中国将把飞机制造列为“国家战略性新兴产业”规划的基石，这一地位提升将确保波音(Boeing)和空客(Airbus)在中国国内那些羽翼未丰的竞争对手得到长期政府支持。
此举对全球两大飞机制造商不是好消息，它们本来就已经在准备迎接来自新兴市场对手的更激烈竞争。“与空客一起形成双头垄断的日子结束了，”波音民用飞机集团总裁兼首席执行官安波杰(Jim Albaugh) 6月份在巴黎航空展(Paris Air Show)上表示。
中国做出更加重视飞机开发的决定之前，曾在上月发生一起动车追尾事故，导致40人遇难，这件事削弱了公众对中国列车安全的信任，并对中国政府匆忙建设一个庞大高速铁路网的做法提出一串问号。
官方的《上海证券报》周四表示，北京方面即将宣布扶持国内飞机制造商的相关新法规，使它们能在未来20年里中国预期将购买的4000架飞机中占得更大供应份额。
中国去年宣布，将引导更多资金投入七个“国家战略性新兴产业”，并对其提供更全面的政策支持，这些产业中有好几个带有环保或高技术概念，如新能源汽车和生物科技。
在针对七个产业的最初规划中，航空航天被划在“高端装备制造”的类别内。高铁也被划归于那个类别。不过，《上海证券报》的报道称，飞机将是高端装备制造的“重要板块”；该文没有提及高铁。
中国飞机制造商已经得到充足的政府资金，同时，尽管动车事故后各方存在种种安全担忧，但政府对铁路的投资很可能也将保持强劲。
不过，政府的重点现在也许会开始向飞机产业转移。在7月份发生动车追尾灾难后，乘客们反映，京沪高铁的一等舱车厢几乎空无一人，而京沪航线的机票相当抢手。
中国在飞机制造方面迄今成就不大，因而确实需要额外提振。中国首架民用客机——中国商用飞机公司(Comac)研制的ARJ21支线飞机在2008年完成首飞，比原计划晚了三年。向客户的交货在去年进一步推迟，原因是该型飞机在地面测试期间发生机翼断裂。
国有的中国商用飞机公司负责推动中国的飞机研发，该公司还借助其C919窄体客机，试图以更直接的方式打破空客-波音的双头垄断。将与空客320和波音737展开直接竞争的C919型飞机，目前仍在研发中，按计划将于2016年开始交付客户。
过去20年里，欧美的航空航天及防务公司垄断了利润丰厚的窄体客机市场，但现在不仅面临中国制造商的挑战，还面临加拿大庞巴迪(Bombardier)的挑战。
《航空周刊》(Aviation Week)的中国航空航天业专家白广原(Bradley Perrett)表示，C919型飞机含有先进技术，其中不少产自国外，但由于中国商用飞机公司作为一家制造商还缺乏经验，因此该机的性能“不太可能达到最优”。多数分析师预期，政府支持将推动其在中国国内市场取得较好的销售业绩，但海外航空公司将不太愿意采用该机型。
“如果它的定价相当低——而这将涉及补贴的问题，那么它可能在海外找到市场，”白广原表示。
北京方面估计，未来20年期间，单是中国对商用飞机的需求就可能达到4800亿美元。
译者/和风
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001039981
China will make aircraft manufacturing a cornerstone of its “new strategic industry” plan, an upgrade in status that will lock in long-term government support for the nation’s fledgling rivals to Boeing and Airbus.
The move is troubling for the world’s two biggest aircraft-makers, which have already been bracing themselves for increased competition from emerging rivals. “The days of the duopoly with Airbus are over,” Jim Albaugh, head of Boeing’s civil aircraft division, said at the Paris Air Show in June.
China’s decision to place greater emphasis on aircraft development follows a bullet train crash that killed 40 people last month, undermining public trust in the country’s trains and questioning the government’s rush to build a sprawling, high-speed rail network.
Beijing is close to announcing new rules to help domestic aircraft manufacturers so they can provide a big slice of the 4,000 aircraft China is expected to buy over the next 20 years, the Shanghai Securities News, an official newspaper, said on Thursday.
China said last year it would direct more money and broader policy support at seven “new strategic industries”, many of which have an environmental or high-tech focus, such as alternative-fuel cars and biotechnology.
Aerospace was included in that initial seven-industry plan within the category of “high-end equipment manufacturing”. High-speed rail was also in that category. However, the Shanghai Securities News said aircraft would be “the most important part” of high-end equipment manufacturing and made no mention of high-speed rail.
Chinese aircraft manufacturers have already received ample state funding and, despite all the safety concerns following the accident, government investment in rail is likely to remain strong as well.
However, the balance might now begin to shift towards the aviation industry. In the wake of July’s rail disaster, passengers have reported that first-class carriages on the new bullet train line between Beijing and Shanghai have been nearly empty, while airline tickets between the two cities have been in high demand from travellers.
China’s aircraft ambitions could use an extra boost, having come up short so far. Its first passenger aircraft, the Comac ARJ21 regional jet, completed its maiden flight in 2008, three years behind schedule. Deliveries to customers were further delayed last year when the aircraft’s wing broke during ground-based testing.
The Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (Comac), the government-owned company driving China’s aircraft development, is also taking a more direct shot at breaking the Airbus-Boeing duopoly with its C919 narrow-body plane. Still in development, the first deliveries of the C919, which will compete against the Airbus 320 and the Boeing 737, are scheduled for 2016.
The European and US aerospace and defence companies have dominated the lucrative market for narrow-body aircraft over the past 20 years, but are now facing challenges not only from Chinese manufacturers but also from Bombardier of Canada.
Bradley Perrett, a Chinese aerospace expert at Aviation Week, said that the C919 contained advanced technology, much of it foreign made, but that performance was “not likely to be optimal” because of Comac’s inexperience as a manufacturer. Most analysts expect state backing to drive good sales in China but predict that foreign carriers will be more reluctant to use the model.
“If it is priced cheaply, and this is where subsidies come into question, it could find a market outside China,” said Perrett.
Boeing has estimated that demand for commercial aircraft from China alone could be worth $480bn over the next two decades.
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