2011年2月28日

伯克希尔大丰收 巴菲特欲增加收购 Berkshire's Buffett Eyes More Major Deals as Earnings Surge

菲特说,伯克希尔未来的投资将有“压倒性的”部分会在美国。在2011年的80亿美元资本开支计划(巴菲特说这是一个创纪录的水平)中,伯克希尔将把较去年增加的20亿美元全部投资在美国。他说,美国有着大量的机会。


伯克希尔旗下的保险公司所募集的保费要到多年以后才会需要用于支付保险赔偿,在那之前这些资金可供巴菲特用于投资。巴菲特说这些资金可自由流动,周六他还报告说,资金池的规模从上年的630亿美元增加到了660亿美元。保险业务的投资收入约为52亿美元,2009年为55亿美元。

在信中,巴菲特探讨了未来一年的情况,他和伯克希尔副董事长芒格(Charlie Munger)认为将是“正常的一年”。 今年的商业大环境将好于去年,但比不上2005和2006年,也不会有可能导致保险业务大额支出的重大灾难性事件。巴菲特说,在这样的年头,伯克希尔资产剔除资本收益或损失的税前收益有望达到170亿美元,税后收益120亿美元

去年8月已届80高龄的巴菲特还在信中提到接班计划。除担任伯克希尔的首席执行长和董事长外,巴菲特同时还是首席投资长,负责公司逾1,500亿美元现金、股票、债券以及其他资产的投资组合。他曾说过,在他去世后,他执掌伯克希尔的职责将一分为三,设立单独的董事长、首席执行长以及一位到多位首席投资长。

Bloomberg News
沃伦•巴菲特
伯克希尔不久前聘任前对冲基金经理库姆斯(Todd Combs)任投资经理,在此之前经历了漫长的搜寻,想找到可能接替巴菲特任伯克希尔首席投资长的候选人。巴菲特写到,许多投资经理近来的投资纪录都不错,但伯克希尔想要的是对风险有深刻认识、十分敏感的人,并能预期从未发生过的事件的影响。

巴菲特写到,芒格和我见到库姆斯时,我们就知道他符合我们的要求。他说,40岁的库姆斯最开始将管理10亿至30亿美元的资金,这个额度可以每年调整。虽然库姆斯专注的重点将会是股票,但并不仅限于这一种投资类型。

对于有能力的投资经理的搜寻尚未结束。巴菲特说,如果找到合适的人选,伯克希尔最终可能还会增加一到两名投资经理,这些经理的薪资将与其业绩挂钩。

与此前的多年一样,巴菲特信中有很大一部分内容是称赞伯克希尔各个运营机构的管理人员,其中一些人被关注该公司的人士认为有可能接替CEO一职。

巴菲特写到,对于索科尔(David Sokol)所获成就和重要性,他“怎么说都不过分”。索科尔是公共事业公司中美能源(MidAmerican Energy)的董事长,并任飞机租赁公司NetJets Inc.的首席执行长,扭转了后者的亏损局面。

他指出,掌管汽车保险商Geico的奈斯利(Tony Nicely)让这家公司的市场份额从1993年他加入公司时的2%增长到了8.8%,还说自己欠了奈斯利一个大人情。负责伯克希尔利润丰厚的再保险业务的杰恩(Ajit Jain)则为伯克希尔的价值增加了数十亿美元。巴菲特不无幽默地写到,就连能克制超人的氪石对杰恩也丝毫无损。

巴菲特明确表示,他没有放弃任何一项职责的计划。提及投资组合时他写到,只要我还是CEO,我就会继续管理伯克希尔所持的绝大部分资产,包括债券和证券。

他说,等他和现年87岁的芒格都不在了,伯克希尔的各位投资经理将负责整个投资组合,届时具体方式将由伯克希尔的CEO和董事会决定。他补充说,董事会将决定任何重大收购。

巴菲特在其备受关注的年度致股东信中说,他已经准备好“进行更多的重大收购”。周六,伯克希尔哈撒韦公布2010年业绩,盈利激增61%,现金储备也有增加。

巴菲特在伯克希尔的年报里附带的致股东信中说,我们准备好了,我们这把猎象枪已再次上膛,我那准备扣动扳机的手指正在发痒。

受铁路公司Burlington Northern Santa Fe业绩提振,伯克希尔2010年的净收入高达130亿美元。伯克希尔去年2月以270亿美元的价格收购了Burlington Northern Santa Fe。在致股东信中,巴菲特将这笔交易称作“2010年的亮点”,并说效果比他预计的更好。去年,Burlington Northern Santa Fe的营业收益为45亿美元,净收益为25亿美元,比2009年上涨约40%。

尽管近年来伯克希尔在铁路和公用事业机构等资本密集型企业上花费了数百亿美元,但保险等其它业务仍然为巴菲特创造了大量现金,使其能够投资金融资产,收购更多的企业。截至2010年底,伯克希尔的现金以及现金等价物的总额为380亿美元,是自2007年以来最高的年终数额。巴菲特说,现在伯克希尔一个月的收益约为10亿美元。

