2
010年，中国超过日本成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体，这一历史性转折让这两个亚洲强国百感交集：经济长期停滞的日本带着自省情绪退居第三，日益崛起的中国感到自豪但也不掉以轻心，对肩负新的全球责任保持警惕。东京时间周一上午，日本政府正式揭晓了期待已久的悬念，宣布日本经济在去年最后三个月折合年率下降1.1%，而中国同期国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长9.8%。日本全年GDP是5.47万亿美元，比中国1月公布的5.88万亿美元低7%左右。
两国的经济总量都远远低于美国。日本和中国合起来也低于美国2010年14.66万亿美元的GDP。但这一消息标志着一个时代的结束。1967年日本超过当时的西德成为世界第二大经济体，自那以后的数十年一直不曾动摇。此次新排名标志著作为全球增长引擎的中国和日本分别开始崛起和衰落。
对美国来说，日本在某些方面是经济对手，但同时在地缘政治和军事方面一直是同盟。中国却在各方面都是潜在的挑战者。
中国的崛起一直是执政党中国共产党具有大众合法性的主要原因。但北京方面担心，接过经济强国的头衔会为中国这个在很多方面仍处于贫穷的国家带来不必要的责任。中国共产党的党报《人民日报》最近在其网站上刊登的一篇文章标题为《中国GDP首超日本成全球第二大经济体 但非第二经济强国》。
在日本，这一时刻被视为经济衰退延长的另一标志。东京都知事石原慎太郎（Shintaro Ishihara）最近接受记者采访时说，考虑到中国不断膨胀的GDP和较大的人口规模，日本自然是会被取代的。这位敢言的民族主义者一度是日本这个骄傲国家的自豪之声，他是1989年泡沫时代《日本可以说不》（The Japan That Can Say 'No'）一书的作者之一。现在，他谈论日本的排名时略带一丝伤感。他说，不幸的是，日本衰退的其他各种迹象在这种背景下太过突出。
两国对此复杂的反应表明一个事实，那就是中国在很多方面仍落后于日本，同时也表明两国的互相依赖性日益增长，使得它们既是对手也是伙伴。
中国人均收入仍是日本的十分之一。世界银行（World Bank）估计，超过1亿的中国人──几乎相当于日本总人口数──每天的生活费不足2美元。中国互联网搜索巨头百度公司首席执行长李彦宏指出，不可否认的令人尴尬的事实是，中国至今仍没有出现真正具有全球影响力的企业与中国日渐强盛的国力相匹配，例如丰田汽车公司（Toyota Motor Corp.）或索尼公司（Sony Corp.）。
正如很多日本商业领袖指出的，假如没有对华出口和中国游客的大批涌入，日本经济会更加疲弱。2009年，中国取代美国成为日本最大的贸易伙伴。软库(Softbank Corp.)首席执行长孙正义(Masayoshi Son)说，我预计大约八年后中国的GDP将是日本的两倍。现年53岁的孙正义是新一代日本商业领袖的代表。软库在日本走下坡路之际实现了增长。他说，中国的崛起也带来了一个机会，如果有更多的日本企业也把这一趋势看作是积极的，那么日本的经济前景也会光明起来。
尽管如此，两国在一些领域关系明显紧张，比如日本残酷的侵华战争所带来的历史遗留的紧张关系，以及中国对衰落的邻国日本施用新增的力量。最近定义两国关系的一个时刻是：去年秋季，两国因台湾附近有争议的钓鱼岛问题僵持不下，最终在北京方面的施压下，日本突然释放了扣留的一名中国渔船船长，尽管有视频证据显示这名船长曾向一艘日本海岸护卫队的船只猛冲过去。
日益崛起的中国和不断衰落的日本，两者前景的鲜明对比在尼尔森(Nielsen Co.)上个月公布的最新国际消费者信心调查中可见一斑。在这份对52个国家进行的调查中，中国消费者属最乐观之列，信心指数为100，全球平均水平为90。日本消费者则与罗马尼亚消费者并列倒数第四，信心指数为54。（美国消费者在中国和日本之间，信心指数为81。）
对北京方面来说，成为世界第二大经济体意味着新的影响力等优势。中国一直鼓吹愿意用自己2.85万亿美元的外汇储备购买希腊等陷入困境的国家的国债，进而帮助稳定这些国家。中国官员一直强烈指责华盛顿的货币政策，他们说美国的货币政策可能威胁中国持有的大量美国国债的价值。
不过，北京也怀疑发达国家想利用中国的崛起在一些领域敦促其承担更大的责任，比如减少碳排放和改革外汇政策。当去年夏季中国季度GDP超过日本时，官方媒体刊登了评论，驳斥他们所称的西方的"中国责任论"夸大了中国的全球作用。一位中国专家对新华社说，这些理论是捏造出来，以减缓、阻碍中国的发展。
在中国国内，成为全球第二大经济体令共产党的宣传说词更加复杂，这些宣传一直给人以中国沦为外国势力牺牲品的感觉，而现在中国又逐渐超越了这些列强，特别是上世纪30年代发动了侵华战争的日本。共产党领导人明白，中国作为经济大国的形象可能会吸引外界注意到强大与贫穷共存的中国的缺陷。
