几乎肯定将接替温家宝出任中国总理的李克强，上周带着"礼物"访问了香港。其中一些"礼物"是口头上的。他表示，香港将继续在中国内地改革开放和现代化建设中发挥"不可替代的重要作用"。但还有一些"礼物"则更加实际。北京方面选择同一天在香港发行200亿元人民币（合31亿美元）债券，这是迄今规模最大的一次离岸人民币债券发行。同样重要的是，北京方面宣布了旨在增加香港与内地之间资金流动的相关举措，比如允许内地投资者购买与香港股票挂钩的交易所交易基金(ETF)。此外，香港、上海和深圳的证交所也计划成立合资企业，以便利用这些新的机遇。
就在不那么久以前，悲观者还认为香港作为一个金融中心的日子已经不多了。然而，这座城市非但没有衰落，反而增添了新的活力，这得益于其作为中国最成熟金融中心和新兴离岸人民币业务中心的角色。去年，香港摘得全球首次公开发行(IPO)排行榜桂冠，交易总额达到530亿美元，高于纽约的350亿美元。香港仍是中国的首要金融橱窗，至少在人民币可自由兑换之前，香港将保持这一地位。
不过，香港并不能松口气。目前存在好几个不确定性。首先，有关人民币自由化的说法有点夸大其辞。北京方面对国家的资本账户看得很严。跨境人民币投资受到严格的配额限制，或者要求通过个案审批。如果北京方面觉得不对，它可以叫停跨境资金流动。其次，随着香港进一步融入中国的金融体系，香港各银行的风险敞口可能会加大。迄今为止，当地监管机构在控制香港的银行放贷方面做得不错。但是，随着这些银行进一步扩张，深入内地，监管者必须加倍警惕。第三，内地资金大举涌入并非都是好消息。香港楼价已出现不可持续的上涨。由于施行盯住美元的汇率机制，香港在防止泡沫方面的手段较为有限。
北京方面也需要审慎。李克强正确地指出，独立司法制度、开放性和资讯发达是香港的重要资产。这些特性与香港目前享有的相对自由密不可分。如果北京方面真的像李克强所说的那样，重视香港在中国金融现代化中的作用，那么它就应当继续保障这些自由。
译者/和风
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001040252
Li Keqiang, the man almost certain to succeed Wen Jiabao as China's premier, came to Hong Kong last week bearing gifts. Some of these were rhetorical. Hong Kong, he said continues to "play its irreplaceable role in the mainland's reform, opening-up and modernisation drive." But there were also more tangible goodies. Beijing picked the same day to place a Rmb20bn ($3.1bn) bond in Hong Kong, the biggest offshore renminbi offering thus far. Equally important, it announced measures intended to increase flows of money between Hong Kong and China, such as allowing mainland investors to buy exchange traded funds linked to Hong Kong shares. There are also plans for a joint venture between the stock exchanges in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzen to capture these new opportunities.
Not so long ago, pessimists were counting Hong Kong's last days as a financial centre. Yet far from diminishing, the city has gained new vigour thanks to its role as China's most sophisticated financial hub and centre of a nascent offshore renminbi business. Last year, Hong Kong topped the global IPO table with deals worth a total $53bn, higher than New York's $35bn. It remains the principal financial shop window onto China, a position it will hold at least until the renminbi is fully convertible.
Yet, Hong Kong cannot relax. There are several uncertainties. First, talk of the renminbi's liberalisation is overegged. Beijing keeps an extremely close watch over its capital account. Cross-border renminbi investment is subject to strict quotas or case-by-case approval. If Beijing gets cold feet, it could stop these flows dead. Second, as Hong Kong becomes more integrated into China's financial system, the exposure of its banks to risk could increase. The city's regulators have done well at controlling banks' lending in Hong Kong. But as banks expand deeper into the mainland, regulators must redouble their vigilance. Third, the tide of mainland money is not all good news. Property prices have risen unsustainably. Hong Kong has only limited tools to prevent bubbles given the dollar peg.
Beijing also needs to be cautious. Mr Li rightly identified Hong Kong's independent judiciary, openness and access to information as important assets. Those attributes are intimately linked with the relative freedoms that Hong Kong enjoys. If Beijing truly values Hong Kong's role in China's financial modernisation, as Mr Li says, it should at all costs continue to guarantee those freedoms.
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