由于伯克希尔试图在一个不断扩张的业务基础上保持增长,巴菲特必须找到更多的渠道进行投资,以实现他反复强调的增长目标:伯克希尔的价值增长速度要快于标普500指数的上涨速度。

2010年,伯克希尔的账面价值增加了13%,至美股95,453美元,而去年标普500指数的收益率为15.1%。这是连续第二年,也是巴菲特执掌伯克希尔46年来第八次公司的账面价值增长率低于标普500指数的涨幅,标普500指数的收益包括红利。账面价值等于资产减去负债,是对公司实际价值或“内在价值”的粗略估计。

巴菲特总是重复过去几年说的话,说伯克希尔的未来业绩是不可能复制它过去的辉煌了。近年来相对于标普500指数,伯克希尔的业绩只能算是令人满意。对此巴菲特说,我们要强调的是,丰年是一去不复还了。我们目前管理的巨额资本消除了业绩超出预期的可能。

巴菲特说,如果随着时间的推移,伯克希尔的业绩能够强于市场表现(就像股东们所期望的那样),那么这很可能是在股市行情较差的年份伯

克希尔能创造出相对较好的业绩,而在行情较好的年份忍受较差的业绩。

去年股东们没有失望。伯克希尔的A类股票上涨了21%,截至年底时伯克希尔的市值约2,000亿美元。今年以来这支股票累计上涨了近6%,周五收盘时报127,550美元。

伯克希尔的巨额投资组合中的股票持续复苏,受此提振,伯克希尔的账面价值在2010年增加了262亿美元。伯克希尔持仓量最大的两支股票富国银行(Wells Fargo & Co.)和可口可乐(Coca-Cola Co.)去年均上涨了15%,伯克希尔持有这两支股票的账面价值已经超过110亿美元。

股票和铁路公司Burlington Northern并非投资组合中惟一创造收益的组成部分。

在衰退中遭受销售额下滑和利润缩水的伯克希尔所持有的一批企业现在似乎开始复苏。巴菲特透露,包括Fruit of the Loom、位于以色列的工具制造商Iscar以及电子元器件分销商TTI在内的企业业绩均有改善。

由于借力经济复苏,同去年相比,2010年伯克希尔旗下的制造业、服务业和零售业的净收益翻了不止一番,增至25亿美元。伯克希尔的年报说,随着时间的推移,尽管不均,但仍预计总体经济形势将继续逐步改善。

SERENA NG / ERIK HOLM

(本文版权归道琼斯公司所有,未经许可不得翻译或转载。)


Mr. Buffett said an 'overwhelming' part of the future investments of Berkshire's businesses would be in the United States. Of $8 billion in capital spending slated for 2011, which his letter called a record amount, Berkshire will spend all of a $2 billion increase from last year in the U.S. He said the U.S. offers 'an abundance' of opportunity.

Berkshire's insurance units give Mr. Buffett money to invest until the premiums collected are needed to pay claims years in the future. Mr. Buffett calls these funds 'float,' and he reported Saturday that the pool of funds swelled to about $66 billion from $63 billion a year earlier. Investment income from the insurance operations was about $5.2 billion, compared to $5.5 billion in 2009.

In the letter, Mr. Buffett discussed what he and Berkshire vice-chairman Charlie Munger would regard as a 'normal year' for Berkshire. That would be one with a general business climate better than last year's, but weaker than 2005 or 2006, and one without a large catastrophic event that could trigger large payouts from its insurance business. In such a year, Berkshire's assets could expect to earn about $17 billion in pre-tax and $12 billion in after-tax earnings, excluding capital gains or losses, he said.
Poll

Mr. Buffett, who turned 80 last August, also touched on succession planning in his letter. Besides being Berkshire's chief executive and chairman, Mr. Buffett is also its chief investment officer with responsibility for the company's over $150 billion investment portfolio of cash, stocks, bonds and other assets. He has said that when he dies, his job at the helm of Berkshire will be split into three, with a separate chairman, chief executive, and one or more chief investment officers.

Berkshire recently hired former hedge fund manager Todd Combs as an investment manager following a lengthy search for candidates that could potentially step into Mr. Buffett's role as Berkshire's chief investment officer. Many money managers had good investing records recently, but Berkshire has been looking for individuals who have a deep understanding and sensitivity to risk and can anticipate the effect of events that have never occurred, Mr. Buffett wrote.

'When Charlie and I met Todd Combs, we knew he fit our requirements,' Mr. Buffett noted. He said the 40-year-old would initially manage funds in the range of $1 billion to $3 billion, an amount that can be reset annually. While Mr. Combs's focus will be on stocks, he isn't restricted to that type of investment, Mr. Buffett noted.

The search for competent money managers isn't over. Mr. Buffett said Berkshire may, over time, add one or two investment managers 'if we find the right individuals,' and the managers' compensation will be tied to their performance.

