本
周新华社发布的一篇长篇评论中，中国国务院副总理李克强对政府未来五年的经济战略做出了解释，这是迄今为止对十二五规划的最佳解释之一。中国政府目前正在制定2011年到2015年的十二五规划，而领导人已经列出了十二五规划的大致主题。
Zuma Press
李克强
中国为何需要一份新规划？
1）美国经济状况不佳，中国经济的增长不能再依赖于出口。"主要发达国家失业率居高不下，消费不振，房地产、金融等支柱产业在危机中受到重创，新的经济增长点短期内还难以形成……世界经济缓慢增长，全球需求结构明显变化，对我国稳定和拓展外需、保持经济平稳较快发展形成新的压力。"
2)在向新兴科技的转变过程中，发展中国家有陷于落后的风险。"绿色科技、低碳技术等正在兴起，抢占未来发展制高点的竞争日益激烈。在有些领域，新兴经济体与发达国家的差距相对较小。在这样的背景下，只要我们把握趋势、应对得当，就可能抢占先机、赢得优势，推动实现跨越式发展。否则，就会贻误时机，难以实现赶超。"
3)中国以前维持快速经济增长的战略已不再适用。"在经济持续发展中瓶颈制约明显加大，传统的增长模式难以为继。主要表现在：能源资源和生态环境约束强化，节能减排任务艰巨；国际收支不平衡，外贸增长方式粗放；投资和消费关系失衡，消费率偏低。"
4)随着生活水平的改善，中国公民的要求越来越高。"群众的温饱问题基本解决后，对提高生活水平和改善生活质量的愿望明显增强……在就业、教育、住房、医疗卫生、环境保护、社会保障等关系群众切身利益的领域，还存在不少难点和焦点问题，基本公共服务的可及性、公平性仍然不够。"
十二五规划的重要政策有哪些？
1）扩大国内消费以弥补出口的削弱。"扩大内需是我国经济发展的基本立足点和长期战略方针，也是转方式、调结构的重要任务。从国际经验看，以内需为主导，是大国经济发展的必然途径。我国人口众多，地域辽阔，内需潜力是促进我国长期平稳较快发展的最大优势……核心是要大力提高居民消费能力，建立起促进消费和扩大内需的长效机制，鼓励和引导居民消费。"
2）重新定位投资重点，避免投资过度，提高效率。"中国正处于经济快速发展的阶段，需要保持适当的投资增长速度，但如果投资率过高，各方面条件难以承受。应当把政策重点放在优化投资结构、提高投资效益上，把增投资与扩消费、惠民生更多地结合起来，实现一举多得。"
3）鼓励更多农业人口向城镇永久性转移，从而提高工资水平和推动内需。"城镇化是关系现代化全局的重大战略，是扩大内需、激发经济社会发展活力的重要引擎……我们应该积极稳妥地推进城镇化，把符合落户条件的农业转移人口逐步转为城镇居民，在城镇化中释放内需潜力、促进城乡结构调整。"
4）加速新科技发展，促进中国制造业基础结构升级。"我们应该充分发挥科技创新对产业优化升级的驱动作用，强化企业在技术创新中的主体地位，引导资金、人才、技术等创新资源向企业集聚，推进产学研战略联盟，提升产业核心竞争力。要着眼于国际国内两个市场，继续发挥我国比较优势，用高新技术和先进适用技术改造提升传统产业。"
5）将政府提供的教育、医疗、就业和住房补助等基本公共服务向全民扩展。"要把促进基本公共服务逐步均等化作为社会建设的重要目标……建立健全符合国情、比较完整、覆盖城乡、可持续的基本公共服务体系，努力使发展成果惠及全体人民。做好这方面工作，应当区分"基本"和"非基本"两类性质的服务。基本的部分属于公共产品，保基本是政府义不容辞的责任……非基本的部分，应当交给市场和社会。"
Andrew Batson
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
http://www.cn.wsj.com/gb/20101118/rlw181156.asp?source=UpFeature
In a lengthy commentarypublished by the Xinhua news agency this week, Vice Premier Li Keqiang has given one of the best explanations so far of the government's economic strategy for the coming five years. China's government is now in the process of drafting its twelfth five-year plan, covering the years 2011 through 2015, and the leadership has already outlined its broad themes.
