凭借低成本、低价格生产的品牌，中国制造商已开始主宰全球市场。但随着通胀飙升至两年高位，企业将成本转嫁给消费者，“世界工厂”是否正在丧失其竞争优势？
上周的beyondbrics图表对中国的采购经理人指数(PMI)进行了细分，显示出2008年至2010年间这些分项指数的变化。图表展现了中国制造商面临的黯淡景象：在成本继续飙升，转化为更高价格之际，出口增速已开始放缓。
月度PMI指数根据Markit对400家制造企业的调查结果编制而成，所选企业全面覆盖了中国的地区和行业范畴。指数数值超过50代表制造业处于扩张之中，低于50则表明制造业处于萎缩。
乍看之下，中国的制造业似乎非常健康。与2008年全球金融危机最为肆虐之时不同，多数PMI分项指数（包括指数本身）现在都处于扩张之中。产出和新订单指数增长尤为强劲，两者都逼近60。
然而，对于企业而言不幸的是，自2008年以来涨幅最大的是投入价格。这个分项指数在两年间惊人地升高了50点，主要原因在于原材料价格飙升，尤其是金属价格。
成本上升已促成了价格的上涨：价格分项指数表明，2008年至2010年，商品价格几乎上涨了一倍。
毫不令人意外的是，制造商正受到不利影响。尽管销售持续攀升，增速却在放缓：自2009年以来，新订单（包括出口订单）和产出均出现了下滑。
这是中国制造业优势终结的开始吗？
汇丰银行(HSBC)首席经济学家简世勋(Stephen King)的答案是否定的。他指出，相对于其它国家，中国的劳动力成本仍然很低。他告诉beyondbrics：“这意味着，投入价格的温和上涨不会让中国商品在国外市场不具竞争力。”
简世勋的说法得到了最新贸易数据的支持。尽管PMI新出口订单分项指数出现下滑趋势，但在2010年第四季度，中国的出口继续增长，12月、11月和10月份的同比增幅分别达到17.9%，34.9%和22.9%。
另外，简世勋提出，中国商品会继续保持竞争力的不仅是在外国市场。
“实际薪资涨幅是中国通胀率的两倍左右。这意味着，中国消费者的购买力正在增强，从而将提振对国内商品的需求。这是中国经济在平衡的一部分，人民币实际汇率上升也是其中的一个关键因素。”
资本经济(Capital Economics)高级中国经济学家马克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)对此表示认同。他补充称，长期而言，中国商品的价格不太可能大幅上涨。他告诉beyondbrics：
“中国的制造业具有高度竞争力和创新性。这意味着，长期而言，成本上升不会造成价格上涨，只会鼓励企业为了保持低价而提高生产率。”
当然，如果中国的通胀失控，所有这一切可能都会发生变化。低廉的劳动力成本和创新可能不足以令价格保持竞争力，国内实际薪资（进而还有购买力）将受到侵蚀。
但鉴于年通胀率为5.1%（低于很多新兴市场国家），而且政府不惧采取补救性措施，因此现在就敲响中国制造业的丧钟似乎还为时过早。
译者/梁艳裳
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001036483
Chinesese manufacturers have come to dominate world markets with their brand of low-cost, low-price production. But with inflation soaring to a two-year high and businesses passing on the costs to consumers, is the “workshop of the world” losing its competitive edge?
This week’s beyondbrics chart breaks down China’s Purchasing Managers Index into its individual components and shows how these have changed between December 2008 and 2010. The chart makes grim reading for Chinese manufacturers: while costs continue to soar, translating into higher prices, export growth has begun to slow.
The monthly PMI is constructed from Markit survey responses from 400 manufacturing companies (selected to represent the full spectrum of regional and sectoral production in China). Index values of more than 50 indicate expansion, while values less than 50 indicate contraction.
At first glance, Chinese manufacturing appears to be in rude health. Unlike in 2008 – when the global financial crisis was at its worst – most components of the PMI (including the overall index itself) are now expanding. Output and new orders are showing particularly strong growth, with both edging towards to the 60 mark.
Unfortunately for businesses, however, the biggest increase since 2008 has been in input prices. The value of this sub-index has risen an astonishing 50 points over the two years, largely due to the soaring price of raw materials, and particularly metal.
Rising costs have fed through into higher prices: the sub-index representing the price charged for goods almost doubled between 2008 and 2010.
Unsurprisingly, manufacturers are being adversely affected. While sales continue to rise, the rate of growth is slowing: new orders (including export orders) and output have both slipped since 2009.
Is this the beginning of the end for Chinese manufacturing predominance?
Not according to Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC, who points out that Chinese labour costs are still very low relative to other countries. “This means that a modest increase in the price of inputs won’t make Chinese goods uncompetitive in foreign markets,” King told beyondbrics.
King’s claim is supported by the latest trade data. In spite of the declining trend in the PMI’s new export order sub-index, Chinese exports continued to rise in the last quarter of 2010, increasing 17.9 per cent year-on-year in December, 34.9 per cent in November and 22.9 per cent in October.
Further, King argues, it’s not only abroad that Chinese goods will remain competitive:
'Real wages are rising at around twice the rate of inflation in China. This means that the purchasing power of Chinese consumers is increasing, which will boost demand for domestic products. This is part of a broader rebalancing of the Chinese economy, of which an appreciation in the renminbi’s real exchange rate is also a key element.'
Mark Williams, senior China economist at Capital Economics, agrees, adding that the price of Chinese goods is unlikely to rise substantially in the long run. He told beyondbrics:
'The manufacturing sector is highly competitive and innovative in China. This means that, in the long run, higher costs won’t result in higher prices – it will merely encourage firms to raise productivity in order to maintain their low prices.'
If Chinese inflation gets out of control, of course, all this may change. Low labour costs and innovation may not be enough to keep prices competitive, and domestic real wages (and therefore purchasing power) will be eroded.
But with year-on-year inflation running at 5.1 per cent – less than that in many of China’s emerging market peers – and authorities not afraid to take remedial measures, it seems very premature to toll the death knell for Chinese manufacturing.
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