于是政府为中国经济成就而居功，同时又对这种成就做淡化处理。上个月国家统计局报告中国2010年GDP时，局长马建堂被问到如何看待即将到来的世界第二排名。他说，这是"中国人民在中国共产党的领导下，艰苦奋斗、不断进取的结果"，他同时又说，按人均计算，中国仍然是世界上较贫穷的国家之一。
中国公众的反应与官方的这种矛盾态度如出一辙。北京65岁退休公务员郑茂华（音）说，可能有人对此感到激动，但我不是其中之一。他说，这种GDP的成就无法反映这个社会国富民穷的实情。
日本在上世纪80年代和90年代早期位居世界第二，当时它也面临着跟中国目前一样的担心，害怕国际上要求它承担更大的责任。中国正式成为亚洲第一经济体，将这种注意力从东京身上转移开来。虽然日本仍是东亚历史最长的宪政民主国家、美国防御体系的一个基石，但它不再面临西方国家让它实施"金元外交"或开放市场（尽管日本仍对美国维持着巨额贸易顺差）的压力。
日本一些精英痛惜这些要求已成过去。东京大学(Tokyo University)经济学教授、曾任财务省高官的伊藤隆敏(Takatoshi Ito)说，我们一些人很怀念日本遭受抨击的那个时代，我们当时很不满，但被忽略比被抨击还要糟糕。
对于其他人来说，讨论已变为怎样在"世界第三"的时代界定日本的角色和形象。日本执政党有影响的政治家莲舫(Renho)去年出版新书《我们需要成为第一吗？》，说到很多人心里的痛处。这本书希望日本人接受这样一种看法：日本不需要事事都领先，甚至是事事都不领先，照样也可以被认为是成功的。
日本现在更加注重不同的、非量化的成功定义方式。它在国外的影响力仍旧巨大，某些方面甚至超过以往。但日本在具有争议的战略技术领域更加低调、更为间接，同时更加注重文化外交。
与日本作为创造、创新（混合动力汽车或3D电子游戏）中心形象形成鲜明对比的是，20年前，它还是一种模仿其他国家先进设计与技术、然后用更强大的制造能力赶超原版生产者的山寨形象。如今这个标签更多地贴在了中国身上。
经济产业省曾经通过产业政策的制定，帮助日本制造商统治世界，因而闻名于世。该省新开了一个"创新产业促进室"，其任务是推广日本动漫和电子游戏的魅力。经济产业省负责贸易的副大臣池田元久(Motohisa Ikeda)说，我们将这个问题视为质与量的差别。他指出日本长期以来都擅长于制造高附加值产品。他说，日本仍旧符合"富国"这个词的多个含义。
CHESTER DAWSON / JASON DEAN
（更新完成）
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
China passed Japan in 2010 to become the world's second-largest economy after the U.S., a historic shift that has drawn mixed emotions in the two Asian powers: resignation tinged with soul-searching in long-stagnant Japan, pride but also caution in an ascendant China wary of shouldering new global responsibilities.
The Japanese government made official the long-expected flip Monday morning in Tokyo, reporting that the economy shrank at a 1.1% annual rate for the last three months of the year, a period when China's gross domestic product surged 9.8% from a year earlier. With those figures, Japan's full-year GDP was $5.47 trillion─about 7% smaller than the $5.88 trillion China reported in January.
[CHINAGDP]
Both still remain considerably smaller than the American economy. Japan and China combined are still worth less than the U.S.'s 2010 GDP of $14.66 trillion. But the news marks the end of era. For nearly two generations, since overtaking West Germany in 1967, Japan stood solidly as the world's No. 2 economy. The new rankings symbolize China's rise and Japan's decline as global growth engines.