Considered the most likely candidate to take over the reins of government from current Premier Wen Jiabao in the 2012-2013 leadership transition, Li will likely play a central role in ensuring the plan's targets are implemented. So his views count. Below we summarize Li's main points by translating selected portions of his commentary.
On why China needs a new plan:
1) The U.S. economy is in bad shape, and China can't count on exports for growth anymore. 'The major developed economies have high unemployment and weak consumption, their pillar industries of real estate and finance were badly hit by the financial crisis, and it will be difficult to create new growth industries in the short termâ ¦The slow growth in the global economy and the clear changes in the structure of demand have put new pressure on our country's ability to stabilize and expand external demand and maintain steady and relatively fast economic growth.'
2) Developing countries risk being left behind in the shift to new technologies. 'As the green economy, low-carbon technologies, etc. emerge, there is increasingly fierce competition to seize the commanding heights of development in the future. In some sectors, the gap between emerging economies and developed countries is relatively small. If we understand the trend and respond appropriately, we can seize the initiative, gain an advantage and develop by leaps and bounds. But if we miss the opportunity, it will be difficult to catch up.'
3) China's previous strategies for maintaining rapid economic growth won't work for much longer. 'With bottlenecks and constraints to sustainable economic development clearly growing, the traditional growth model will be difficult to sustain. This is mainly reflected in: tougher constraints from energy, resources and the environment, making energy saving and emissions reduction an arduous task; the imbalance of international payments and the high-volume growth pattern of foreign trade; the imbalance between investment and consumption and the low rate of consumption.'
4) China's citizens are becoming increasingly demanding as their living standards improve. 'After having basically solved the problem of sufficient food, clothing and shelter, people's desire to raise their living standards and improve their quality of life has clearly strengthenedâ ¦ In employment, education, housing, health, environmental protection, social security and other areas tied to people's basic interests, there are still many difficulties and problems, and the accessibility and fairness of basic public services is not sufficient.'
On the key policies in the new plan:
1) Boost domestic consumer spending in order to compensate for weaker exports. 'Expanding domestic demand is the basic stance and long-term strategic plan for China's economic development, as well as an important task of structural adjustment. According to international experience, to be led by domestic demand is the inevitable path for a big country's economic development. China's large population, vast territory, and potential domestic demand are its biggest advantages in promoting steady and rapid economic growth over the long termâ ¦ The key is to greatly increase households' ability to consume and establish an enduring and effective mechanism to boost consumption and expand domestic demand.'
2) Reorient investment priorities to avoid excesses and boost efficiency. 'China is in a stage of rapid economic development and needs to maintain an appropriate growth rate of investment, but if the investment rate is too high, it becomes unacceptable in various ways. Policy should be focused on optimizing the investment structure, raising the efficiency of investment, and making increases in investment more integrated with expanding consumption and raising living standards.'
3) Encourage more permanent migration by rural people to urban areas, in order to raise incomes and boost domestic demand. 'Urbanization is an important element in the overall strategy of modernization, and an important engine for expanding domestic demand and stimulating the vitality of economic and social developmentâ ¦ We should actively and steadily promote urbanization, take those rural migrant workers who meet the requirements to settle down and gradually transform them into urban residents, and release the potential of domestic demand in the process of urbanization.'
4) Accelerate the development of new technologies to upgrade China's manufacturing base. 'We should give full play to technological innovation as the driving force for the industrial upgrading, strengthen the central position of corporations in technological innovation, and guide capital, talent, technology and other innovative resources into concentrate in into corporations, while promoting strategic alliances in production and research to enhance the core competitiveness of industries. We should focus on both the international and domestic markets, continue to make use of China's comparative advantage, and use new high technologies and advanced applied technologies to transform and upgrade traditional industries.'
5) Expand basic social services â ' education, health, employment and housing assistance â ' provided by the government to the entire population. 'We should make advancing the gradual equalization of basic public services an important goalâ ¦ [and] work hard to ensure the fruits of development are shared with the whole people, by establishing a sound, sustainable system for basic public services that suits our national conditions, is fairly comprehensive and covers urban and rural areas. To do this work well, we need clearly distinguish between 'basic' and 'non-essential' services. Basic services are public goods that the government is obligated to provideâ ¦ The 'non-essential' part can handled by the market and society.'
