“金砖四国”(Bric)一词缔造者吉姆•奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)即将进一步重新定义“新兴市场”,并将于本月向客户解释自己的新方法。
目前担任高盛资产管理公司(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)董事长的奥尼尔打算将墨西哥、韩国、土耳其和印尼,与“金砖四国”(巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国)一起纳入一个新集团,称为“成长型市场”(growth markets)。奥尼尔向英国《金融时报》表示:“只把这四国称作新兴市场太不到位了。”
除了市值以外,新处理方法在衡量股市风险敞口方面将采用新的指标,比如国内生产总值(GDP)、企业营收增长以及资产回报率波动性。
奥尼尔表示:“有些新兴市场确实应该被当作新兴市场来交易——它们欠缺流动性,规模又小,对此投资者应当谨记。”
“但是,在新兴市场世界,任何一个占全球GDP比例达到1%以上、并且具备上升潜力的经济体,都理应受到重视。”
“金砖四国”之说经常被指摘为一种营销把戏。然而,这个问世9年的词语却催生了形形色色的政府峰会、投资基金和商业策略,并有一大批国家渴望加入这个集团。
4个月前仍担任高盛首席经济学家的奥尼尔表示,“新兴市场”所包含的国家太广泛,经济前景参差不齐,因而这个词已经不实用了。
以名义值计算,墨西哥和韩国各占全球GDP的1.6%,土耳其和印尼分别占1.2%和1.1%。
中国是世界第二大经济体,占全球GDP的9.3%(美国占23.6%),而巴西、印度和俄罗斯合计占8%。
译者/杨远
http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001036518
Jim O’Neill, who coined the term “Bric”, is about to further redefine emerging markets and will explain the new approach to clients this month.
The chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management plans to add Mexico, South Korea, Turkey and Indonesia into a new grouping with the Brics – Brazil, Russia, India and China – that he dubs “growth markets”. “Its just pathetic to call these four emerging markets,” he told the Financial Times.
The new approach will involve looking at fresh ways to measure exposure to equity markets beyond market capitalisation – for example, looking at gross domestic product, corporate revenue growth and the volatility of asset returns.
“Some emerging markets should be traded as emerging markets – they are illiquid and small, and investors should remember that,” said Mr O’Neill.
“But any economy from the emerging markets world that is already 1 per cent of global GDP or more, and has the potential for that to rise, has the ability to be taken seriously.”
The Brics have frequently been dismissed as a marketing ploy. However, the nine-year-old term has spawned government summits, investment funds, business strategies and a host of countries keen to join.
Mr O’Neill, chief economist at Goldman until four months ago, said the term “emerging markets” was no longer helpful because it encompassed countries with too great a range of economic prospects.
Mexico and South Korea account for 1.6 per cent each of global GDP in nominal terms. Turkey and Indonesia are worth 1.2 and 1.1 per cent respectively.
China is the world’s second-largest economy, at 9.3 per cent of global GDP (the US is worth 23.6 per cent), while Brazil, India and Russia combined provide a further 8 per cent.
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