2011年8月25日

比亚迪汽车销量下滑 扩张计划受阻 BYD Expansion Threatened

亚迪传统汽油动力汽车的销量大幅下滑,可能损害其电动汽车和其他"绿色"技术的宏大扩张计划,给巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在该公司的投资带来更多质疑。巴菲特在比亚迪投资的价值曾经大幅飙升,但过去一年出现暴跌。

周二,投资者抛售比亚迪在香港上市的股票,此前该公司于周一晚间披露说,根据中国的会计标准,公司上半年利润同比下滑近90%,降至人民币2.7536亿元(合4,300万美元)。位于深圳的比亚迪表示,当季收益可能将下滑类似的幅度。上半年比亚迪汽车销量下滑23%,至220,131辆。汽车销售占了比亚迪收入的近一半。

比亚迪在香港上市的股票价格跌了14.3%,至每股16.18港元(合2.07美元),为2009年4月以来的最低收盘价,较2009年10月创下的最高收盘价每股85.50港元跌了86%。

Reuters
在4月份的上海车展上,一位男子站在一辆比亚迪电动汽车前。
2008年比亚迪股价飙升时,巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)的子公司中美能源控股公司(MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co.)收购了比亚迪10%的股权,此举被誉为投资大师巴菲特凭藉远见卓识取得的又一项成功,并将使中美能源控股当时的董事长索科尔(David Sokol)和投资经理李路获益匪浅。李路最早使比亚迪获得了伯克希尔副董事长芒格(Charlie Munger)的注意。索科尔曾是最有希望接巴菲特班的人,据说李路当时也在争取有朝一日能接手巴菲特的部分投资职责。李路去年退出竞争,索科尔则在今年早些时候辞职。

索科尔曾是比亚迪的董事会成员。比亚迪发言人说,索科尔尚未被替换。

比亚迪目前的股价仍比中美能源控股购股时支付的每股8港元高出约一倍,但如今的市值只有36亿美元,较最高时的192亿美元大大缩水。

股价暴跌的原因是,投资者担心比亚迪在汽油动力汽车上的收入和利润出现大幅下滑会损害其业务模式,而巴菲特的公司投资比亚迪看重的正是这一模式:用出售比亚迪生产的传统汽车和手机电池所获收入,来资助该公司对电动汽车、太阳能电池板和其他绿色技术成本高昂的研发。这些技术可能拥有光明未来。

比亚迪周一在最新的收益报告中说,上半年研发支出同比减少13%,至人民币6.12亿元,而此前多年比亚迪一直大幅扩大研发支出,以便支持电动汽车和其他绿色技术产品。这一消息加剧了投资者的不安。

汽车咨询公司Automotive Foresight驻上海负责人张豫(Yale Zhang)说,比亚迪高管需要保持在新能源汽车领域的投资,因为正是绿色的形像使比亚迪不同一般公司,但他们没有剩下足够的资金用于普通汽油动力汽车的开发。

自去年夏季以来,比亚迪的汽车销售一直在下滑,部分原因是外国公司及其在中国当地的合作伙伴在华推出了经济型汽车,这给比亚迪带来了竞争,比如通用汽车(General Motors Co.)的雪佛兰赛欧(Sail)紧凑型轿车。比亚迪的销售还因中国政府取消小排量汽车购置税优惠政策的决定而受到冲击。2009年和2010年初,汽车购置税优惠政策推动了比亚迪汽车销售的增长。

巴菲特未立即回复置评请求。比亚迪一位发言人拒绝就研发开支的问题具体置评。

但比亚迪董事长王传福周二在香港说,比亚迪希望通过在下半年推出更多新车型来重振汽车销量。

王传福说,我们一直在开发更高端的新车型以提振销量,我相信我们下半年的销售会比上半年好。他拒绝透露全年销售目标。

王传福于1995年参与创建了比亚迪,公司最初主要制造手机电池。2003年收购西安一家小型汽车制造商后,比亚迪开始生产汽车,并获得初步成功。2009年,比亚迪在中国的汽车销量达到44.8万辆,是2008年17.09万辆的两倍多,令比亚迪成为中国最大的私营汽车制造商之一。

王传福打入电动汽车市场的高调计划吸引了伯克希尔哈撒韦及其他投资者的注意。王传福将转战电动汽车看做大步超越更知名全球对手的机会,方法是利用比亚迪在手机电池业务中已经开发的技术。

去年,其他中国本土汽车制造商在开发汽油动力汽车方面的投入纷纷超过比亚迪。面对这些公司的竞争,比亚迪传统的汽车业务受到打击。比亚迪去年的汽车销量为519,806辆,增幅仅为16%,按中国的标准来看属于缓慢增长,并且未达到起初预期的80万辆。

今年1月接受采访时,王传福提到了一项改革战略,他说这项战略会恢复比亚迪的销售增长。王传福承诺将花更多时间开发更具竞争力的车型,并会将专卖店数量从2010年年底的约1,000家削减5%,淘汰经验不足的专卖店。他说,比亚迪在预测需求方面会做得更好,并会更注重"销售质量"而非"痴迷于市场份额"。

这些措施的成果尚未显现。

包括Automotive Foresight的张豫在内的许多行业观察人士认为,比亚迪在其准备大展宏图的绿色科技领域拥有相当好的技术。比亚迪说,公司在未来几年仍计划制造广泛供应中美私人购车者的纯电动汽车e6。比亚迪还计划于2013年以前在中国再推出一款纯电动汽车,该公司从去年起一直在与德国戴姆勒(Daimler AG)联合开发这款车。戴姆勒发言人说,项目已经走上正轨。

比亚迪还在采取行动提高大型电量储存系统(即储能电站)的销量,该系统是基于比亚迪为私人家庭和企业服务的锂离子电池技术开发的。储能电站会在晚上用电低谷且电价较低时充电储能,然后在白天使用,从而为私人用户和企业节省能源成本。比亚迪希望该业务能在日本这样的市场起步。日本在今年早些时候发生核事故后面临电力短缺。

Norihiko Shirouzu / Joanne Chiu

(更新完成)

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


A sharp fall in sales of conventional gasoline cars at BYD Co. is threatening to undercut its ambitious expansion plans for electric cars and other 'green' technologies, throwing further doubt on a once-soaring investment by Warren Buffett in the Chinese company that has plunged in the last year.