For the U.S., while Japan was in some ways an economic rival, it also has been a geopolitical and military ally. China, however, is a potential challenger on all fronts.
China's ascent has been the main source of popular legitimacy for the ruling Communist Party. But Beijing worries that the mantle of economic titan comes with unwanted obligations for a country still in many ways poor. 'China Surpassing Japan to Become World's Second Biggest Economy─But Not the Second Strongest,' said the headline on a recent article on the website of the People's Daily, the party's flagship newspaper.
In Japan, the moment is seen as another marker of an extended weakening. 'It's only natural that Japan would be overtaken considering China's ballooning GDP and larger population,' Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara told reporters recently. The outspoken nationalist was once the proud voice of a cocky nation, co-authoring the bubble-era 1989 book, 'The Japan That Can Say 'No.'' Now, he talks about his country's standing with a tinge of sadness. 'It's just unfortunate that various other signs of Japan's decline stand out so much against that backdrop.'
The complex reactions in both countries reflect the fact that China still lags behind Japan in many respects─and the reality that their growing interdependence makes them partners as much as rivals.
China's per capita income is still only a tenth of Japan's. The World Bank estimates that more than 100 million Chinese citizens─nearly the size of Japan's entire population─live on less than $2 a day. Robin Li, chief executive of Chinese Internet search giant Baidu Inc. notes: 'There's still the undeniably awkward fact that China still has yet to produce an enterprise with truly global influence commensurate with China's rising power,' such as Toyota Motor Corp. or Sony Corp.
As many Japanese business leaders note, Japan's economy would have been even weaker without exports to China and an influx of Chinese tourists. China surpassed the U.S. as Japan's largest trading partner in 2009. 'I expect China's GDP to be double Japan's' in about eight years, said 53-year-old Masayoshi Son, spokesman for a new generation of Japanese leaders as CEO of Softbank Corp., which has managed to grow amid the country's decline. China's rise also presents an opportunity: 'If more Japanese companies also viewed this situation as something positive, Japan's economic prospects would also brighten up.'
Still, there are clear strains, with historical tension lingering from Japan's brutal wartime occupation, and China flexing newfound muscle against a weakened neighbor. The recent defining moment: last fall's standoff over disputed islands near Taiwan, ending in Japan's sudden release of an arrested Chinese fishing captain under pressure from Beijing, despite video evidence that the captain had violently charged a Japanese coast guard vessel.
The contrasting outlooks of an ascendant China and a declining Japan was evident in Nielsen Co.'s latest international consumer confidence survey of 52 countries released last month. Chinese consumers were among the most optimistic, with a 'confidence index' of 100, compared with the global average of 90. Japan's consumers tied with Romania's for fourth most pessimistic, with an index of 54. (Americans stood between the two, with an index of 81.)
For Beijing, being No. 2 means, among other things, new clout. China has trumpeted its willingness to use its $2.85 trillion hoard of foreign-exchange reserves to help stabilize struggling countries such as Greece by purchasing their bonds. Officials have chastised Washington for monetary policies they say could endanger the value of China's massive holdings of U.S. government debt.
But Beijing also suspects that developed countries want to use its rise to foist on it greater responsibilities in areas like carbon-emissions reduction and currency policy. When China's GDP passed Japan's on a quarterly basis last summer, official media outlets ran commentaries rebutting what they called 'China responsibility theories' in the West exaggerating the country's global role. The theories, one Chinese expert told the Xinhua news agency, 'are fabricated to slow down and check China's development.'
At home, the rise to No. 2 complicates the Communist Party's national narrative, steeped in a sense of victimhood at the hands of foreign powers─not least 1930s Japan─that China is now overtaking. Party leaders are aware that China's image as an economic powerhouse risks calling attention to the shortcomings of a country both powerful and poor.
So the government takes credit for China's economic accomplishment while playing it down. When the National Bureau of Statistics reported China's 2010 GDP last month, director Ma Jiantang was asked about the looming No. 2 milestone. The rise 'is the result of hard struggle and continuous progress of the Chinese people under the leadership of the Communist Party,' he said─adding that China remains one of the world's poorer countries on a per capita basis.
The official ambivalence is mirrored in China's public reaction. 'There might be people feeling thrilled about this, but I'm not one of them,' said Zheng Maohua, a 65-year-old retired government official in Beijing. The GDP landmark 'can't reflect the true situation of this society,' which he described as 'rich country, poor people.'
