Lex专栏:中国的政策困境 Chinese inflation

 

中国也许正向世界展示如何进行宏观审慎监管，也许正滑向乱糟糟的崩盘。

上周五，中国央行做出了今年第五次上调存款准备金率(RRR)的决定，将存款准备金率上调了50个基点，至18%。这将会使3500亿元人民币——相当于今年贷款额度的5%——留在银行中，与经济隔离。此次收紧是对10月份令人担忧的4.4%通胀率的回应。10%的食品通胀率尤其令人担心，因为中国相当大部分人口仍生活在温饱边缘。预计政府还将实施反哄抬物价的价格管制。

中国政府本来可以更大胆一些。预计在本次上调存款准备金率后，政府将会把2011年的放贷目标下调12%，但削减后的放贷额度仍将占到预期国内生产总值(GDP)的15%，比2007年的14%要高。信贷刹车仅仅被轻轻踏了一下，而非一踩到底。

为何要保持警戒？通胀远非北京的唯一担忧。政府还需要推动增长、创造就业、努力避免贸易伙伴翻脸、打击房地产投机、阻止银行发生巨额亏损。这份任务清单上的一些条目近乎矛盾。政府将很难避免在这些关键目标中的某一个上失手，也许引发接二连三的困境。

北京的两难政策处境对全球有着警示意义。中国的宏观管理本该比西方国家容易。它拥有强大的威权政府、一个基本上受政府控制的银行体系、巨额的外汇储备、快速增长的势头，后者能迅速覆盖金融错误。如果连中国都无法微调它的经济，那么，危机后各界对官方有能力指引信贷体系的信心也许错置了。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/董琴

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035677

 

 

China may be showing the world how to do macroprudential regulation. Alternatively, it might be heading for a messy crash.

On Friday, the People’s Bank of China made this year’s fifth increase in the required reserve ratio, by 50 basis points to 18 per cent. This will keep Rmb350bn – the equivalent of 5 per cent of this year’s lending quota – inside the banks and out of the economy. The tightening is a response to the worrying 4.4 per cent inflation rate in October. The 10 per cent food inflation rate is of special concern, since much of the population still lives close to the edge. Anti-gouging price controls are also expected.

The government could be more aggressive. The higher RRR is expected to be followed by a 12 per cent cut in the lending target for 2011, but at Rmb6bn it would be 15 per cent of expected gross domestic product, higher than the 14 per cent ratio of 2007. The credit brakes are being tapped, not slammed.

The reason for caution? Inflation is far from the only worry in Beijing. The government also needs to promote growth, generate jobs, keep trading partners from getting nasty, discourage property speculation and avoid huge losses at banks. Some items on the list are almost contradictory. It will be hard to avoid a slip-up on one of those crucial goals, perhaps leading to a spiral of woe.

Beijing’s policy squirming carries a global lesson. China should find macromanagement easier than western countries. It has a powerful autocratic government, a largely state-controlled bank system, a huge reserve of foreign currencies and the momentum of rapid growth, which quickly covers over financial mistakes. If even China cannot fine-tune its economy, the widespread post-crisis confidence in the authorities guiding the credit system may be misplaced.

 

http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001035677/en