来重振汽车销量。

王传福说,我们一直在开发更高端的新车型以提振销量,我相信我们下半年的销售会比上半年好。他拒绝透露全年销售目标。

王传福于1995年参与创建了比亚迪,公司最初主要制造手机电池。2003年收购西安一家小型汽车制造商后,比亚迪开始生产汽车,并获得初步成功。2009年,比亚迪在中国的汽车销量达到44.8万辆,是2008年17.09万辆的两倍多,令比亚迪成为中国最大的私营汽车制造商之一。

王传福打入电动汽车市场的高调计划吸引了伯克希尔哈撒韦及其他投资者的注意。王传福将转战电动汽车看做大步超越更知名全球对手的机会,方法是利用比亚迪在手机电池业务中已经开发的技术。

去年,其他中国本土汽车制造商在开发汽油动力汽车方面的投入纷纷超过比亚迪。面对这些公司的竞争,比亚迪传统的汽车业务受到打击。比亚迪去年的汽车销量为519,806辆,增幅仅为16%,按中国的标准来看属于缓慢增长,并且未达到起初预期的80万辆。

今年1月接受采访时,王传福提到了一项改革战略,他说这项战略会恢复比亚迪的销售增长。王传福承诺将花更多时间开发更具竞争力的车型,并会将专卖店数量从2010年年底的约1,000家削减5%,淘汰经验不足的专卖店。他说,比亚迪在预测需求方面会做得更好,并会更注重"销售质量"而非"痴迷于市场份额"。

这些措施的成果尚未显现。

包括Automotive Foresight的张豫在内的许多行业观察人士认为,比亚迪在其准备大展宏图的绿色科技领域拥有相当好的技术。比亚迪说,公司在未来几年仍计划制造广泛供应中美私人购车者的纯电动汽车e6。比亚迪还计划于2013年以前在中国再推出一款纯电动汽车,该公司从去年起一直在与德国戴姆勒(Daimler AG)联合开发这款车。戴姆勒发言人说,项目已经走上正轨。

比亚迪还在采取行动提高大型电量储存系统(即储能电站)的销量,该系统是基于比亚迪为私人家庭和企业服务的锂离子电池技术开发的。储能电站会在晚上用电低谷且电价较低时充电储能,然后在白天使用,从而为私人用户和企业节省能源成本。比亚迪希望该业务能在日本这样的市场起步。日本在今年早些时候发生核事故后面临电力短缺。

Norihiko Shirouzu / Joanne Chiu

(更新完成)

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


A sharp fall in sales of conventional gasoline cars at BYD Co. is threatening to undercut its ambitious expansion plans for electric cars and other 'green' technologies, throwing further doubt on a once-soaring investment by Warren Buffett in the Chinese company that has plunged in the last year.

Investors dumped BYD's Hong Kong-listed shares Tuesday following its disclosure late Monday that its first-half profit fell nearly 90% from a year earlier to 275.36 million yuan ($43 million), based on Chinese accounting standards. The Shenzhen-based company indicated earnings in the current quarter would fall by a similar amount. Its car sales, which account for nearly half its revenue, fell 23% in the first half of the year to 220,131 cars.

BYD's share price fell 14.3% in Hong Kong trading to 16.18 Hong Kong dollars ($2.07)─the lowest finish since April 2009 and down 86% from BYD's highest closing price of HK$85.50 in October 2009.

When BYD's shares were soaring, the purchase of 10% of the company in 2008 by MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., a unit of Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc., was hailed as another visionary triumph for the investment giant and boons to then-MidAmerican Chairman David Sokol and Li Lu, the money manager who originally brought BYD to the attention of Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger. Mr. Sokol was once a leading contender to replace Mr. Buffett, and Mr. Li was said to be in the running to take over some of Mr. Buffett's investment duties. Mr. Li took himself out of the running last year, and Mr. Sokol resigned earlier this year.

