比尔盖茨回顾2010年中国行：中国速度让美国感到威胁吗？
1990年，我因为微软的公务第一次访问中国。从那以后，我多次访华。最难忘的一次是在1995年——当时，我和我的父亲比尔、妻子梅琳达，以及好朋友沃伦・巴菲特一起来到中国。我们当时单纯是以游客的身份，花了几周时间，坐着火车去了很多地方。
每次访问后，我都会为中国在诸多领域的进步而惊叹，尤其是经济的飞速发展。在上海、北京以及其他很多城市，一台台起重机下幢幢高楼拔地而起，让人明显感受到中国变化的速度。
多年来，一直有分析家预测说，中国经济不可能总以每年10%的速度增长，认为一定会出现这样或那样的瓶颈。但这个预言并未实现。2010年第三季度，中国的国内生产总值又增长了9.6个百分点，而这还是一年中最慢的增长速度。即便是这个最慢的增速，还是比经济学家们之前预测的要快。今年，中国已跻身成为世界第二大经济体。
我这次的中国之行很特别。尤其让人兴奋的是，我有机会接触到多个很感兴趣的领域。我访问了微软亚洲研究院的团队。在那里，我看到了有关搜索技术方面令人难以置信的创新。我考察了一些疫苗公司。在旅程的最后，我还和沃伦・巴菲特、查理・芒格以及伯克希尔・哈撒韦公司的其他董事会成员一起参加了一些活动。比如，我们访问了比亚迪公司——伯克希尔公司在那里拥有10%的股份。比亚迪没有辜负它的名字——“成就你的梦想”。它生产电池、电动和混合动力小汽车和巴士客车，以及许多极具创意的绿色产品。
中国疫苗工业潜力
与疫苗公司会面，是为了探索在中国拓展新疫苗开发并进一步为全球提供服务的可能性。历史上，最重要的疫苗研发几乎都源于欧洲和美国。如今，像中国、印度和巴西这些国家，也都开始生产和提供一些重要疫苗的低成本版本。理想情况下，它们也会涉足新疫苗研发的领域。在这些国家，仍有很多人遭受重大感染性疾病的困扰，急需新疫苗来应对，而本国本土的参与会更好地帮助疫苗的推广。此外，像中国这样的国家在制造低成本疫苗方面经验丰富。因此，如果他们也加入开发新疫苗的行列，那么从研发之初就会体现出低成本制造的优势——那将是一件很棒的事！
盖茨基金会正努力接触那些本地的新疫苗公司，看看是什么限制了它们的发展，我们又能提供怎样的帮助。这是我第一次访问这样的公司，疫苗工业发展速度之快给我留下深刻印象。他们真正懂得如何实现低成本生产，并且正努力让产品质量达到国际标准。在未来的五到十年，他们很可能有潜力研发出很多突破性的疫苗产品，并且通过降低疫苗价格来促进现有疫苗在世界上最贫穷人口中的推广。毕竟对这些穷人而言，价格是疫苗使用的重大障碍。
具体来说，基金会正努力确保世界上每个孩子都能够接种到三种疫苗：五联疫苗（预防白喉、破伤风、百日咳、乙肝和B型流感的复合疫苗），轮状病毒疫苗（预防严重的急性肠胃炎）和肺炎球菌疫苗（预防肺炎）。这三种疫苗每年能够减少100万儿童的死亡。如果我们能降低疫苗的成本，那么即使是世界上最穷苦的孩子也能够接种上这三种疫苗。目前看来，中国能够在制造低成本的轮状病毒疫苗和肺炎球菌疫苗上有所贡献。我们在中国看到了合作的机会，如同在印度和巴西一样。
在疫苗生产过程中，使之符合国际质量标准是个昂贵并且复杂的过程。在中国，我们参观过一条非常独特的流感疫苗生产线——科研人员在鸡蛋中培养流感病毒用于疫苗制造。不过，工厂必须购买大量的鸡蛋，并确保它们都是无菌的——这是相当大的工程。人们担心，在（流感）大规模爆发的时候，他们未必能买到足够的鸡蛋，并在短时间内培养足够的病毒来制造疫苗。我们此行还访问了科兴生物制品有限公司位于北大生物产业园的总部。他们已经脱颖而出，迅速建立起大批量生产流感疫苗的能力。这令我印象尤为深刻。
跟巴菲特呆在一起
我喜欢找各种理由跟巴菲特呆在一起。不管是打我们俩都不大擅长的高尔夫球或者是玩我们都还算凑合的桥牌。
我们在比亚迪的访问也很精彩。这个公司由一个电池专家创建于1995年。之后，它慢慢成长为手机电池和汽车电池领域的强者。2003年，比亚迪决定开始生产自己的汽车。目前，它已拥有中国市场大约6%的份额，并计划扩大其生产线和市场份额。比亚迪是个创新的公司，推动了电池技术、电动出租车、电动巴士客车和电子存储系统的研制等。
