就
在几年之前，访问中国还被多数金融界管理人士视为一种过分的行为。然而当伯克希尔-哈撒维公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)的巴菲特(Warren Buffett)、摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)的戴蒙(James Dimon)、KKR的克拉维斯(Henry Kravis)以及凯雷集团(Carlyle Group)的鲁宾斯坦(David Rubenstein)最近数月纷纷访问中国之后，人们对这些访问有了全然不同的看法：它们被看成是让各自公司保持增长的重要举措。
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
上海
可直到最近，中国在许多金融职业人士眼中仍是一个配角。全球增长对于中国经济的健康至关重要，同时中国对许多经济体也发挥着影响。但对大部分交易撮合者和财富创造者而言，中国的重要意义似乎并不大。
所有这些正在发生改变。中国正在开放市场，略微放松对人民币的控制，渐渐成为几乎每一个华尔街公司的未来所系。它也是不断增多的对冲基金和私募股权基金的投资策略中的关键一环。
看看中国企业在全球范围进行的首次公开募股(IPO)金额吧，据数据追踪商Dealogic，中国企业2010年全球IPO金额总计为1040亿美元，2009年为540亿美元。如果将香港企业包括在内，去年的总金额将达到1260亿美元，不过它也涵盖了外国投资者无法完全参与的国内市场。
相比之下，2010年美国的IPO金额不到340亿美元，这也是中国企业在IPO发行上连续第二年超过美国企业。没有参与中国企业IPO的银行家们可能拿不到那么多奖金了。中国还没有一家投行具备全球性的实力，所以他们在外国投行可以参与的交易中乏善可陈也不难解释。
与此同时，并购专家竞相赶往中国，与中海油(Cnooc)、中石化(Sinopec)等公司展开合作，它们缔结的相关交易是2010年规模最大的交易之一。中国企业2010年达成了3,235笔收购交易，价值接近1900亿美元，占到当年全球总交易的9%。这超过了除美国以外的任何其他国家，也超过了总部位于英国的企业所达成的1620亿美元的交易价值。中国还是2010年外国企业收购对象第二多的国家，仅次于美国。
在外汇市场上，分析师说更多的交易员正在大量押注人民币2011年是否会进一步升值。中国大陆和香港证交所的成交量如今已可比拟美国市场。一些策略师，比如花旗集团(Citigroup)的勒夫科维奇(Tobias Levkovich)将上海股市视为美国股市的领先指标。
中国经济的增长是如此迅速，以至于它帮助越来越多的公司抵消了世界其他地区增长陷入停滞所带来的影响。中国的需求进一步推高全球大宗商品价格以及大宗商品供应商的股价。
所有这些都在一定程度上说明了为何一些最大的投资者正增加看涨或是看跌中国头寸的原因。看涨者说，影响力将继续从发达国家向发展中市场转移。他们将中国说成是这种趋势的最佳例证，认为中国和亚洲其他地区的机会要多于欧美。
Reuters
中国河北省的高层公寓拔地而起。中国的城市化进程被认为是经济增长的关键因素。
阿贝斯(Daniel Arbess)管理着Perella Weinberg Partners旗下的一支对冲基金，他的获利途径是买入受益于中国经济增长的全球性企业的股票，这种策略被他称为"同中国握手"，同时看跌那些在与中国对手的竞争中处于下风的企业股票。
阿贝斯专注于首诺公司(Solutia Inc.)、苹果公司(Apple Inc.)、百胜餐饮集团(Yum Brands Inc.)等这些在中国发展迅速的公司，同时也关注那些生产在华热销品的企业。譬如，拥有肯德基(KFC)、必胜客(Pizza Hut)和塔可钟(Taco Bell)等品牌的百胜集团所有业务的同店销售额均实现了增长，这是自2008年底以来的头一次。其中中国业务增长了6%，美国及其他国际市场增长了1%。
然而许多投资者发现直接对中国下注并不是件容易的事。很少有公司有足够数量的已发行股票或是交投足够活跃，这使得大型投资者无法安心地进行大规模投资。金融和监管透明度的相对不足也是一个障碍。
最近发生的一件事提醒了人们保持谨慎的必要性。大型天然气分销商中国燃气控股有限公司去年12月底宣布，该公司两名高管被自称代表深圳市公安局的人带走了，并说公司此后一直未能与这两人取得联系，也没人告知公司这两人为何被拘留。
这件事让使那些跟踪分析中国燃气控股有限公司的公司感到惶恐。以将中国燃气控股的业绩一直预估到了2013年底的瑞银(UBS)为例，截止到上周，这家公司与投资者一样都不知晓这两位高管被带走后的详细情况，瑞银对其客户说，它不能确定这一事件是否会影响中国燃气控股的业绩。直到去年末中国燃气控股的这件事仍未得到解决，该公司的股票也依然停牌。
正因为此类原因，中国也是查诺斯(James Chanos)等一些大卖空者的目标，查诺斯经营着对冲基金Kynikos Advisors。
看空人士还举出了中国昂贵的房地产市场以及那些没多少人居住的所谓"鬼城"，而中国政府已经为这类城市投入了上百亿美元的建设资金。查诺斯正在做空总部位于香港的中国房地产企业以及其他一些公司的股票。
查诺斯最近在一次会议上说，中国大规模资本投资项目的状况日益恶化，他在会上重点谈了他所说的"中国创纪录贷款狂潮"，并说这一狂潮推涨了投机性繁荣。中国的固定资产投资去年增长了23.5%，预计今年将增长20%；分析师们说，中国银行业2010年的放贷额远远超过了中国央行设定的上限。
与此同时，许多私募股权公司却竞相在中国达成协议，以分享中国的经济增长，并向自己的客户证明它们能在中国找到机会。
克拉维斯(Kravis)的私募股权基金KKR组建一只10亿美元中国投资基金的工作已接近尾声，这只基金专门投资中国那些快速成长的企业。这是KKR首只专门投资中国的基金，该公司此前通过众多其他基金投资中国。KKR的竞争对手如TPG和凯雷(Carlyle)也加紧在华行动，凯雷在中国一直很活跃。TPG最近宣布了设立两只人民币基金的计划，每只基金的规模都在7亿美元以上。