Mr. Sokol, who held a seat on BYD's board, hasn't yet been replaced, a BYD spokeswoman said.

BYD's shares still trade around twice the HK$8 price that MidAmerican paid, but its stake today is worth $3.6 billion, down from $19.2 billion at its peak.

Behind the plunging share price is fear that the big fall in revenue and profit from gasoline-fueled cars is damaging the BYD business model in which Mr. Buffett's company invested: using sales of traditional cars and of the cellphone batteries BYD makes to help finance expensive research and development of electric cars, solar panels and other green technologies that have a potentially bright future.

Fueling that anxiety, BYD in its latest earnings report Monday said it cut spending on R&D in the first half of the year by 13% from a year earlier to 612 million yuan─following years of aggressive growth in such spending to support electric-car and other green-tech products.

BYD executives 'need to keep investing in new-energy vehicles because it is that green image that differentiates the company, but they don't have enough money left for regular gasoline-car development,' says Yale Zhang, head of automotive consulting company Automotive Foresight in Shanghai.

BYD's car sales have been slipping since last summer in part because of competition from affordable cars launched in China by foreign companies and their local partners, such as General Motors Co.'s Chevy Sail compact car. BYD's sales also suffered from the Chinese government's decision to scrap purchase incentives for small cars that boosted its sales significantly in 2009 and early 2010.

Mr. Buffett didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. A BYD spokeswoman declined to comment specifically on concerns about R&D spending.

But BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu said Tuesday in Hong Kong that BYD hopes to revive car sales by launching more new models in the second half of this year.

'We have been developing higher-end new-car models in a bid to boost sales, and I am hopeful our sales in the second half would be better than that of the first half,' Mr. Wang said. He declined to provide a full-year sales target.

Mr. Wang co-founded BYD in 1995, initially focusing on making batteries for cell phones. It began making cars in 2003 when it acquired a small auto maker in Xian, and it found early success. In 2009, its car sales in China more than doubled to 448,000 vehicles, from 170,900 in 2008, making it one of China's biggest privately owned auto makers.

It was Mr. Wang's high-profile plans to expand into electric vehicles that drew the attention of Berkshire Hathaway and other investors. Mr. Wang saw the shift toward electric cars as a chance to leapfrog more established global rivals, by leveraging the technology his company had developed in its cellphone-battery business.

Last year, BYD's traditional car business sputtered amid competition from other home-grown Chinese auto makers that outspent BYD developing gasoline-fueled models. BYD's sales rose just 16% to 519,806 vehicles, a slow pace by China standards and far short of the 800,000 vehicles it had initially projected.

In an interview in January this year, Mr. Wang outlined a retooled strategy that he said would rejuvenate growth. Mr. Wang pledged to take more time to develop more competitive cars and cut the number of sales outlets by 5% from roughly 1,000 at the end of 2010 to weed out inexperienced stores. He said BYD would do better forecasting demand and focus more on 'quality of sales' rather than 'obsessing on market share.'

Those efforts have yet to show results.

Many industry observers, including Mr. Zhang of Automotive Foresight, believe BYD does have decent technology for its green ambitions.The company says it still plans to make an all-electric car called the e6 widely available to private buyers in China and the U.S. over the next couple of years. BYD is also expected to launch by 2013 in China another all-electric car it has been developing jointly with Germany's Daimler AG since last year. A Daimler spokeswoman said that project 'is on track.'

BYD is also making moves to increase sales of large-scale electric-power storage systems based on its lithium-ion battery technology for private households and businesses. Those devices are for storing power at night when electricity is abundant and cheap and using it during the day as a way to save energy cost for private buyers and businesses. The company is hoping for the business to take off in a market like Japan that is facing power shortages in the wake of the nuclear accident there earlier this year.

Norihiko Shirouzu / Joanne Chiu

巴菲特喜爱的比亚迪成了烫手山芋? Has Warren Buffett's Chinese Winner Turned Into a Stinker?

伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)最喜爱的消遣或投资之一中国汽车和电池制造商比亚迪股份有限公司(BYD)周二上午股价暴跌,此前该公司发布了一份令人失望的收益报告。

Bloomberg News
在一度被视为巴菲特可能接班人的李路帮助下,这位“奥马哈先知”和比亚迪相识了。2008年,巴菲特向比亚迪投资。一开始,比亚迪成绩斐然,股价大涨了五倍多。

不过近来,发布屡屡令人失望的盈利数据对比亚迪来说似乎已成了稀松平常的事。今年刚入夏时,比亚迪的股价就曾在该公司发布了令人扫兴的财报后狂跌不止。

据巴菲特旗下伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的备案资料显示,该公司曾以每股约1.03美元的价格收购了比亚迪2.25亿股股票,略低于后者全部股票数的10%。甚至在比亚迪在香港上市股票去年大跌64%后,巴菲特所持比亚迪股票的价值依然是他收购价的两倍多,约合4.67亿美元。

尽管如此,我们还是想知道,巴菲特是否后悔在今年春天伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司的年会上把比亚迪放在如此引人注目的位置上。该公司年会被称为“资本家的伍德斯托克音乐节”(Woodstock for Capitalists),而今年的年会主题是“飞机、火车和汽车”。

在年会的出席证、议程表和海报上都印有这样一个图案:一辆比亚迪产的汽车与巴菲特旗下飞机租赁公司NetJets的一架喷气式飞机以及巴菲特旗下铁路运营商BNSF的一列火车并肩而立。

Shira Ovide


One of Warren Buffett's favored playthings/investments, Chinese car-and-battery maker BYD, is getting crushed this morning after a disappointing earnings report.

Li Lu, the man once seen as possible successor to Buffett, helped introduce the Oracle of Omaha to BYD. Buffett invested in BYD in 2008, and it looked at first like a winner, climbing more than six-fold.

Lately, though, earnings disappointments seem to have become commonplace for BYD. Earlier this summer, BYD shares plunged after a disappointing earnings report.

Buffett's company bought 225 million shares of BYD, or just under 10% of the company's stock, at a price of about $1.03 a pop, according to Berkshire regulatory filings. Even after a 64% drop in BYD's stock price in Hong Kong in the last year, Buffett's stake in BYD is still worth more than twice what he paid, or about $467 million.

Still, we wonder if Buffett is regretting putting BYD in a favorable spotlight at this spring's annual meeting of Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. The theme of this year's Berkshire meeting, the Woodstock for Capitalists, was 'Planes, Trains and Automobiles.'

An image of a BYD-made car, along with a jet from Buffett-owned NetJets and a train from Buffett-owned railroad BNSF, were featured on ID badges, programs and placards.

Shira Ovide

观点:答巴菲特与奥巴马的加税建议 My Response To Buffett And Obama

HARVEY GOLUB

些年来,我的收入的很大一部分都上缴给联邦、州以及我所生活的这个地方的行政机构了。奥巴马总统认为我并不需要这些年来我缴税之后剩下的全部钱财,而且我应该给我的子孙们少留一些钱而多给他一些钱让他想怎么花就怎么花,他的这些决策令我深为痛恨。而且我还痛恨巴菲特和其他一些人,他们为自己积累了巨额财富,却认为我"被溺爱"了,因为他们相信他们应该缴更多的税。我当然不会因为各级政府没有征收更高的所得税而感到"被溺爱"。不管怎么说,这些钱都是我赚来的。

我今年已经72岁了,我能料到的,就是我得把我积累下来的财富的很大一部分作为遗产税上缴给联邦政府,而且还要根据彼时我所在州的要求,向州政府缴纳遗产税。我今年的收入的80%-90%要用来缴纳联邦所得税、社保医疗税和联邦遗产税及州遗产税,难道这还不够吗?