As in previous years, Mr. Buffett devoted portions of his annual letter to praising the managers of Berkshire's operating units, including some individuals company watchers believe are candidates for the Berskhire CEO job.

Mr. Buffett wrote that he 'can't overstate the breadth and importance' of achievements by David Sokol, chairman of utility operator MidAmerican Energy and chief executive of NetJets Inc., who turned the fractional jet ownership business around from a loss.

He noted that Tony Nicely, who runs auto insurer Geico, grew its market share to 8.8% from 2% when he joined the company in 1993, adding he owes Mr. Nicely a huge debt. And Ajit Jain, head of Berkshire Hathaway's highly profitable reinsurance business, 'has added a great many billions of dollars to the value of Berkshire. Even kryptonite bounces off Ajit,' Mr. Buffett quipped.

Mr. Buffett made it clear he has no plans to relinquish any of his jobs. Referring to the investment portfolio, he wrote: 'As long as I am CEO, I will continue to manage the great majority of Berkshire's holdings, both bonds and equities.'

He said that when he and Mr. Munger, 87, are no longer around, Berkshire's investment managers will have responsibility for the entire portfolio in a manner then set by Berkshire's CEO and board of directors. The board, he added, 'will make the call on any major acquisition.'

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett, in his widely followed annual letter to shareholders, said he is prepared for 'more major acquisitions' as the conglomerate on Saturday reported a 61% jump in 2010 earnings and a growing cash hoard.

'We're prepared. Our elephant gun has been reloaded, and my trigger finger is itchy,' the billionaire investor said in the letter accompanying Berkshire's annual report.

The Omaha, Neb. company's 2010 net income of $13 billion received a big boost from railroad operator Burlington Northern Santa Fe, which Berkshire acquired for roughly $27 billion last February. In his letter, Mr. Buffett called the deal 'the highlight of 2010' and said it's working out 'even better' than he had expected, The railroad business generated $4.5 billion in operating earnings last year and $2.5 billion in net earnings, up about 40% from 2009.

While Berkshire has spent tens of billions of dollars on capital-intensive businesses like railroads and utility operators in recent years, its other businesses, such as insurance, are still generating large amounts of cash for Mr. Buffett to invest in financial assets and to acquire more businesses. At the end of 2010, Berkshire's pile of cash and cash equivalents stood at $38 billion, the highest year-end amount since 2007. Berkshire's businesses, Mr. Buffett noted, are now earning about $1 billion a month.

As Berkshire tries to keep growing from an ever-expanding base, Mr. Buffett has to find more avenues to invest to achieve his long-stated goal of increasing the company's value faster than the rate of growth in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index.

WSJ's Jamie Heller and Erik Holm discuss the implications of the newly released letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders from billionaire investor Warren Buffett.

Berkshire's book value, a measure of assets minus liabilities that is a rough proxy for the company's actual, or 'intrinsic' value, grew 13% in 2010 to $95,453 per share, versus last year's 15.1% return of the S&P 500. It was the second year in a row, and only the eighth time in Mr. Buffett's 46 years of running Berkshire, that the company's book value change didn't beat the index, whose returns include dividends. Berkshire is now a component of that index following last year's B-share stock split and purchase of Burlington Northern.

Mr. Buffett repeated a refrain from past years, stating that Berkshire's future performance is unlikely to replicate its past. Noting the company's 'now only satisfactory' performance against the S&P in recent years, Mr. Buffett wrote: 'The bountiful years, we want to emphasize, will never return. The huge sums of capital we currently manage eliminate any chance of exceptional performance.'
Berkshire's Annual Report

Mr. Buffett said if Berkshire over time outperforms the market, as shareholders should expect from the company, it will likely be from producing better relative results in bad years for the stock market while suffering poorer results in stronger years.

Shareholders last year were not disappointed. Berkshire's Class A shares gained 21% in 2010, giving the company a market value of roughly $200 billion at year end. The shares are up nearly 6% so far this year, closing at $127,550 on Friday.

Berkshire's book value, which grew $26.2 billion in 2010, was boosted by the continuing recovery of stocks in Berkshire's giant investment portfolio. Wells Fargo & Co. and Coca-Cola Co., Berkshire's largest equity positions, each rose 15% last year, and each holding is now valued at more than $11 billion.

Stocks and Burlington Northern weren't the only part of the portfolio that delivered.

A host of Berkshire-owned businesses that had suffered from declining sales and shrinking profits amid the recession now appear to be recovering. Mr. Buffett heralded improvements at units including Fruit of the Loom, Israel-based toolmaker Iscar and electronic-components distributor TTI.

Net earnings from Berkshire's manufacturing, service and retailing operations more than doubled from a year ago to $2.5 billion in 2010 as the businesses rode the recovering economy. The company's annual report said it anticipates that 'general economic conditions will continue to gradually improve, albeit unevenly, over time.'

SERENA NG / ERIK HOLM

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