When it was No. 2 in the 1980s and early 1990s, Japan faced the same pressures China now fears, of global demands to shoulder extra responsibilities. China's official rise to Asia's top economy takes the spotlight off Tokyo. While still the oldest liberal democracy in East Asia and a cornerstone of the U.S. defense umbrella, Japan no longer faces the same pressure from Western peers to exercise 'checkbook diplomacy' or open its markets─even though Japan's trade surpluses with the U.S. remain high.
Some Japanese elites are wistful for those demands. 'Some of us look back to the era of Japan-bashing with nostalgia,' says Takatoshi Ito, an economics professor at Tokyo University and a former top finance ministry official. 'We were frustrated back then, but ignored is worse than being bashed.'
For others, the debate is on to define Japan's role and image for the era of No. 3. One influential Japanese ruling-party politician, Renho, who uses only one name, touched a nerve last year with her book titled 'Do We Have to Be No. 1?' It encouraged Japanese to take comfort in the notion that Japan need not be a leader in everything─or anything─to be considered successful.
Japan now is more focused on different, less-quantitative, ways of defining success. Its influence abroad remains extensive, and in some ways has grown. But it is more low-key, less directed in contentious areas of strategic technology and more in the realm of cultural diplomacy.
The notion of Japan as a center of creativity and innovation─in hybrid-engine-powered cars or 3-D videogames─contrasts with its image 20 years ago as a copycat that mimicked design and technology pioneered elsewhere, and then outpowered the original makers with superior manufacturing. That label is now attached more to China.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry─once famous for crafting an industrial policy that helped Japan's manufacturers rule the world─ has a new Creative Industries Promotion office designed to spread the appeal of anime cartoons, manga comics and Japanese videogames. 'We see it as a matter of quality over quantity,' said Motohisa Ikeda, a vice minister for trade, noting Japan's enduring prowess as a maker of high-value-added goods. 'Japan is still a wealthy nation in many senses of the word.'
CHESTER DAWSON / JASON DEAN
The Japanese government made official the long-expected flip Monday morning in Tokyo, reporting that the economy shrank at a 1.1% annual rate for the last three months of the year, a period when China's gross domestic product surged 9.8% from a year earlier. With those figures, Japan's full-year GDP was $5.47 trillion─about 7% smaller than the $5.88 trillion China reported in January.
[CHINAGDP]
Both still remain considerably smaller than the American economy. Japan and China combined are still worth less than the U.S.'s 2010 GDP of $14.66 trillion. But the news marks the end of era. For nearly two generations, since overtaking West Germany in 1967, Japan stood solidly as the world's No. 2 economy. The new rankings symbolize China's rise and Japan's decline as global growth engines.
For the U.S., while Japan was in some ways an economic rival, it also has been a geopolitical and military ally. China, however, is a potential challenger on all fronts.
China's ascent has been the main source of popular legitimacy for the ruling Communist Party. But Beijing worries that the mantle of economic titan comes with unwanted obligations for a country still in many ways poor. 'China Surpassing Japan to Become World's Second Biggest Economy─But Not the Second Strongest,' said the headline on a recent article on the website of the People's Daily, the party's flagship newspaper.
In Japan, the moment is seen as another marker of an extended weakening. 'It's only natural that Japan would be overtaken considering China's ballooning GDP and larger population,' Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara told reporters recently. The outspoken nationalist was once the proud voice of a cocky nation, co-authoring the bubble-era 1989 book, 'The Japan That Can Say 'No.'' Now, he talks about his country's standing with a tinge of sadness. 'It's just unfortunate that various other signs of Japan's decline stand out so much against that backdrop.'
The complex reactions in both countries reflect the fact that China still lags behind Japan in many respects─and the reality that their growing interdependence makes them partners as much as rivals.
China's per capita income is still only a tenth of Japan's. The World Bank estimates that more than 100 million Chinese citizens─nearly the size of Japan's entire population─live on less than $2 a day. Robin Li, chief executive of Chinese Internet search giant Baidu Inc. notes: 'There's still the undeniably awkward fact that China still has yet to produce an enterprise with truly global influence commensurate with China's rising power,' such as Toyota Motor Corp. or Sony Corp.
As many Japanese business leaders note, Japan's economy would have been even weaker without exports to China and an influx of Chinese tourists. China surpassed the U.S. as Japan's largest trading partner in 2009. 'I expect China's GDP to be double Japan's' in about eight years, said 53-year-old Masayoshi Son, spokesman for a new generation of Japanese leaders as CEO of Softbank Corp., which has managed to grow amid the country's decline. China's rise also presents an opportunity: 'If more Japanese companies also viewed this situation as something positive, Japan's economic prospects would also brighten up.'