其他人如果想的话可以多缴一些税。他们可以自愿地开出支票,或者他们可以主张他们给基金会的捐赠也应该以税后收入计,不得享受所得税抵减待遇。如果不允许他们设立基金会来规避资本利得税和遗产税的话,他们缴的税也会更多。

Bloomberg News
关于这次争论,最让我感到心烦意乱的是另外两件事,其一是征税手段不公平,其二是我与政府之间的隐性社会契约──税收应该有效且高效地用于满足国家一般需求之目的──遭到了违反。在说我贪婪之前,请确保你们已经做好这两方面的工作。

今天,最高收入群体(即年收入达到100万美元及以上的那25万人)缴纳的所得税占全部所得税的20%,而年收入超过20万美元的占人口总数3%的那部分人缴纳的所得税占全部所得税的比例几乎达到了一半。而差不多一半的报税人则根本不必缴纳所得税。显然,他们赚得少,也应该少缴税。但他们多少也应该交一点税,这样政府花出去的钱也跟他们多少有一点关系。

此外,税收制度极其复杂,充斥着对不同的利益群体和行业人员的各种优惠,而这些优惠全都是那些想要保住手里的权力的政客们同意授予的。住房抵押贷款利率抵减对私营房地产市场构成了支撑,但却损害了租房者的利益。为了支持加入了工会的工人和政府工作人员,他们的额外薪酬则完全不必缴税,而这损害了那些用自己的税后收入买保险的那些人的利益。捐给慈善机构的钱可以享受抵减所得税待遇,而赠给子孙的钱则不能。上面只是列出了几个例子而已,所有这些都是不公平的。

政府有义务把我们的税款用到那些真正有用的项目之上。但这项基础工作他们却并没有做好。我们真的需要几十个绩效和结果都没法考评的雇员再培训计划吗?我们真的需要在能源供应尚且充足的时候把钱花在太阳电池板、风力发电厂和电动汽车上吗?我们真的需要那些提高了我们购买的东西的价格从而给经济带来了约两万亿美元负担的条例吗?我们真的需要向国内的糖农和乙醇生产商提供补贴吗?

为什么要求公共项目支付高于市场水平的劳动力成本?为什么要在没有人会乘坐的火车上花掉数十亿美元?为什么要在没人居住的地方保留邮局?为什么要对那些紧邻大型机场的小型社区机场提供补助?为什么要向政府工作人员支付高于市场水平的薪资和大笔福利?我们真的需要一个能源部或是教育部吗?

我想说的是:在你们"要求"我还有其他人多缴一些税的时候,请你们首先更加公正地征收已有的每年2.2万亿美元的税款,并且更加明智地加以使用。这样你们需要我缴的钱就会少一些了。


(编者注:戈卢布(HARVEY GOLUB)是美国运通公司前董事会主席兼首席执行长,目前在美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)执行委员会任职。)

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


HARVEY GOLUB

Over the years, I have paid a significant portion of my income to the various federal, state and local jurisdictions in which I have lived, and I deeply resent that President Obama has decided that I don't need all the money I've not paid in taxes over the years, or that I should leave less for my children and grandchildren and give more to him to spend as he thinks fit. I also resent that Warren Buffett and others who have created massive wealth for themselves think I'm 'coddled' because they believe they should pay more in taxes. I certainly don't feel 'coddled' because these various governments have not imposed a higher income tax. After all, I did earn it.

Now that I'm 72 years old, I can look forward to paying a significant portion of my accumulated wealth in estate taxes to the federal government and, depending on the state I live in at the time, to that state government as well. Of my current income this year, I expect to pay 80%-90% in federal income taxes, state income taxes, Social Security and Medicare taxes, and federal and state estate taxes. Isn't that enough?

Others could pay higher taxes if they choose. They could voluntarily write a check or they could advocate that their gifts to foundations should be made with after-tax dollars and not be deductible. They could also pay higher taxes if they were not allowed to set up foundations to avoid capital gains and estate taxes.