可以肯定的是，许多私募股权基金和对冲基金的老总们私下里同样对中国的局面感到沮丧，虽然他们正在这个国家寻找着投资机会。一些人说，中国法治意识薄弱使得难以在这里解决纠纷。还有人质疑中国私人和公共机构所公布数据的可靠性，或无法确定谁在控制中国企业，这些企业通常会受到中国政府官员的影响。
也有一些私募股权基金的高管担心，中国东部地区的资产已经被挑选得差不多了，他们正前往中、西部内陆地区以寻找机会。
有人认为，这种转变显示这些投资者正在坦然接受风险。专家们说，在中国内陆地区更难获得可靠的数据或对当地企业发挥影响力。
但前往内陆地区寻找投资机会也有其一定的合理性。虽然中国东部地区的经济实力一直在全国居主导地位，但野村国际(Nomura International)的数据显示，中国中、西部地区2010年在大多数经济增长指标上都超过了东部地区。这些指标包括国内生产总值增幅、零售额增幅以及进出口额等。
野村说，得益于资源及相关行业的迅速发展以及市场对这些行业产品不断增长的需求，西部地区的经济增长正在加速。
与此同时，要看空一个有2.6万亿美元外汇储备、全国大多数人口刚刚开始全面城市化且拥有更高生活水平的国家，也是件有风险的事，中国的这些发展趋势预计会带来更多投资机会。
中国2011年及以后的一个不确定因素是，中国政府能否在遏制通货膨胀的同时保持经济的快速增长，中国的通货膨胀率目前已超过5%。或许只有中国领导人将中国转变为一个消费主导型经济体，中国经济未来才能继续强劲增长。但鉴于中国人享受的社会保障相对不足，中国政府可能难以激发出太多的购买力，虽然中国政府已计划增加社会福利支出。
2011年对于全球市场和金融企业来说，中国能否在不遭受重大挫折的情况下继续增长和发展，其重要性可能要大于美联储(Federal Reserve)或欧盟出台的任何政策。
Perella Weinberg的阿贝斯(Arbess)说，全球经济的唯一重大挑战以及全球市场的最大机会都是中国是否能够转变为一个消费型社会。
Gregory Zuckerman
（更新完成）
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
Visiting China was considered an indulgence for most financial executives just a few years ago.
But when Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s Warren Buffett, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s James Dimon, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.'s Henry Kravis and Carlyle Group's David Rubenstein all visited China in recent months, the trips were seen as something else entirely: crucial steps to keep their respective companies growing.
China has been important to global economic growth for years, of course. The country likely emerged as the world's second-largest economy in 2010. It is expected to show close to 10% growth in both 2010 and 2011.
Until recently, however, China was something of a sideshow for many financial professionals. Global growth was key to China's health, and the country had an impact on many economies. But China didn't seem to matter much to most deal makers and wealth creators.
That's all changing. China is opening its markets, slightly loosening the reins on its currency, and is emerging as a key to the future of almost every Wall Street firm. It's also a linchpin of the investment strategies of a growing number of hedge- and private-equity funds.
Consider that global initial public offerings of Chinese companies amounted to $104 billion in 2010, according to data-tracker Dealogic, up from $54 billion in 2009. Last year's tally amounts to $126 billion if Hong Kong companies are included, though it includes domestic markets not fully accessible to foreigners.