比亚迪的总部设在深圳。那是一个位于中国东南部、毗邻香港的城市。深圳不仅是个经济特区，更是中国经济奇迹开始的地方。因此，如果在那里看到很多现代化的建筑以及汽车工厂，我并不会感到惊讶。但是，当听说他们盖楼的速度有多快时，我深感震惊！在美国，那几乎就是不可能达到的速度。
我还去了中国中部的一个城市——长沙。在那里发现了更神奇的事——在这个生活着600万人口的城市，存在着每年可以生产40万辆汽车的工厂。而它从破土到竣工，整个过程不超过两年！在这个城市周围，新的高层建筑正拔地而起。可就在几年前，那里还只不过是一片片玉米地。你可能听说过（中国）10%的经济增长率，但若想有更深入全面的了解，你就必须亲临实地去切身感受——那种投资、建设和克服重重困难的强大动力。
值得注意的是，中国不只在模仿西方，也正在做出富有创新性的贡献。举个例子，比亚迪已经研发出一种全部靠电能运转的巴士客车，使用特别的电池和电机系统驱动。公司运用创新技术降低电池成本、提高电池寿命。如果它能像设计的那样工作，那么使用者就能从燃料使用方面节约出足够的钱，用于支付巴士客车本身很大一部分费用。我们进行了试乘，并参加了一个活动。活动上，当地政府承诺购买1000辆这样的巴士。这将帮助减少中国城市的烟雾污染，甚至有助于减少二氧化碳排放量。
中国正在以惊人的速度前进着。如果你能在那里待上六天，一定也会受到震动：他们关注关键问题并且推进改变的能力；学术界、政府以及商业之间的合作；他们对行动力的重视等等。虽然中国的人均GDP仍然只是美国的十分之一，但是他们正在以惊人的速度持续拉近这个差距。
这让一些美国人感觉到威胁。但是，正如我过去对美国公众所说的那样——我相信中国经济的发展（如同其他国家的发展一样）对美国的影响净值是积极的。因为事实表明，这个国家的人民在购买美国的产品、科研人员在研发抗癌的药物；并且，如同其他富裕国家一样，中国在众多领域的努力也为美国人民的幸福和健康做着贡献。
当然，对美国而言，像中国这样的国家可能被视为一个颇具竞争力的挑战。但是，竞争也会促使我们更为强大；特别是如果竞争能激发出一种应对挑战的紧迫感，来促使我们直面需要解决的问题，比如：开发出更清洁、更便宜的能源，或是建立更好的教育系统或税收体制。
中国国内的一些政策也引发了外界一些可以理解的关注。从历史的角度而言，几乎在每个走进富裕的国家里，中产阶级的出现都会带来对社会自由的更大尊重。我相信在中国也会这样。美国社会所面对的真正重要的问题是：一方面，我们如何把积极务实的态度和关注创新的精神融合在一起；另一方面，如何细心关注个人的权利并努力照顾好每一个人？我想，那才是非常重要的挑战。而美国的优势将在于把过去最好的经验和当前的长处结合起来。
2010年9月下旬，两个世界上最富有的人——比尔・盖茨与“股神”沃伦・巴菲特携手来华，邀请数十位中国富豪参加“巴比慈善晚宴”，其后又赴深圳、长沙参观访问。新年伊始，比尔・盖茨撰文回顾此次中国之行，并授权《新世纪》周刊独家刊发。原文标题为“中国，全速迈向未来”（In China,Speeding Toward the Future）。小标题亦为编者所加。——编者
In China, Speeding Toward the Future
Posted 01/12/2011
I travelled to China for the first time in 1990 on Microsoft business and have been back many times since. One very memorable trip was in 1995 with Melinda, my father and Warren Buffett. We rode the trains and traveled around as tourists for several weeks – it was an incredible trip and a lot of fun.