What gets me most upset is two other things about this argument: the unfair way taxes are collected, and the violation of the implicit social contract between me and my government that my taxes will be spent─effectively and efficiently─on purposes that support the general needs of the country. Before you call me greedy, make sure you operate fairly on both fronts.

Today, top earners─the 250,000 people who earn $1 million or more─pay 20% of all income taxes, and the 3% who earn more than $200,000 pay almost half. Almost half of all filers pay no income taxes at all. Clearly they earn less and should pay less. But they should pay something and have a stake in our government spending their money too.

In addition, the extraordinarily complex tax code is replete with favors to various interest groups and industries, favors granted by politicians seeking to retain power. Mortgage interest deductions support the private housing industry at the expense of renters. Generous fringe benefits are not taxed at all, in order to support union and government workers at the expense of people who buy their own insurance with after-tax dollars. Gifts to charities are deductible but gifts to grandchildren are not. That's just a short list, and all of it is unfair.

Governments have an obligation to spend our tax money on programs that work. They fail at this fundamental task. Do we really need dozens of retraining programs with no measure of performance or results? Do we really need to spend money on solar panels, windmills and battery-operated cars when we have ample energy supplies in this country? Do we really need all the regulations that put an estimated $2 trillion burden on our economy by raising the price of things we buy? Do we really need subsidies for domestic sugar farmers and ethanol producers?

Why do we require that public projects pay above-market labor costs? Why do we spend billions on trains that no one will ride? Why do we keep post offices open in places no one lives? Why do we subsidize small airports in communities close to larger ones? Why do we pay government workers above-market rates and outlandish benefits? Do we really need an energy department or an education department at all?

Here's my message: Before you 'ask' for more tax money from me and others, raise the $2.2 trillion you already collect each year more fairly and spend it more wisely. Then you'll need less of my money.

(Mr. Golub, a former chairman and CEO of American Express, currently serves on the executive committee of the American Enterprise Institute. )

乔布斯辞职 亚洲科技公司受影响 Asia Tech Companies Gird for Changes at Apple

布斯(Steve Jobs)从苹果公司(Apple Inc.)辞职所产生的一些重要影响可能会波及亚洲,这里不仅有苹果的主要供应商,还有很多其最强大的竞争对手。

分析人士说,台湾胜华科技(Wintek Corp.)和鸿海精密工业股份有限公司(Hon Hai Precision Industry Co.)等供应商面临的最大问题可能是,苹果这位颇具创造力的大师的离任是否会逐渐削弱整个新产品单元的元气。仅苹果iPhone和iPad这两款产品就曾为整个智能手机和平板电脑业提供了根本性的转变契机。

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
图片:乔布斯的这些年
对于台湾智能手机生产商宏达国际电子股份有限公司(HTC Corp.)和韩国三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)及LG电子(LG Electronics Co.)等竞争对手来说,苹果在营销方面的任何退步都可能给它们带来机遇。不过,苹果的零部件销售商有些正是其竞争对手。三星电子为iPad、iPhone和iPod Touch提供芯片,LG电子的子公司LG Display Co.也是iPad的供应商。

研究咨询机构上海睿析科技(RedTech Advisors)的董事总经理克伦德尼(Michael Clendenin)说,苹果可能不会像以前那么有创新精神,而创新无疑是目前信息科技产业所需的。他说,其它公司以前也曾致力于个人平板电脑的研发,但乔布斯才是真正提供了适当软件和服务的人,这两者糅合在一起,其意义远超过一台机器;IT业其它公司的问题是它们过于关注机器本身,忽略了内容。

苹果合同制造商的股价周四出现了下跌。在中国内地组装苹果iPhone和iPad的鸿海精密下跌了4.6%。触摸屏供应商胜华科技下跌了6.9%,为苹果产品制造金属外壳的台湾可成科技(Catcher Technology Co.)下跌了6.8%。

