道
指在过去五个交易日里已累计下跌了10%，有些人很可能会因此感到不解：我现在仍在买股票是不是太疯狂了？其实你知道答案的──当然很疯狂。
尽管说我天真幼稚或痴心妄想吧。反正我上上周四和上周一买进了，上周三又再次买进，如果美国股市再跌，我很可能还会再买。
我不是不知道美国经济现在摇摇欲坠，不是不知道标普下调法国信用评级也许近在眼前，更不是不知道华尔街"疾病缠身"。
只是，有关美国大盘股的定价已经包含了太多负面消息。要想在这样的价格水平上安心买股，我只需对企业未来长期收益比所有恐慌性抛售的人少悲观一点就好了。
这很容易做到。
首先，大多数人在抛售时想的不是盈利，当然也就更想不到长期盈利。
其实，大多数人根本连想都没想就抛售了。纽约证交所(NYSE)所有的股票交易中，50%至60%是借助高频计算机算法来进行的。对它们来说，投资也不过就是千分之几秒的事。
在一个被对冲基金、杠杆操作ETF的即日交易员和受到惊吓的散户搅得鸡飞狗跳的市场上运用这样的算法(他们平均的投资期限为48小时)，道指仅下跌了500点可谓是个不小的奇迹。
有这样一个值得思考的案例：周三下午3点，有人抛售强生公司(Johnson & Johnson)股息率3.8%的股票，去买收益率2.2%的10年期美国国债。他放弃的不仅是1.6%的收益率，还有强生股票的AAA信用评级及日后的上升空间，而去购买所谓的"避险天堂"、信誉仍在不断丧失的AA+级的美国国债。
这是一种末日交易。只有在你认为这个世界将发生大爆炸、或强生公司将炸掉自己或你刚好在尾盘时接到了追加保证金的通知时，发生这种交易才讲得通。
这些抛售股票的人是不是在自己的脑海里想象了一幅具体且对此深信不疑的画面：欧元崩盘、经济随即发生大规模衰退、强生的收益和利润受到重挫？
说到底，强生的股价和任何股价一样，应当是有关公司未来的自由现金流取向无穷尽的一个数学函数。
当然，大多数抛售者不会做出如此糊涂之举。他们抛售是因为恐慌和悲观，因为别人都在抛售。其实，他们在应该买入的时候卖掉了股票。
道指30支成分股中有近三分之二的股票的股息收入高于10年期美国国债当前的收益率。这些股票可不只是包括股息收入高达6%的美国通讯公司Verizon或美国电话电报公司(AT&T)等半公用事业公司。英特尔(Intel)目前的股价不到20美元，股息率超过4%，市盈率为个位数。
美国大盘股令人着迷的市盈率倍数和稳定的收益能保证这些股票不下跌吗？当然不能。
你难道没有从当年雷曼兄弟倒闭和最近标普下调美国评级中学到任何东西吗？谈到投资，就没有绝对的必然和保证。没有任何一个投资者可以不断地在最低点买入并在最高点抛售。
这也是为什么我买卖股票的时间会交错进行，并延续数周或数月的时间。你不可能总是在对的时间买卖。你能做的，就是在其他所有人都阵脚大乱时保持冷静。
历史已无数次证明，那些在别人恐慌性抛售时买入股票的投资者往往能够赚大钱。
只这一点就足够支撑我继续买下去了。
Evan Newmark
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
With the Dow down 10% over the last five sessions, some of you are probably wondering whether I'm still crazy enough to be buying stocks.
You know the answer. Of course I am.
Call me naïve, call me delusional. But I bought last Thursday and last Monday. I bought again yesterday ─ and if the market heads lower today, I'll probably buy once more.
No, I'm not ignorant of America's stumbling economy, France's impending S&P downgrade or Wall Street's sundry woes.
It's just that U.S. large-cap stocks are already pricing in lots and lots of bad news. To be comfortable buying stocks at this level, I only have to be less pessimistic about future long-term corporate earnings than all the panicky sellers.
And that's easy.
To start, most of the sellers aren't thinking about profits and they're certainly not thinking long-term.
Heck, most of them aren't thinking at all. Fifty to sixty percent of all NYSE trading volume is driven by high-frequency computer algorithms. Their investing time-span is all of several milliseconds.
Throw these algorithms into a market churning with hedge funds, leveraged ETF day traders and panicked retail investors, all with an average investing horizon of 48 hours, and it's a small miracle the Dow ends down a mere 500 points.