My recent trip was unique and especially exciting, as I had the opportunity to do work that spans my various interests. I met with our team at Microsoft Research Asia, where I saw some incredible innovations in search and related technologies. I also met with a number of vaccine companies that are working with our foundation. For the last part of the trip, I joined Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and other Berkshire Hathaway board members. Our main focus was a visit to BYD, an incredible company in which Berkshire owns a 10 percent stake. BYD fully lives up to its name, which stands for Build Your Dreams. It manufactures batteries, electric and hybrid cars and buses, and many highly innovative green products.
The meetings with vaccine manufacturers were about the potential for expanding development of new vaccines in China for use worldwide. Historically, most important vaccines have originated in Europe and the United States. Now, countries like Brazil, India and China are providing lower-cost versions of some of them. Ideally, they’ll also get involved in inventing new vaccines. Because these countries suffer from many of the infectious diseases that we need new vaccines for, local development could help speed vaccine dissemination. Also, because countries like China have experience in making low-cost vaccines, they could be better at designing new ones in ways that make them low in cost from the very beginning. That would be wonderful.
And so the foundation is reaching out to new vaccine companies, seeing how we can help them and what holds them back. This was my first visit with some of the companies in China. I was impressed at how quickly the industry is moving ahead. They really understand low-cost manufacturing, and they're getting their quality up to world standards. Over the next five to ten years, they have the potential to create many breakthrough vaccines, as well as to help get current vaccines to the world’s poorest people, for whom price can be a significant obstacle.
Specifically, the foundation is trying to make sure that every child in the world gets three vaccines: pentavalent (against diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough, hepatitis B and influenza B), rotavirus (against severe acute gastroenteritis) and pneumococcal (against pneumonia). Together, these three could reduce child deaths by almost one million per year. If we can get their cost down, then we'll be able to get all three to even the poorest children in the world. It looks like China could help out on low-cost rotavirus and pneumococcal. So we have possibilities there, as we do in India and Brazil.
Gearing up to manufacture vaccines that meet international standards is a costly and complex process. In China we saw a flu vaccine manufacturing line that is unique in that it involves growing flu virus in chicken eggs. The plant has to buy a huge number of eggs and make sure they're all sterile. It's quite a process, and people worry that, in the event of a big epidemic, they might not be able to buy enough eggs and grow the virus quickly enough. But in our visit to Sinovac Biotech, headquartered in the Beijing University Biological Industry Park, we saw that it has really distinguished itself by rapidly building up its flu vaccine capability. That was quite impressive.
I love any excuse for spending time with Warren Buffett, whether we’re playing golf (which neither of us is very good at) or playing bridge, which we're kind of just okay at.
Our visit to BYD was amazing. The company was started back in 1995 by a battery expert. It grew to be very strong in phone batteries and car batteries, and then, in 2003, BYD decided to make its own cars. It has about six percent of the domestic car market and plans to expand its product line and volume quite dramatically. It's an innovative company, pushing forward on battery technology, doing electric taxis, electronic buses and electric storage systems.
BYD has created an entirely electronic bus using special batteries and a special electronic motor. The company has innovated to bring the battery cost down and the battery life up. If it works as well as planned, the operator saves enough on fuel to be able to pay quite a premium for the bus. We rode around on a prototype and participated in a ceremony where a local city committed to buy a thousand of these buses. They will be a huge help in reducing the smog in Chinese cities and could even help start to reduce CO2 emissions.
BYD headquarters is in Shenzhen, in the southeast part of China next to Hong Kong. Shenzhen is where the Chinese economic miracle started; it was a special economic zone. So I wasn't surprised to see a lot of modern buildings and a pretty impressive car factory. But I was blown away when I heard how quickly they put up the buildings. In the U.S., you just can't build nearly as fast.
What was even more amazing was to go to a city in the middle of China, Changsha, which has six million people, and see a new factory that will turn out 400,000 cars a year. It was built in less than two years from start to completion. Around the city, new high-rise buildings are going up where only cornfields stood just a few years ago. You hear about China’s 10-percent annual economic growth, but to fully understand you really have to see it in person. China is moving at incredible speed.
I’ve posted several photos from the trip which you’ll find at the top of this post in the media player. Be sure to click on each number so you can see all of the photos.
A news crew from CNBC came along on the part of the trip with Warren and other Berkshire Hathaway board members. You can view the CNBC report, including our visit to BYD, here.
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