苹果竞争对手的股价有所上涨,原因是投资者认为苹果CEO的更迭可能会转移公司注意力。苹果在智能手机领域的主要对手宏达国际上涨了1.4%,而三星电子和LG电子分别上涨了2.4%和1.3%。

Reuters
图片:乔布斯苹果帝国十年扩张路
尽管投资者作出了反应,但分析师和亚洲科技公司高管说,他们预计不会立即出现有关股票的冲击波,因为乔布斯将继续任苹果董事长,而且苹果明年的产品计划也已制定完毕。亚洲供应商上周说,苹果已开始为明年发布第三代iPad订购零部件。

业内人士还说,没有什么理由认为苹果将会重组其生产商关系。乔布斯钦点CEO继承人、首席运营长库克(Tim Cook),在建立和管理苹果供应商关系的过程中功不可没。

三星证券(Samsung Securities)分析师Birdy Lu说,苹果是一家成熟的公司;我相信乔布斯将会继续参与关键决策;乔布斯与库克的组合应当有助于苹果维持竞争优势。

苹果近些年的增长给它的供应商带来了实惠。又名"富士康"(Foxconn)的鸿海是世界最大的电子产品代工商,苹果是其最大的客户之一。鸿海说,它相信苹果将会继续茁壮成长。这家台湾公司说,鸿海和苹果是长期合作伙伴,我们相信,虽有这次管理层变动,我们将来的关系将会更加紧密。

鸿海董事长郭台铭(Terry Gou)曾与库克长期密切共事。去年鸿海深圳园区发生员工自杀事件、引起国际关注之后,率领苹果团队前往中国与郭台铭商量补救措施的,正是库克本人。

胜华科技去年的收入接近于上一年的三倍,这主要得益于iPhone等设备所用触摸屏的需求。该公司拒绝置评。可成科技也拒绝置评。

亚洲也已经成为苹果一个越来越重要的市场,如果乔布斯离任带来什么变化,那么就有可能影响到出售iPhone的亚洲手机运营商。

但库克曾参与苹果与中国移动有限公司(China Mobile Ltd.)等亚洲关键潜在合作伙伴的谈判,而且投资者似乎也并不担心。在中国内地出售iPhone的中国联合网络通信(香港)股份有限公司(China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd.),周四股价上涨了12%;iPhone和iPad在日本的唯一运营商软银股份有限公司(Softbank Corp.),股价上涨了1.7%。

东海东京调查中心(Tokai Tokyo Research Center)分析师Yusuke Tsunoda说,苹果产品推动了软银近年的增长,两家公司形成关系的过程中,软银CEO孙正义(Masayoshi Son)与乔布斯之间的私人关系可能发挥了重要作用。他说,苹果可能会决定像在美国一样,也在日本使用多家运营商,这将不利于软银。软银拒绝置评。

Loretta Chao / Lorraine Luk

(更新完成)

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


Some of the biggest effects of Steve Jobs's resignation at Apple Inc. are likely to be felt in Asia─home not only to the company's main suppliers but to many of its biggest competitors as well.

Analysts say the biggest question for suppliers, such as Taiwan's Wintek Corp. and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., is likely to be whether the departure of Apple's creative maestro saps the energy that has produced whole new product segments. Apple's iPhone and iPad, to name just two products, essentially were catalysts for the entire smartphone and tablet industries.

And for competitors─for example, Taiwan's HTC Corp. and South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. and LG Electronics Co.─any falloff in Apple's marketing prowess could spell opportunity. Some of those same companies also sell Apple parts, however. Samsung has provided chips for the iPad, iPhone and iPod Touch, and the LG Display Co. unit of LG is an iPad supplier.

There is 'risk that [Apple] won't be as innovative as before,' and 'innovation these days is definitely what the [information technology] industry needs,' said Michael Clendenin, managing director of RedTech Advisors in Shanghai. Other companies had worked on tablet PCs before, 'but it was really Steve Jobs that came up with the right kind of software and services that turned that into much more than a machine,' Mr. Clendenin said. 'The problem with [the rest of] the IT industry is they focus too much on the machine and not the content.'

