精品投资银行Digi-Capital新发布的研究报告显示，受社交网络和手机平台推动，中国有望超越美国，成为全球最大的电子游戏市场。
报告预测，到2014年，全球网络游戏和手机游戏在行业总营收中的比重，将从三分之一增长到二分之一，达到440亿美元左右。
预计中国游戏销售额将在其中占据半壁江山——到2014年，中国游戏市场在全球游戏市场中的比重，将从目前的约12%上升至四分之一。在此期间，美国游戏市场在全球市场中的比重，将从26%下降到22%。
同时，由美国动视暴雪(Activision-Blizzard)和电子艺界(Electronic Arts)引领的传统游戏机游戏业务的销售额，将维持现状或出现下滑。
Digi-Capital董事总经理蒂姆•梅瑞尔(Tim Merel)表示：“我们预计，中国公司在2011年将成为游戏业的主要整合者。腾讯(Tencent) 2月份宣布收购Riot Games，就是更多收购活动即将来临的征兆。”
腾讯在国内已拥有大量网络游戏玩家——高峰期的同时在线用户达到2000万。梅瑞尔预测，受风险投资涌入的推动，2014年前，网络/手机游戏的复合年增长率将达到18%。
他还指出，腾讯、盛大(Shanda)和巨人网络(Giant Interactive)等公司网络游戏的毛利率为50%，而一款畅销游戏机游戏所需要的投资高达2000万美元。这意味着，只有这款游戏的销量达到50万至100万，才能勉强维持收支平衡。
难怪风险投资资金正大量涌向网络/手机游戏业的潜在赢家。Digi-Capital表示，去年的融资额回升至2007年的水平，较2009年增长了52%。
盛大、搜狐畅游(Changyou.com)和巨人网络等中国游戏公司的市值已达数十亿美元。
梅瑞尔表示：“腾讯的市值已大大超过动视暴雪、电子艺界、GamesStop、Take2、THQ、雅达利(Atari)、Game Group和育碧(Ubisoft)市值的总和”，约为500亿美元左右。
因此他预计，未来几年，随着亚洲公司走出国门，它们将成为国际整合主要的推动者。
译者/何黎
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001037139#s=p
Powered by social networks and mobiles, Chinese video games are set to topple America’s lead as the world’s largest gaming market, according to research by Digi-Capital, a boutique investment bank.
Its new report predicts that revenue from online and mobile games will grow from a third to a half of the industry’s total revenues, at around $44bn, by 2014.
Within that, China is predicted to make up almost half of sales, meaning the Chinese games market will be a quarter of the world’s total by 2014, from around 12 per cent today. Over the same period, the US’s share of the games market will fall from 26 per cent to 22 per cent.
Meanwhile, sales of traditional console games – the part of the business led by Activision-Blizzard and Electronic Arts– will be flat or even down.
“We expect to see Chinese companies as major games consolidators in 2011,” says Tim Merel, managing director of Digi-Capital. “Tencent’s Riot Games acquisition announced in February is a portent of more to come.”
Tencent’s domestic market already delivers huge volumes of online gamers – 20m simultaneous players at peak time. Mr Merel predicts an 18 per cent compound annual growth rate for online and mobile games until 2014, powered by an influx of venture-capital investment.
He contrasts the 50 per cent gross margins enjoyed in online games from the likes of Tencent, Shanda and Giant Interactive with the $20m investments required to make a blockbuster console game, which needs to sell between 500,000 and 1m units just to break even.
Little wonder, then, that venture-capital investment is swinging behind the likely winners in online and mobile gaming. Fundraisings returned to 2007 levels last year, Digi-Capital says, up 52 per cent on 2009.
Chinese games companies such as Shanda, ChangYou.com and Giant are already achieving billion-dollar stock-market valuations.
“Tencent’s market cap is substantially more than Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts, GamesStop, Take2, THQ, Atari, Game Group and Ubisoft combined,” Mr Merel says, at around $50bn.
As such, he expects Asian companies to drive more of the international consolidation as they push outside their home markets in the coming years.
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