我们刚刚经历了一场金融危机，为了让我们摆脱这场危机，许多西方国家的政府实际上抵押了我们的未来。
这些政府不得不修复自身的资产负债表；消费者们则在重建储蓄；由于银行业境况不佳，信贷增长也受到限制。这些因素综合在一起，将导致西方国家（尤其是美国、英国和欧洲）的经济增长速度低于危机前的水平。一旦我们如今所处的强劲复苏阶段自然走到终点（很可能是在明年的某个时候），这一点就将变得明朗起来。
有鉴于此，像中国这样的经济体所呈现出的更高速增长会显得相对比较诱人。我认为，发达世界投资者的大量资金将继续流入该地区。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)全球经济研究主管吉姆•奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)曾表示：“很简单，中国目前的发展仍是我们这一代——可能还包括我们下一代——最令人瞩目和最重要的经济传奇。”我对此表示认同。
中国目前的局面，与台湾或韩国约20年前高速增长时期的局面非常类似，与日本更早年间的局面也非常类似。不过，中国经济增长的规模更大，因为它的人口规模极其庞大。正当西方消费者着手重新提高储蓄率时，中国消费者很可能要开始消化自己的巨额储蓄。
中国经济的许多领域正处于自身发展曲线最陡峭的阶段，消费者收入已达到一定水平，越来越多的人可以期望拥有自己的住房、汽车和家居用品。考虑到中国目前的发展规模，以及其它新兴市场国家所不具备的中央统筹经济的有效性，世界或许再也不会遇到与此类似的局面了。
正是因为上述原因，我才推迟退休、重返基金管理阵地。中国今天所存在的投资机会令我越来越有信心。
最近，我在富达(Fidelity)香港办事处呆了3个月。这段经历让我对该地区（特别是中国）重新燃起了兴趣。在香港办事处呆了几周后，我对妻子说：中国存在的机会令人振奋，我认为股市可能会在未来几年里大幅攀升，令我希望自己没有退出基金业。颇令我意外的是，我的妻子告诉我说，既然我只有一次生命，就应该趁着自己仍有机会考虑再次管理基金。接下来的几周，我又与家人和资深的同僚们讨论了这个想法，最后决定尝试一把。
这段旅程注定不会平坦。中国是个新兴市场，其股市的波动仍将比发达市场股市更为剧烈。
如果我们在今年年初所有股市都“很便宜”的时候，就启动一只新基金，那就太美妙了。不过，我认为中国股市当前的估值并不算高，仍可谓合理。就中国新出现的这波牛市而言，我们只不过晚了一年，我认为它有潜力再持续几年。
我预计，明年世界多数股市将进入盘整。中国股市虽难独善其身，但它今年已经经历了一段长于其它许多股市的回调期。中国股市可能形成泡沫吗？我不知道。不过，形成泡沫的必要条件已经满足了不少，许多策略师也预言泡沫将会出现。
一位经验丰富的亚洲市场观察员曾经说过：“大家都知道，如果一个你没有投资的市场出现急剧攀升，那就是泡沫；如果你对它有所投资，那它就是个牛市。”我赞成这个观点。而且我认为，与牛市一样，泡沫通常也会持续数年。
过去五年里，我已多次访问中国，通常每年会访问两次，目的是考察中国企业。我管理富达特殊情况基金(Fidelity Special Situations Fund)时，曾在2005年至2007年间把该基金至多5%的资金投入中国股。更宽泛的说，富达逾16年来一直投资于中国，为此配有3名投资组合经理、5名分析师和3名专属交易员。我们对中国并不感到陌生。
我希望，我的经验和洞察力能让这支本已资源充足的团队如虎添翼。除了掌管一只将受益于中国极其诱人的长期增长的基金，我还将把我成功的“特殊情况”投资策略应用到中国股市上。对像我这样的投资者来说，眼前的机会太过美妙，实在不容错过。我的退休可以再往后推推了。
本文作者是富达国际(Fidelity International)投资总裁、英国《金融时报》专栏作家
译者/汪洋
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001029997
In getting us out of the financial crisis we have just been through, many western governments have effectively mortgaged the future.
The combination of governments having to repair their balance sheets, consumers rebuilding savings and constraints on credit growth due to the weak state of the banking sector will result in slower growth than before the crisis, particularly in the US, UK and Europe. This will become apparent once the strong recovery phase we are now in runs its course, probably some time next year.
Because of this, the faster growth being seen in economies like China's will appear relatively attractive and I believe a lot of money will continue to flow into the region from investors in the developed world.
Jim O'Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs, has said: ”What is going on in China remains, quite simply, the most remarkable and important economic story of our, and possibly our children's, generation.” I agree.
The situation in China today is very similar to that in Taiwan or South Korea during their fast growth phases 20 or so years ago and in Japan before that. However, growth is occurring on an even bigger scale because of the enormous size of the Chinese population. Just as consumers in the west start to rebuild their savings rates, consumers in China are likely to start to run down their very high savings.
Many areas of the economy are in the steepest part of their development curve as consumer incomes reach a level where increasing numbers of people can aspire to own homes, cars and household goods. Because of the scale of what is happening and the effectiveness of a centrally-run economy that other emerging markets do not enjoy, the world may never see anything like this again.
All of this is why I am deferring my retirement and returning to running money. I have become increasingly convinced by the investment opportunities available in China today.
I recently spent three months based in Fidelity's Hong Kong office and this rekindled my interest in the region and China in particular. After a few weeks there, I said to my wife that the exciting opportunities available in China, and my belief that the market could go a lot higher over the next few years, made me wish I was still managing money. Rather to my surprise, she said that as I only had one life I should consider running a fund again while I still had the opportunity. I spent the next few weeks discussing the idea with my family and senior colleagues before deciding to give it a go.
No-one should imagine the ride will be smooth. China is an emerging market and the volatility of its stock markets will remain higher than in developed markets.
Although it would have been wonderful to have started a new fund at the beginning of this year, when all stock markets were in the “bargain” category, I believe China is still fairly valued today, rather than expensive. We are only one year into the new Chinese bull market and I think it has the potential to go on for several more years.
Next year, I expect most world markets to consolidate. China will not be immune but this year it has already experienced a longer retrenchment than many other markets. Could a bubble form in Chinese equities? I do not know, but many of the conditions necessary are there and a number of strategists are predicting one.
An experienced Asian observer has said: “As everyone knows, a bubble is a market that rises rapidly in which one is not invested; if one is invested, then it is a bull market.” I have sympathy with this view and I believe that, like bull markets, bubbles normally continue for several years.
I have been visiting China over the last five years, normally making two visits a year to see Chinese companies. When I ran the Fidelity Special Situations fund, I put up to 5 per cent of it into Chinese stocks between 2005 and 2007. More broadly, Fidelity has been investing in China for over 16 years and has three portfolio managers, as well as five analysts and three dedicated traders. We are not new to the country.
I hope my experience and perspective will add to this already well-resourced team. I will bring my successful Special Situations investment approach to Chinese stocks as well as running a fund that will benefit from China's very attractive secular growth. For an investor like me the opportunity is simply too great to pass up. My retirement can wait a while yet.
The writer is president, investments at Fidelity International and an FT columnist
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