Shares of contract manufacturers fell Thursday. Shares of Hon Hai, which assembles Apple's iPhones and iPads in China, dropped 4.6%. Shares of touch-screen supplier Wintek's fell 6.9%, and those of Taiwan-based Catcher Technology Co., which makes metal casings for Apple, fell 6.8%.

Competitors' stocks rose on hopes that a leadership change might distract the U.S. company. Shares in HTC, a leading rival in smartphones, rose 1.4%, while Samsung's rose 2.4%. LG Electronics's stock gained 1.3%.

Investors reactions, notwithstanding, analysts and executives at Asian technology companies said they don't anticipate immediate shock waves since Mr. Jobs is staying on as chairman and because Apple's product plans are firmly established for the next year. Asian suppliers said last week, for example, that Apple has started ordering parts for a third generation of iPads for release next year.

People in the industry also said there is little reason to think Apple will shake up its manufacturing ties. Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook, Mr. Jobs's hand-picked successor as chief executive, is the person credited with building and managing Apple's supplier relationships.

Apple is a well-established company,' said Samsung Securities analyst Birdy Lu. 'I believe [Mr. Jobs] will still be involved in key decisions.' The combination of Mr. Jobs and Mr. Cook 'should help Apple maintain its competitive edge.'

Apple's growth in recent years has been a boon to its suppliers. Hon Hai, also known as Foxconn, is the world's largest contract manufacturer of electronics and counts Apple as one of its biggest clients. Hon Hai said it believes Apple will continue to thrive. 'Hon Hai and Apple are long-time partners. We believe our relationship will get closer in the future in spite of the management change,' the Taiwan company said.

Hon Hai Chairman Terry Gou long has worked closely with Mr. Cook. After employee suicides last year at Hon Hai's expansive facility in Shenzhen, China, drew international attention, it was Mr. Cook who led an Apple team to China to discuss remedies with Mr. Gou.

Wintek─whose revenue nearly tripled last year largely because of demand for its touch screens, which are used on iPhones and other devices─declined to comment. Catcher also declined to comment.

Asia also has become an increasingly important market for Apple, and any changes after Mr. Jobs's departure could affect Asian cellphone carriers that offer the iPhone.

Mr. Cook has been involved in negotiations with key potential partners in Asia, such as China Mobile Ltd., however, and investors didn't seem concerned. Shares of China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd., which sells the iPhone in China, gained 12% Thursday, and shares in Softbank Corp., the only carrier of the iPhone and iPad products in Japan, edged up 1.7%.

'Apple's products fueled Softbank's growth in recent years and personal ties between [Softbank CEO] Masayoshi Son and Steve Jobs may have played a major role in shaping the relationship between the two companies,' said Yusuke Tsunoda, an analyst for Tokai Tokyo Research Center. He said Apple could decide to use multiple carriers in Japan, as the company does in the U.S., which would be a negative development for Softbank. Softbank declined to comment.

Loretta Chao / Lorraine Luk

对分外工作大胆说不! Not My Job!

:我老板是个挺强势的律师,现在我跟他之间有一点别扭,不知道该怎么办。这几个星期他一直让我做一些根本不属于我职责范围的事情,比如帮他到夏令营营地接孩子,然后在办公室照看孩子直到下班,要么就是替他到干洗店取衣服。我心里清楚,等他夫人从外地回来,一切就会恢复正常,但我还是觉得很不舒服,要知道我在公司的职位是前台,而现在却还得当个人助理。

──纽约州纽约市一位读者

Getty Images
答:你老板虽然还算不上是今年夏季的头号坏老板,但他显然是在占你的便宜。更糟糕的是:你在纵容他。

快让他住手!