Andrew Batson
Considered the most likely candidate to take over the reins of government from current Premier Wen Jiabao in the 2012-2013 leadership transition, Li will likely play a central role in ensuring the plan's targets are implemented. So his views count. Below we summarize Li's main points by translating selected portions of his commentary.
On why China needs a new plan:
1) The U.S. economy is in bad shape, and China can't count on exports for growth anymore. 'The major developed economies have high unemployment and weak consumption, their pillar industries of real estate and finance were badly hit by the financial crisis, and it will be difficult to create new growth industries in the short termâ ¦The slow growth in the global economy and the clear changes in the structure of demand have put new pressure on our country's ability to stabilize and expand external demand and maintain steady and relatively fast economic growth.'
2) Developing countries risk being left behind in the shift to new technologies. 'As the green economy, low-carbon technologies, etc. emerge, there is increasingly fierce competition to seize the commanding heights of development in the future. In some sectors, the gap between emerging economies and developed countries is relatively small. If we understand the trend and respond appropriately, we can seize the initiative, gain an advantage and develop by leaps and bounds. But if we miss the opportunity, it will be difficult to catch up.'
3) China's previous strategies for maintaining rapid economic growth won't work for much longer. 'With bottlenecks and constraints to sustainable economic development clearly growing, the traditional growth model will be difficult to sustain. This is mainly reflected in: tougher constraints from energy, resources and the environment, making energy saving and emissions reduction an arduous task; the imbalance of international payments and the high-volume growth pattern of foreign trade; the imbalance between investment and consumption and the low rate of consumption.'
4) China's citizens are becoming increasingly demanding as their living standards improve. 'After having basically solved the problem of sufficient food, clothing and shelter, people's desire to raise their living standards and improve their quality of life has clearly strengthenedâ ¦ In employment, education, housing, health, environmental protection, social security and other areas tied to people's basic interests, there are still many difficulties and problems, and the accessibility and fairness of basic public services is not sufficient.'
On the key policies in the new plan:
1) Boost domestic consumer spending in order to compensate for weaker exports. 'Expanding domestic demand is the basic stance and long-term strategic plan for China's economic development, as well as an important task of structural adjustment. According to international experience, to be led by domestic demand is the inevitable path for a big country's economic development. China's large population, vast territory, and potential domestic demand are its biggest advantages in promoting steady and rapid economic growth over the long termâ ¦ The key is to greatly increase households' ability to consume and establish an enduring and effective mechanism to boost consumption and expand domestic demand.'
2) Reorient investment priorities to avoid excesses and boost efficiency. 'China is in a stage of rapid economic development and needs to maintain an appropriate growth rate of investment, but if the investment rate is too high, it becomes unacceptable in various ways. Policy should be focused on optimizing the investment structure, raising the efficiency of investment, and making increases in investment more integrated with expanding consumption and raising living standards.'
3) Encourage more permanent migration by rural people to urban areas, in order to raise incomes and boost domestic demand. 'Urbanization is an important element in the overall strategy of modernization, and an important engine for expanding domestic demand and stimulating the vitality of economic and social developmentâ ¦ We should actively and steadily promote urbanization, take those rural migrant workers who meet the requirements to settle down and gradually transform them into urban residents, and release the potential of domestic demand in the process of urbanization.'
4) Accelerate the development of new technologies to upgrade China's manufacturing base. 'We should give full play to technological innovation as the driving force for the industrial upgrading, strengthen the central position of corporations in technological innovation, and guide capital, talent, technology and other innovative resources into concentrate in into corporations, while promoting strategic alliances in production and research to enhance the core competitiveness of industries. We should focus on both the international and domestic markets, continue to make use of China's comparative advantage, and use new high technologies and advanced applied technologies to transform and upgrade traditional industries.'
5) Expand basic social services â ' education, health, employment and housing assistance â ' provided by the government to the entire population. 'We should make advancing the gradual equalization of basic public services an important goalâ ¦ [and] work hard to ensure the fruits of development are shared with the whole people, by establishing a sound, sustainable system for basic public services that suits our national conditions, is fairly comprehensive and covers urban and rural areas. To do this work well, we need clearly distinguish between 'basic' and 'non-essential' services. Basic services are public goods that the government is obligated to provideâ ¦ The 'non-essential' part can handled by the market and society.'
Andrew Batson
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