投资者可从上证综指过去一周下跌10%中得到一些安慰。没错，上海股市的悲观情绪似乎引发了其它股市投资者的恐慌。但是，如果此轮下跌是由中国将出台价格控制措施（企业被迫从国家利益出发，不提价或亏本运营某些业务）的可怕前景所致（这看上去很有可能），那就比较令人鼓舞。它表明，传统上与国内流动性密切相关的上证综指，也许正变得能够更好地反映市场对盈利增长前景的最佳估计。
还有其它证据证明上海股市正在成熟。考虑一下A/H股的价差（在香港上市的H股与在上海上市的相应A股的相对价格）。从2006年至2009年，A股相对于在更为开放的香港上市的H股有平均31%的溢价。不过，自今年初以来，平均溢价已收窄至6%；自7月份以来，两者价差在溢价和折扣之间波动。同样，值得注意的是，上证综指在散户兴趣激增之际陷入低迷：上周A股交易账户开立数目达到2009年8月以来的最高位。新账户数增长与上证综指之间的关联今年已显著减弱。
上海股市的交易仍不能被视为一种合理的股价形成机制。外资机构得到的配额总量只有区区190亿美元，不到上证综指总市值的1%。估值水平仍似乎表明，投资者倾向于追逐走势而非价值：上证综指三分之一成份股的往绩市盈率超过50，而美国标普500指数每21只成份股中只有1只达到这样的估值水平。但是，上海股市正在一步一步走向成熟。
Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者/和风
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035610
Investors can take some comfort in the 10 per cent fall in the Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) over the past week. Yes, the gloom appears to have sparked fear in markets elsewhere. But if, as seems likely, the slump has been prompted by the spectre of Chinese price controls – where companies are forced not to raise prices, or to run certain operations at a loss in the national interest – that is more encouraging. It suggests that the index, which has historically borne a close relationship to domestic liquidity, may be becoming a better reflection of the market’s best estimate of earnings growth prospects.
There is other evidence of a maturing market. Consider the A/H spread – or the price of H-shares in Hong Kong, relative to their equivalent A-shares in Shanghai. From 2006 to 2009, mainland stocks traded at an average premium of 31 per cent to the more liberal offshore market. Since the beginning of this year, though, the average gap has narrowed to 6 per cent; since July it has fluctuated between a premium and a discount. By the same token, it is worth noting that the SCI is sagging even as retail interest has surged: last week’s new A-share stock account openings were the highest since August 2009. The correlation between the growth in new accounts and the index itself has noticeably weakened this year.
Shanghai trading cannot yet be considered a rational mechanism for pricing shares. The total allocation to foreign institutions is a miserly $19bn, less than 1 per cent of the SCI’s capitalisation. Valuations still suggest a preponderance of investors chasing momentum over value: every third stock on the SCI has a trailing price/earnings ratio above 50, compared to one in 21 on the S&P 500. But little by little, Shanghai is getting there.
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