不要总答应他的过分要求(顺便说一下,这些要求确实过分),这可能对你的职业前途不利。

丹佛大学(University of Denver)丹尼尔斯商学院(Daniels College of Business)院长克莉丝汀口里奥丹(Christine Riordan) 曾研究过逾1500人在20年中的职业经历。她发现太随和、太好说话的员工虽然试图借此给上司留下好印象,但结果往往不尽人意。

她指出,"太好说话会阻碍你的职业发展,影响你的领导效率。"她的研究还显示,太讨人喜欢、太信任别人的员工薪资较低,升职较慢。她说,"凡事都要有度。"

你说你老板夫人回来后"一切就会恢复正常",其实这和指望你老板平等对待你一样,可能性都不是很大。

就算老板不再让你去接小孩或者去干洗店取衣服,也会支使你做别的事情。你成了肖恩口安克尔(Shawn Achor) 所说的"享受不到平等婚姻好处的办公室妻子"。肖恩口安克尔是一名积极心理学专家,著有《幸福感助你成功》(The Happiness Advantage)一书。

现在该划定界限了。

里奥丹建议首先跟老板坦诚沟通一下,说说你对自己岗位、职责和工作任务的设想。这可以帮助你确定哪些事情属于你的正常工作范围。她说,"不要怕问老板问题,也可以大胆要求老板解释为什么要给你安排某些任务。"

了解老板的想法会对你大有帮助,让你能够在自己的前途问题上做出明智决定。

你的选择无外乎有三种。你可以站起来捍卫自己的权益,让老板知道哪些事你愿意做,哪些事你不愿做;你也可以调整心态,让自己打心眼里觉得做分外的事情很开心,并一直这样做下去;要么你可以辞职,另找份工作。

不管你选择什么,能做出自己的选择就很可贵。工作就是工作,别做一只任人捏的软柿子。

Elizabeth Garone

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


Q: I'm in a bit of an awkward situation with my boss who is a high-powered attorney and I'm not sure what to do. For the past few weeks, he has been asking me to do things that are in no way part of my job description, like picking up his kids at camp and then babysitting them at the office until the end of the day or fetching his dry cleaning. I'm pretty sure that things will go back to normal once his wife returns (she's out of town), but in the meantime I feel very uncomfortable playing the part of personal assistant when I was hired as a receptionist.

New York, N.Y.

A: Your boss doesn't quite qualify for a lead role in this summer's Horrible Bosses, but he's clearly taking advantage of you. What's worse: you're letting him.

Stop it!

Always saying yes to his outrageous requests - and they are outrageous, by the way - may be hurting your career prospects.

Christine Riordan, dean of the University of Denver's Daniels College of Business, studied the careers of more than 1,500 people over a 20-year period, and found that employees who are too nice or accommodating can be perceived less favorably by the very people they are trying to impress: their supervisors.

'Being too nice can deter your career progress and muddle your effectiveness as a leader,' she says. Her research also showed that employees who are too likeable and too trusting receive lower salaries and fewer promotions. 'It's all about balance,' she says.

That things will 'go back to normal,' as you put it, once your boss's wife returns, is about as likely as your boss treating you as an equal - not very.

If it's not picking up the kids or his dry cleaning, it will be something else. You've become an 'office wife but with none of the benefits of an equal marriage,' says Shawn Achor, author of The Happiness Advantage and a positive-psychology expert.

It's time to set some boundaries.

Start by having a candid conversation with your boss. Explain your expectations regarding your role, responsibilities and activities, suggests Ms. Riordan. This will help you pin down what's within the range of normal for your job. 'Don't be afraid to ask questions, or for an explanation of your activities,' she says.

If you can get a sense of what your boss is thinking, you'll be in a much better position to make an informed decision about your own future.

Most likely, it will come down to three choices. You stand up for yourself and let your boss know what you will and won't do; you decide that you actually like the breaks from answering the phones and you keep doing it; or you find yourself another job.

Whatever you choose, relish the fact that you made up your own mind. Your job is to do your job, not to be a pushover.

Elizabeth Garone