不少颇受尊敬的评论人士现在都开始扬言，世界即将毁灭，考虑到近来欧洲和美国同时发生的一系列重大经济事件，这样的说法或许并不意外。眼下，信用评级被调降的美国和努力维系欧元存在的欧元区，都面临着巨大的挑战。但幸运的是，还有一些重要的其他大国和经济驱动因素——其中最重要的，就是中国及其对通胀的担忧。
如今，所谓的金砖四国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）的需求对于全球经济的重要性，已经超过了美国和欧洲。本世纪头十年，金砖四国为全球国内生产总值(GDP)增长贡献了大约8万亿美元，相当于七国集团(G7)增长总额的80%左右。未来十年，金砖四国可能将再贡献大约12万亿美元，为美国和欧元区总和的两倍。
在金砖四国中，中国显然最为重要，就此而言，中国周二发布的最新通胀数据意义尤其重大。中国7月份消费价格再次略有上涨，通胀率达到6.5%。通胀问题令中国领导人担心，但这实际上很可能是一段时间内的最后一次增长。到今年年底，通胀率应该会回落至5%——甚至可能更低。到明年，应该会向4%的水平滑落。但如果这一切未能如愿，结果可能会给欧洲和美国带来更严重的问题——尤其是如果其它新兴国家也出现同样情况的话。
现在，中国的通胀形势已成为一个全球性的重要话题。对于发达经济体而言，应对本国国内的挑战固然十分重要，但在新的时代背景下，全面考虑任何政策改变可能给其它国家造成的后果，也变得越来越重要。西方各国央行肯定都在谋划出台新的货币刺激措施。但考虑到全球大环境，它们也许更应该采取行动，帮助目前及未来的出口市场减轻通胀压力。
未来十年，韩国、印尼、墨西哥和土耳其等其它重要的发展中经济体也将迅速增长。但与中国的情况一样，对于所有这些国家而言，要想推动国内需求增长（进而推动全球经济发展），真正关键的是借助大宗商品价格下降，减轻通胀压力。而对欧美出口的重要性要小得多。
中国亦是如此，且鉴于其经济的规模，情况只会更甚。实际上，世界比以往任何时候都更需要中国国内经济的强大。我想这一愿望有可能实现。全球危机爆发之前，中国经济是靠出口和投资拉动的。危机过后，中国经济将靠消费拉动。但如果中国的通胀不断加剧，这种愿景就无法实现。
最新的零售指标显示，中国的消费开支可能每年增长约20%。中国目前的消费规模为2.1万亿美元。假定这一水平仅为官方GDP数据的35%，那么20%的增长相当于每年为GDP多贡献4000亿美元。金砖四国其它成员的消费增长总值也大体相当，这意味着，仅这四个国家，今年一年就将为全球增长增加约8000亿美元。
如果再把所有下一梯队的发展中市场的国内消费总值加起来，你会发现，世界已不再依赖美欧的领导。实际上，G7领导人现在不由得希望，当前消费的快速增长能够持续下去，因为这确实是唯一似乎能让它们摆脱当前困境的办法。
由于中国及其它发展中经济体最近出现的通胀，主要都归因于食品和能源价格上涨，这应该会让G7政策制定者在出台任何新的货币刺激及其它形式的刺激措施之前，仔细考虑这些措施可能带来的后果。如果这些刺激措施导致美元再次走软，由此引发新一轮大宗商品价格上涨，可能会间接让这些国家的问题进一步恶化。出台一些旨在扫清本国增长障碍的更明确的政策可能更为有效，并有利于大宗商品价格的下降。我们的政策目标应该简单明了：推动这些关键出口市场的经济增长——未来西方将越来越需要这些市场的帮助。
注：本文作者为高盛资产管理公司(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)董事长。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001040094
Perhaps not surprisingly given the coincidence of major economic issues in both Europe and the US, many respected commentators are arguing that the world is about to end. Immense challenges now face the downgraded US and the eurozone, as it tries to keep its currency alive. Luckily, however, there are other important global players and economic drivers – most importantly China, and its worries about inflation.
Demand in the so-called Bric economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China is now more important to the world economy than the US and Europe. In the decade that finished in 2010, the Brics added around $8,000bn to global gross domestic product, equivalent to about 80 per cent of that of the Group of Seven leading economies. The Brics will probably add around $12,000bn more over the next decade, double the US and the eurozone combined.
China is obviously the most important of the Brics, and in this regard, Tuesday’s new Chinese inflation figures are especially significant. For the month of July, these showed prices rising slightly again, to 6.5 per cent. Any rise worries China’s leaders, but this is actually likely to be the last increase for some time. By the end of the year the rate should fall back to – or perhaps below – 5 per cent. Next year, it should move back down towards 4 per cent. If this were not to happen, it might end up being an even bigger problem for Europe and the US, especially if the same were true elsewhere in the Growth World.
What happens to China’s inflation rate is now a topic of great significance for the wider world. It will of course be important for the advanced economies to respond to their domestic challenges. But in the new era, it is also ever more vital to think through the external consequences of any policy changes they make. The west’s central banks are doubtless contemplating fresh monetary stimulus. But given the wider global context, they might be better off taking actions that would help to reduce inflationary pressures in their current and future export markets.
Over the coming decade other important developing economies, such as South Korea, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey, will also grow quickly. Yet for all of these countries, just as with China, what really matters for their domestic demand (and therefore for the world economy) is reduced inflationary pressures, helped by lower commodity prices. Exports to the US and Europe matter much less.
The same is true in China, only more so given the size of the economy. Indeed, the world needs a strong domestic Chinese economy more than ever. I think we are likely to get one. Pre-global crisis China was led by exports and investment. Post-crisis, it will be led by its consumers. Yet this cannot happen if Chinese inflation is rising.
The latest retail sales indicators suggest that Chinese consumption is probably rising by around 20 per cent per year. The current size of Chinese consumption is $2,100bn. Assuming the level is as low as the 35 per cent of GDP in the official data, then a 20 per cent growth rate translates into an extra $400bn a year. The combined rate of consumption growth in the other Bric nations is similar, meaning that these four countries alone will add something like $800bn to global growth this year alone.
If you then add up the domestic consumption of all the next tier of developing markets, you find that the world is no longer dependent on the leadership of the US and Europe. Indeed, the leaders of the G7 will now have to be even more hopeful that the current degree of fast consumption increases continues, given it is really the only plausible means by which they can recover from their current mess.
Insofar as much of the inflation that China and the other developing economies have recently experienced comes from food and energy prices, this should make G7 policymakers think carefully about the consequences of any fresh monetary and other forms of stimulus. This action might indirectly make their own problems even worse, if it resulted in fresh weakness of the dollar and thus a new bout of rising commodity prices. More specific policies aimed at unblocking their own domestic growth would probably be more useful, and support any declines in commodity prices. Our policy aim should be simple: to boost the economies of these crucial export markets, whose help the west is going to need ever more in future.
The writer is chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management
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