Still, there are clear strains, with historical tension lingering from Japan's brutal wartime occupation, and China flexing newfound muscle against a weakened neighbor. The recent defining moment: last fall's standoff over disputed islands near Taiwan, ending in Japan's sudden release of an arrested Chinese fishing captain under pressure from Beijing, despite video evidence that the captain had violently charged a Japanese coast guard vessel.
The contrasting outlooks of an ascendant China and a declining Japan was evident in Nielsen Co.'s latest international consumer confidence survey of 52 countries released last month. Chinese consumers were among the most optimistic, with a 'confidence index' of 100, compared with the global average of 90. Japan's consumers tied with Romania's for fourth most pessimistic, with an index of 54. (Americans stood between the two, with an index of 81.)
For Beijing, being No. 2 means, among other things, new clout. China has trumpeted its willingness to use its $2.85 trillion hoard of foreign-exchange reserves to help stabilize struggling countries such as Greece by purchasing their bonds. Officials have chastised Washington for monetary policies they say could endanger the value of China's massive holdings of U.S. government debt.
But Beijing also suspects that developed countries want to use its rise to foist on it greater responsibilities in areas like carbon-emissions reduction and currency policy. When China's GDP passed Japan's on a quarterly basis last summer, official media outlets ran commentaries rebutting what they called 'China responsibility theories' in the West exaggerating the country's global role. The theories, one Chinese expert told the Xinhua news agency, 'are fabricated to slow down and check China's development.'
At home, the rise to No. 2 complicates the Communist Party's national narrative, steeped in a sense of victimhood at the hands of foreign powers─not least 1930s Japan─that China is now overtaking. Party leaders are aware that China's image as an economic powerhouse risks calling attention to the shortcomings of a country both powerful and poor.
So the government takes credit for China's economic accomplishment while playing it down. When the National Bureau of Statistics reported China's 2010 GDP last month, director Ma Jiantang was asked about the looming No. 2 milestone. The rise 'is the result of hard struggle and continuous progress of the Chinese people under the leadership of the Communist Party,' he said─adding that China remains one of the world's poorer countries on a per capita basis.
The official ambivalence is mirrored in China's public reaction. 'There might be people feeling thrilled about this, but I'm not one of them,' said Zheng Maohua, a 65-year-old retired government official in Beijing. The GDP landmark 'can't reflect the true situation of this society,' which he described as 'rich country, poor people.'
When it was No. 2 in the 1980s and early 1990s, Japan faced the same pressures China now fears, of global demands to shoulder extra responsibilities. China's official rise to Asia's top economy takes the spotlight off Tokyo. While still the oldest liberal democracy in East Asia and a cornerstone of the U.S. defense umbrella, Japan no longer faces the same pressure from Western peers to exercise 'checkbook diplomacy' or open its markets─even though Japan's trade surpluses with the U.S. remain high.
Some Japanese elites are wistful for those demands. 'Some of us look back to the era of Japan-bashing with nostalgia,' says Takatoshi Ito, an economics professor at Tokyo University and a former top finance ministry official. 'We were frustrated back then, but ignored is worse than being bashed.'
For others, the debate is on to define Japan's role and image for the era of No. 3. One influential Japanese ruling-party politician, Renho, who uses only one name, touched a nerve last year with her book titled 'Do We Have to Be No. 1?' It encouraged Japanese to take comfort in the notion that Japan need not be a leader in everything─or anything─to be considered successful.
Japan now is more focused on different, less-quantitative, ways of defining success. Its influence abroad remains extensive, and in some ways has grown. But it is more low-key, less directed in contentious areas of strategic technology and more in the realm of cultural diplomacy.
The notion of Japan as a center of creativity and innovation─in hybrid-engine-powered cars or 3-D videogames─contrasts with its image 20 years ago as a copycat that mimicked design and technology pioneered elsewhere, and then outpowered the original makers with superior manufacturing. That label is now attached more to China.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry─once famous for crafting an industrial policy that helped Japan's manufacturers rule the world─ has a new Creative Industries Promotion office designed to spread the appeal of anime cartoons, manga comics and Japanese videogames. 'We see it as a matter of quality over quantity,' said Motohisa Ikeda, a vice minister for trade, noting Japan's enduring prowess as a maker of high-value-added goods. 'Japan is still a wealthy nation in many senses of the word.'
CHESTER DAWSON / JASON DEAN
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