美联储(Federal Reserve)主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)可能不会早早就写好自己的讲话稿，否则他现在肯定会撕掉自己为本周五杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)各国央行行长会议拟定的初稿。市场的剧烈波动，反映出人们的经济预期在过去几个月已发生了翻天覆地的变化——政策制定者的各种考虑也随之有了很大改变。
众人脑海中有一个问号挥之不去：伯南克会不会再度祭出他在2010年的招数，宣布美联储将启动新一轮资产购买，即第三轮量化宽松(QE3)？按照伯南克为前两轮QE提供理由时所使用的逻辑，过去6个月期间经济急剧减速，说明现在是采取更多行动的好时机。美联储相信，就降低长期利率而言，前两轮资产购买行动起到了作用。
但尚不清楚的是，前两轮QE为经济复苏做出了多大贡献？更多QE能够在多大程度上防止经济停滞？长期利率水平已经很低。进一步降低此类利率，将主要惠及那些已获得信贷的人——大公司和借了抵押贷款的家庭。而这两个群体并没有显示出想要增加支出的任何迹象：家庭正忙于降低杠杆率，企业则乐于囤积资金。
为提振需求，放贷必须流向信贷受限的花钱者，或者让拥有现金的人找到值得用钱的地方。前者要求修复一个扼制信贷扩张、运转不灵的银行体系，后者则要求恢复人们对经济增长前景的信心——在没有实现一些实际增长的情况下，很难想象会发生这种情况。
这也就是说，有没有QE3，可能不会产生太大的不同。更为激进的货币政策可能产生不同，但伯南克似乎尚未考虑那些举措。因此，并不令人意外的是，有越来越多的人开始质疑：急于削减财政赤字是否明智？国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagard)正确地指出，遏制经济增长的财政收紧对信用可靠性的威胁，可能与赤字过多一样大。丹麦已成为第一个酝酿新一轮财政刺激方案的发达国家。
反思财政整固的时间表必须慎之又慎。有巨额赤字的多数国家承受不起失去可信度的代价，它们必须避免产生哪怕是最轻微的改变念头的风声。但也有一些国家在财政政策上的回旋余地大于它们的想象。尤其是在协调行动的情况下，如果它们稍微松一下腰带，它们没有什么可失去的，而对全球需求则能够作出相当大贡献。
译者/和风
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001040329
Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, probably does not write his speeches long in advance. If he does, he must be tearing up the early drafts of his speech for the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers this Friday. Topsy-turvy markets reflect how economic expectations have been turned upside down in the past few months – and with them, the considerations facing policymakers.
The will-he-will-he-not question on everybody's mind is whether Mr Bernanke will repeat his 2010 trick of signalling a new round of asset purchases – quantitative easing 3 – by the Fed. On the logic by which Mr Bernanke justified earlier bouts of QE, the abrupt slowdown of the last six months should be a good occasion for doing more. The Fed believes the earlier assets purchases worked, insofar as they lowered long-term interest rates.
But it is not clear how much this did for the recovery or to what extent more QE can stop the economy from stalling. Long-term interest rates are already very low. Lowering them further will mostly benefit those already accessing credit – large corporations and mortgaged households. These are not showing any sign of wanting to spend more: households are busy deleveraging, and companies are happy to hoard their cash.
To boost demand, lending must flow to credit-constrained spenders or those with cash must find it worth using. The former requires fixing a broken banking system that throttles credit expansion. The latter requires renewed confidence in the economy's growth prospects, and this is hard to imagine without some actual growth.
To QE3 or not to QE3, then, may not make all that much difference. Much more radical monetary policies could, but Mr Bernanke seems not to be contemplating these. So it is hardly surprising to hear more and more voices question the wisdom of rushing to cut fiscal deficits. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, rightly points out that growth-killing fiscal tightening can be as big a threat to creditworthiness as excessive deficits. Denmark has become a pioneer among developed countries by considering a new fiscal stimulus package.
Rethinking the pace of fiscal consolidation must be done with care. Most countries with huge deficits cannot afford to lose credibility and must avoid even the slightest whiff of second thoughts. Others have more fiscal space than they think. Especially if they act in concert, they have little to lose – and much to give to global demand – from loosening their belts a bit.
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