Just consider the seller who at 3 p.m. Wednesday was unloading a Johnson & Johnson share with a dividend yield of 3.8% in order to buy a 10-year Treasury yielding 2.2%. He was giving up 1.6% in yield, plus upside equity in a AAA-rated credit for the 'safe haven' of an ever-eroding AA-plus piece of government paper.
This is an Armageddon trade the kind of trade that only makes sense if you believe the world will blow up or J&J will blow itself up, or if you happen to have a late-day margin call.
Have the sellers run through a specific scenario that embeds the collapse of the euro, an ensuing massive recession and the knock-on effects on J&J's margins and profits?
After all, J&J's share price, like any share price, should be a mathematical function of a company's future free cash flows into perpetuity.
Of course, most sellers did no such thing. They sold on fear. They sold on pessimism. They sold because other people were selling. They sold when, in fact, they should have been buying.
Nearly two-thirds of the Dow's 30 stocks today will give you a dividend yield greater than the current yield on the 10-year Treasury. This list doesn't just include quasi-utilities like Verizon or AT&T that yield a stunning 6%. At under $20 a share, Intel yields over 4% and trades with a single-digit P/E.
Are the attractive P/E multiples and solid yields in U.S. large caps a guarantee that these stocks can't go lower? No, of course not.
Didn't the collapse of Lehman and the recent S&P downgrade of the U.S. teach you anything? When it comes to investing, there are no absolute certainties, no guarantees. No investor has been able to repeatedly pick stock market tops and bottoms.
That's why I stagger both my stock purchases and sales over weeks or months. You will never get it absolutely right. The best you can do is keep your wits about you when everybody else is losing theirs.
Time and time again, history has shown that investors who buy when others are frantically selling tend to make a lot more money.
That's certainly enough to keep me buying.
Evan Newmark
本文涉及股票或公司
You know the answer. Of course I am.
Call me naïve, call me delusional. But I bought last Thursday and last Monday. I bought again yesterday ─ and if the market heads lower today, I'll probably buy once more.
No, I'm not ignorant of America's stumbling economy, France's impending S&P downgrade or Wall Street's sundry woes.
It's just that U.S. large-cap stocks are already pricing in lots and lots of bad news. To be comfortable buying stocks at this level, I only have to be less pessimistic about future long-term corporate earnings than all the panicky sellers.
And that's easy.
To start, most of the sellers aren't thinking about profits and they're certainly not thinking long-term.
Heck, most of them aren't thinking at all. Fifty to sixty percent of all NYSE trading volume is driven by high-frequency computer algorithms. Their investing time-span is all of several milliseconds.
Throw these algorithms into a market churning with hedge funds, leveraged ETF day traders and panicked retail investors, all with an average investing horizon of 48 hours, and it's a small miracle the Dow ends down a mere 500 points.
Just consider the seller who at 3 p.m. Wednesday was unloading a Johnson & Johnson share with a dividend yield of 3.8% in order to buy a 10-year Treasury yielding 2.2%. He was giving up 1.6% in yield, plus upside equity in a AAA-rated credit for the 'safe haven' of an ever-eroding AA-plus piece of government paper.
This is an Armageddon trade the kind of trade that only makes sense if you believe the world will blow up or J&J will blow itself up, or if you happen to have a late-day margin call.
Have the sellers run through a specific scenario that embeds the collapse of the euro, an ensuing massive recession and the knock-on effects on J&J's margins and profits?
After all, J&J's share price, like any share price, should be a mathematical function of a company's future free cash flows into perpetuity.
Of course, most sellers did no such thing. They sold on fear. They sold on pessimism. They sold because other people were selling. They sold when, in fact, they should have been buying.
Nearly two-thirds of the Dow's 30 stocks today will give you a dividend yield greater than the current yield on the 10-year Treasury. This list doesn't just include quasi-utilities like Verizon or AT&T that yield a stunning 6%. At under $20 a share, Intel yields over 4% and trades with a single-digit P/E.
Are the attractive P/E multiples and solid yields in U.S. large caps a guarantee that these stocks can't go lower? No, of course not.
Didn't the collapse of Lehman and the recent S&P downgrade of the U.S. teach you anything? When it comes to investing, there are no absolute certainties, no guarantees. No investor has been able to repeatedly pick stock market tops and bottoms.
That's why I stagger both my stock purchases and sales over weeks or months. You will never get it absolutely right. The best you can do is keep your wits about you when everybody else is losing theirs.
Time and time again, history has shown that investors who buy when others are frantically selling tend to make a lot more money.
That's certainly enough to keep me buying.
Evan Newmark
本文涉及股票或公司
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