1907年秋天，恐慌席卷了整个美国金融体系。股市市值缩水一半，银行挤兑风潮从一家机构蔓延至另一家，无论是健康的还是不健康的银行都未能幸免。但在位于纽约麦迪逊大道的摩根住宅的图书馆里，约翰•皮尔庞特•摩根(John Pierpoint Morgan)用自己的巨额财富和崇高声誉，成功集合纽约的银行家终结了此次危机。
一个世纪过去了，当代摩根将住所安置在大风肆虐的内布拉斯加州的奥马哈——年逾八旬的亿万富翁沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)已成为那些陷入困境的美国机构的最后投资者。巴菲特是一位信奉孤立主义的国会议员之子，其麾下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)是由众多公司组成的一个庞大的企业集团。
上周，巴菲特向美国银行(Bank of America)投资50亿美元，对这家受困机构表示了自己的认可——该银行正竭力试图说服投资者相信它已拨备了足够的资金，以应对在住宅泡沫期间发放的不良抵押贷款的遗留问题。
以狭义的金融标准来衡量，这笔交易对于美国银行而言代价极其高昂，但巴菲特的投资对该行股票产生了直接影响。投资消息传出后，该行股价上涨逾10%，而从年初到交易公布之前，其股价已几乎跌去一半，尽管包括对冲基金经理约翰•保尔森(John Paulson)在内的许多知名投资者都对其表示支持。
“在世人眼中，（巴菲特）比金融界大多数人都更有诚信。他是世界最富有的人之一，却把总部设在内布拉斯加州的奥马哈。他有许多决定都是正确的，他的既往表现证明了一切。三四年前，谁听说过约翰•保尔森啊？”说这话的比尔•艾萨克(Bill Isaac)曾担任为美国各银行提供存款担保的联邦存款保险公司(Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation)董事长。1991年，正是在他任内，沙特国王阿卜杜拉(King Abdullah)的侄子、阿尔瓦利德•本•塔拉尔王子( Prince Alwaleed bin Talal)向当时的花旗公司(Citicorp)注资5亿美元，帮助恢复了市场对该公司的信心。
当然还有其他财力雄厚的投资者，例如阿尔瓦利德王子或日本的三菱UFJ金融集团(Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group)。后者在金融危机期间购入摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley) 20%的股份。
但巴菲特的记录无人能比。1965年至2010年间，在他的领导下，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票的每股账面价值年均逾20%的速度增长。该公司早期股东的投资收益，要比标普500指数投资者高出78倍。
T2 Partners的惠特尼•蒂尔森(Whitney Tilson)表示：“巴菲特50年来一直在做尽职调查。该交易的达成只用了1个小时，但它是建立在过去50年经验的基础之上的。”T2 Partners也持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票。
现在能够扮演巴菲特角色的机构所剩无几。在1998年长期资本管理公司(Long-Term Capital Management) 濒临崩溃时，巴菲特给了其管理层一个小时的时间来决定，是接受还是拒绝他现金注资的条件。该公司拒绝了他的条件，最终倒闭了，但当时，高盛(Goldman Sachs)和汉克•格林伯格(Hank Greenberg)领导下的美国国际集团(AIG)也都有能力扮演救星。
但10年之后，无论是AIG还是高盛，都被迫在金融危机期间向巴菲特求助，不过，巴菲特认为AIG价格太过昂贵，最后只选择投资和救助后者。
巴菲特对伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的绝对控制，让他得以迅速采取行动。
劳伦斯•坎宁安(Lawrence Cunningham)表示：“巴菲特快速决策的能力十分出名。大多数有能力投入资金的公司，都必须经过各级管理层和委员会的层层批准。”坎宁安与巴菲特合著了《巴菲特致股东的信：美国股份公司教程》(The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America)一书。
投资于银行需要巴菲特摒弃他的根本理念——作为一个纯粹价值投资者，他不信任杠杆贷款和金融“噱头”。
巴菲特在1990年写给股东的信中表示：“银行业并不是我们的最爱。在这个行业中资产与股权的比例通常可达20倍，这意味着涉及很小一部分资产的差错就可能让股东权益发生重大亏损，而犯错是许多大银行的常态、而非特例。”
然而，巴菲特愿意以合适的价格投资于银行股。他在1989年和1990年以不到3亿美元的价格从富国银行(Wells Fargo)受够了10%的股份，这得益于他所谓的“混乱的银行股市场”。
巴菲特收购的是美国银行的优先股。这种股份也是巴菲特在投资其它高风险公司时使用的工具，比如对投资银行所罗门兄弟(Salomon Brothers)、美国航空(US Airways)和陷入困境的造纸企业 Champion等公司的投资。这么做虽然失去了普通股收益的上涨机会，但可以获得稳定的回报。
巴菲特的人气使得他可以扮演有别于华尔街机器的角色。巴菲特塑造了良好的公众形象，但那些了解他的人坚称，私底下的巴菲特与那些友善的公众评论并没有什么出入。
用简单的语言说明复杂问题的能力也让巴菲特获得了广泛的权威，比如他把衍生品称为“大规模杀伤性金融武器”。
艾萨克表示：“如果我在掌管FDIC或者是美联储主席，我将对巴菲特的所作所为感到非常高兴。这将逐渐增强人们对美银的信心。最终支撑整个（金融）体系并保持其完整的还是信心。”
但是在监管机构对巴菲特的及时干预感到欢欣鼓舞的同时，我们很难回避一个现实：巴菲特不可替代，但他已经80岁了。对于金融体系而言，仅仅依靠一个德高望重的老人的看法所传递出的信心是不够的。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001040393
By the autumn of 1907, panic gripped the US financial system. The stock market had halved in value and bank runs were spreading from one institution to another, wiping out both the healthy and the weak. Yet from the library of his Madison Avenue home, John Pierpont Morgan used his considerable wealth and reputation to successfully rally New York’s bankers to end the crisis.