Investors dumped BYD's Hong Kong-listed shares Tuesday following its disclosure late Monday that its first-half profit fell nearly 90% from a year earlier to 275.36 million yuan ($43 million), based on Chinese accounting standards. The Shenzhen-based company indicated earnings in the current quarter would fall by a similar amount. Its car sales, which account for nearly half its revenue, fell 23% in the first half of the year to 220,131 cars.

BYD's share price fell 14.3% in Hong Kong trading to 16.18 Hong Kong dollars ($2.07)─the lowest finish since April 2009 and down 86% from BYD's highest closing price of HK$85.50 in October 2009.

When BYD's shares were soaring, the purchase of 10% of the company in 2008 by MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., a unit of Mr. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc., was hailed as another visionary triumph for the investment giant and boons to then-MidAmerican Chairman David Sokol and Li Lu, the money manager who originally brought BYD to the attention of Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger. Mr. Sokol was once a leading contender to replace Mr. Buffett, and Mr. Li was said to be in the running to take over some of Mr. Buffett's investment duties. Mr. Li took himself out of the running last year, and Mr. Sokol resigned earlier this year.

Mr. Sokol, who held a seat on BYD's board, hasn't yet been replaced, a BYD spokeswoman said.

BYD's shares still trade around twice the HK$8 price that MidAmerican paid, but its stake today is worth $3.6 billion, down from $19.2 billion at its peak.

Behind the plunging share price is fear that the big fall in revenue and profit from gasoline-fueled cars is damaging the BYD business model in which Mr. Buffett's company invested: using sales of traditional cars and of the cellphone batteries BYD makes to help finance expensive research and development of electric cars, solar panels and other green technologies that have a potentially bright future.

Fueling that anxiety, BYD in its latest earnings report Monday said it cut spending on R&D in the first half of the year by 13% from a year earlier to 612 million yuan─following years of aggressive growth in such spending to support electric-car and other green-tech products.

BYD executives 'need to keep investing in new-energy vehicles because it is that green image that differentiates the company, but they don't have enough money left for regular gasoline-car development,' says Yale Zhang, head of automotive consulting company Automotive Foresight in Shanghai.

BYD's car sales have been slipping since last summer in part because of competition from affordable cars launched in China by foreign companies and their local partners, such as General Motors Co.'s Chevy Sail compact car. BYD's sales also suffered from the Chinese government's decision to scrap purchase incentives for small cars that boosted its sales significantly in 2009 and early 2010.

Mr. Buffett didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. A BYD spokeswoman declined to comment specifically on concerns about R&D spending.

But BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu said Tuesday in Hong Kong that BYD hopes to revive car sales by launching more new models in the second half of this year.

'We have been developing higher-end new-car models in a bid to boost sales, and I am hopeful our sales in the second half would be better than that of the first half,' Mr. Wang said. He declined to provide a full-year sales target.

Mr. Wang co-founded BYD in 1995, initially focusing on making batteries for cell phones. It began making cars in 2003 when it acquired a small auto maker in Xian, and it found early success. In 2009, its car sales in China more than doubled to 448,000 vehicles, from 170,900 in 2008, making it one of China's biggest privately owned auto makers.

It was Mr. Wang's high-profile plans to expand into electric vehicles that drew the attention of Berkshire Hathaway and other investors. Mr. Wang saw the shift toward electric cars as a chance to leapfrog more established global rivals, by leveraging the technology his company had developed in its cellphone-battery business.

Last year, BYD's traditional car business sputtered amid competition from other home-grown Chinese auto makers that outspent BYD developing gasoline-fueled models. BYD's sales rose just 16% to 519,806 vehicles, a slow pace by China standards and far short of the 800,000 vehicles it had initially projected.

In an interview in January this year, Mr. Wang outlined a retooled strategy that he said would rejuvenate growth. Mr. Wang pledged to take more time to develop more competitive cars and cut the number of sales outlets by 5% from roughly 1,000 at the end of 2010 to weed out inexperienced stores. He said BYD would do better forecasting demand and focus more on 'quality of sales' rather than 'obsessing on market share.'

Those efforts have yet to show results.

Many industry observers, including Mr. Zhang of Automotive Foresight, believe BYD does have decent technology for its green ambitions.The company says it still plans to make an all-electric car called the e6 widely available to private buyers in China and the U.S. over the next couple of years. BYD is also expected to launch by 2013 in China another all-electric car it has been developing jointly with Germany's Daimler AG since last year. A Daimler spokeswoman said that project 'is on track.'

BYD is also making moves to increase sales of large-scale electric-power storage systems based on its lithium-ion battery technology for private households and businesses. Those devices are for storing power at night when electricity is abundant and cheap and using it during the day as a way to save energy cost for private buyers and businesses. The company is hoping for the business to take off in a market like Japan that is facing power shortages in the wake of the nuclear accident there earlier this year.

Norihiko Shirouzu / Joanne Chiu

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