鉴
于中国目前已被正式确认为世界第二大经济体，接下来的问题是：如果中国真的有一天能成为世界头号经济体，那么它何时会将美国从世界第一经济大国的宝座上赶下来。再有一个问题就是：如果中国成为世界头号经济大国，人民币届时将扮演何种角色？
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伊藤隆敏写道：中国在2027年之前成为世界头号经济体似乎是确定无疑之事。
与彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的萨伯拉曼尼安(Arvind Subramanian)等人相比，伊藤隆敏对中国的前景更为乐观。萨伯拉曼尼安认为中国经济规模将在2030年前后超过美国。鉴于中国的人口大约是美国的四倍，中国的经济规模要想超过美国，中国的人均GDP需略微超过美国的四分之一。中国目前的人均GDP是美国的十一分之一。
中国成为世界最大经济体对人民币意味着什么？2011年，人民币占世界外汇交易总量的大约0.2%，甚至落在匈牙利福林之后。饱受各方批评的美元是世界交易量最大的货币，占据了全球外汇交易量的绝大部分，欧元的交易量虽然在全球各种货币中排名第二，但数量远逊于美元。
伊藤隆敏没有对人民币在货币交易量排名中将以多快的速度上升作出预测，但他确实说过人民币在亚太地区有重要影响。他说，在人民币上一次发生汇率波动的2005至2008年期间，新加坡元、泰铢、马来西亚林吉特和菲律宾比索的汇率都或多或少与人民币汇率发生了联动。
伊藤隆敏说，鉴于中国正努力扩大人民币在海外的使用，类似的现象目前将会发生。他写道：人民币朝着至少成为本地区重要货币、并最终成为全球性重要货币的进程似乎已经开始了。
Bob Davis
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
With China now officially confirmed as the world's second largest economy, the question is when â ' if ever â ' it will become number one and force the U.S. to eat its dust . A secondary question: What will be the role of the yuan if China takes the top spot?
Takatoshi Ito, an economist at Tokyo University, thinks China's heading to the top fairly quickly. Writing in the December Asian Economic Policy Review, a publication that sometimes gets overlooked on the academic circuit, he calculates that China should pass the U.S. sometime between 2021 and 2027, even if Chinese growth rates slow. The one wild card: China slips into a Japan-like lost decade , which he considers a low probability event.
'China as number one before 2027 seems to be a certainty,' he wrote.
He's more optimistic about China than others, including Arvind Subramanian, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who figures the cross-over point will be around 2030. With four times the. U.S. population, China needs a GDP per capita of slightly more than one-fourth the U.S. to push ahead. Currently, China's GDP per capita is one-eleventh the level of the U.S.
What does the number one ranking mean for the yuan? In 2011, the yuan accounted for roughly 0.2% for foreign exchange transactions, just behind the Hungarian forint. The much-criticized dollar ranked first, accounting for the majority of transactions, while the euro was a distant number two.
Mr. Ito doesn't make any forecast about how rapidly the yuan will climb on the forex charts. But he does say the yuan has a big footprint regionally. The last time the yuan floated somewhat, from 2005 to 2008, he says the Singaporean dollar, Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit and Philippine peso moved more or less in lockstep.
He figures something similar will happen now, given China's efforts to have the yuan used more internationally. 'The process toward at least becoming a regional key currency, and eventually the international key current, seems to have started,' he wrote.
Bob Davis
Takatoshi Ito, an economist at Tokyo University, thinks China's heading to the top fairly quickly. Writing in the December Asian Economic Policy Review, a publication that sometimes gets overlooked on the academic circuit, he calculates that China should pass the U.S. sometime between 2021 and 2027, even if Chinese growth rates slow. The one wild card: China slips into a Japan-like lost decade , which he considers a low probability event.
'China as number one before 2027 seems to be a certainty,' he wrote.
He's more optimistic about China than others, including Arvind Subramanian, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who figures the cross-over point will be around 2030. With four times the. U.S. population, China needs a GDP per capita of slightly more than one-fourth the U.S. to push ahead. Currently, China's GDP per capita is one-eleventh the level of the U.S.
What does the number one ranking mean for the yuan? In 2011, the yuan accounted for roughly 0.2% for foreign exchange transactions, just behind the Hungarian forint. The much-criticized dollar ranked first, accounting for the majority of transactions, while the euro was a distant number two.
Mr. Ito doesn't make any forecast about how rapidly the yuan will climb on the forex charts. But he does say the yuan has a big footprint regionally. The last time the yuan floated somewhat, from 2005 to 2008, he says the Singaporean dollar, Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit and Philippine peso moved more or less in lockstep.
He figures something similar will happen now, given China's efforts to have the yuan used more internationally. 'The process toward at least becoming a regional key currency, and eventually the international key current, seems to have started,' he wrote.
Bob Davis
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