A century on and the modern day Morgan resides in windswept Omaha, Nebraska. Warren Buffett, an octogenarian billionaire, son of an isolationist congressman and head of Berkshire Hathaway, a vast conglomerate of businesses, has somehow become the investor of last resort for troubled US institutions.
This week he invested $5bn in Bank of America, lending his stamp of approval to an institution struggling to convince investors that it had set enough capital aside to deal with the toxic legacy of mortgages extended during the days of the housing boom.
The deal was very expensive for the bank when judged on narrow financial criteria, but Mr Buffett’s investment had an immediate effect on BofA shares, which are up more than 10 per cent following news of the investment. The stock had almost halved from the start of the year, in spite of support from big-name investors such as hedge fund manager John Paulson.
“[Mr Buffett] is viewed as having more integrity than most people in the financial world. He’s one of the richest men in the world, and he sits in Omaha, Nebraska. He’s done a lot of things right, and his record speaks for himself. Whoever heard of Paulson before three or four years ago?” said Bill Isaac, former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which guarantees deposits at US banks. He was in that role in 1991 when Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, nephew of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, invested $500m to help restore confidence in what was then Citicorp.
There are other investors with deep pockets, such as Prince Alwaleed or Japan’s Mitsubishi UFG, which bought a 20 per cent stake in Morgan Stanley during the financial crisis.
But Mr Buffett boasts an unmatched record. Between 1965 and 2010 he has increased Berkshire’s book value per share by more than 20 per cent a year on average. An early shareholder in the company would have made 78 times more money than an investor in the S&P 500.
“Buffett has done 50 years of due diligence. The deal was done in an hour but it was based on 50 years of experience,” said Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners, which owns Berkshire stock.
There are precious few institutions left to play his role. When the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management was imploding in 1998, Mr Buffett gave its managers an hour to accept or reject his terms for a cash infusion. LTCM declined, and ultimately failed, but at the time Goldman Sachs and Hank Greenberg’s AIG were other potential saviours.
However, 10 years later both AIG and Goldman were forced to turn to Mr Buffett during the financial crisis, although he only chose to invest and help save the latter, finding AIG’s price too expensive.
His absolute control of Berkshire allows Mr Buffett to act swiftly.
“He is very well known for being able to make quick decisions. Most firms able to commit capital have layers of management and committees to go through,” said Lawrence Cunningham, co-author with Mr Buffett of The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America.
Investing in banks has required Mr Buffett to move away from his roots as a pure value investor suspicious of leverage and financial gimmickry.
“The banking business is no favourite of ours. When assets are twenty times equity – a common ratio in this industry – mistakes that involve only a small portion of assets can destroy a major portion of equity. And mistakes have been the rule rather than the exception at many major banks,” Mr Buffett wrote in his 1990 letter to shareholders.
However, he was prepared to invest in banks at the right price, obtaining 10 per cent of Wells Fargo for less than $300m in 1989 and 1990, helped by what he called “a chaotic market in bank stocks”.
Preferred stock, which he purchased in BofA, has also been a tool Mr Buffett has liked to use in other risky companies, sacrificing the upside of a normal shareholding for a secure return in companies such as Salomon Brothers, the investment bank, US Airways and Champion, a struggling paper business.
Mr Buffett’s popularity allows him to play a role as someone apart from the Wall Street machine. The public image is well crafted, but those who know him insist that there is no difference between the folksy public comments and the private man.
The ability to capture complex topics in simple comments, such that derivatives are “financial weapons of mass destruction”, has also leant Mr Buffett a popular authority.
“If I were running the FDIC or was chairman of the Fed, I’d be very happy Buffett did what he did. It will instil confidence in Bank of America. And in the end what underlies the whole system and keeps it together is confidence,” said Mr Isaac.
But while regulators may cheer a timely intervention, it is hard to escape the fact that Mr Buffett is both irreplaceable and 80. The financial system needs more than confidence in the opinion of one very well respected old man.
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