By comparison, less than $34 billion of U.S. IPOs took place in 2010, the second consecutive year that Chinese companies topped U.S. companies in IPO issuance. Bankers that didn't participate in Chinese IPOs risked seeing smaller bonuses. No Chinese investment bank has emerged as a global power, reducing alibis for not establishing a presence in deals available to foreigners.
Meanwhile, mergers-and-acquisitions specialists are racing to China to work with companies like China National Offshore Oil Corp., known as Cnooc, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, among the biggest deal makers in 2010. Chinese companies completed 3,235 acquisitions valued at nearly $190 billion, or 9% of all global deals in 2010. That was more than any other nation except the U.S. and more than the $162 billion of deals by U.K.-based companies. China also was the second-most frequent target of purchases by foreign companies in 2010, after the U.S.
In currency markets, analysts say more traders are laying big bets on whether the yuan will be allowed to appreciate further in 2011. Stock-trading volume on Chinese and Hong Kong exchanges now rivals that of U.S. markets. And some strategists, such as Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup, view the Shanghai market as a leading indicator for U.S. shares.
The Chinese economy is expanding so quickly it's helping to offset stagnant growth elsewhere in the world for a growing number of companies. And Chinese demand increasingly drives global commodity prices and shares of commodity providers.
That all helps explain why some of the largest investors are boosting wagers on─and against─China. The bulls say power will continue to shift to developing makets from developed countries. They cite China as exhibit A of this trend, arguing there are more opportunities in China and elsewhere in Asia than in the U.S. or Europe.
Already, some of the hottest investments over the past year, including rare-earth shares like Molycorp Inc. and Rare Element Resources Ltd., get their mojo from tightening Chinese controls or rising demand in the country.
Daniel Arbess, who runs a hedge fund for Perella Weinberg Partners, has been profiting by buying shares of global companies helped by Chinese growth, a strategy he calls 'Shake Hands With China,' and betting against those having a hard time competing with Chinese rivals.
Mr. Arbess is focused on companies like Solutia Inc., Apple Inc. and Yum Brands Inc. that are growing quickly in China, as well as those that produce commodities in demand in China. For example, Yum, the owner of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell brands, saw same-store sales rise in each division for the first time since the end of 2008. China enjoyed a 6% gain, while the U.S. and other international locations posted 1% growth.
But many investors find it challenging to directly wager on China. Few companies have enough shares outstanding, or trade with sufficient activity, to make larger investors feel comfortable making a substantial investment. A relative lack of financial and regulatory transparency also is a hindrance.
A recent incident is a reminder of the need to be wary: China Gas Holdings Ltd., a large natural-gas distributor, announced in late December that two of its executives were escorted from the company's offices by people claiming to represent the Shenzhen Municipal Public Security Bureau. China Gas said it hadn't been able to get in touch with executives, nor has the company been told why the executives were detained.
The incident has flummoxed firms providing analytical coverage of China Gas. UBS, for instance, produces estimates of China Gas's results through 2013. But as of last week, the firm, along with investors, had no details about the executives, and told clients it wasn't sure if the incident would affect the company's operations. The matter hadn't been resolved as the year ended and the stock remains suspended from trading.
That's all part of the reason China also is the target of some of the biggest short-sellers, such as James Chanos, who runs hedge fund Kynikos Advisors.
The bears also point to China's expensive real-estate market and so-called ghost cities that relatively few inhabit, despite billions poured into them by Beijing. Mr. Chanos is shorting Chinese property companies based in Hong Kong, among other shares.
'Large-scale capital projects grow sillier by the day,' Mr. Chanos said at a recent conference, in which he focused on what he called a 'record lending spree in China' that is 'fueling a speculative boom.' Indeed, fixed-asset investment grew 23.5% last year, and is forecast to grow 20% this year; analysts say banks far exceeded China's central bank's cap on lending in 2010.
Meanwhile, many private-equity firms are racing to cut deals in China, to tap into the nation's growth─and to demonstrate to clients that they're capable of finding opportunities in China.
Mr. Kravis's KKR is putting the finishing touches on a $1 billion fund to invest in fast-growing companies in China, its first China-focused fund after several years of investing in China through broader funds. Rivals like TPG and Carlyle, which have long has been active in China, are stepping up activity. TPG recently announced plans to raise two Chinese currency-denominated funds, each sized at more than $700 million.
To be sure, a number of private-equity and hedge-fund chiefs privately share frustrations about China, even as they search for opportunities in the country. The rule of law is weak, some say, making it harder to resolve disputes. Others question the reliability of data published by private and public bodies, or aren't sure who controls Chinese companies, which usually are influenced by Chinese government officials.
Still other private-equity executives worry that assets in the eastern part of the country are so picked-over that they're heading to central and western hinterlands to find opportunities.
Some see this shift as a sign that these investors are embracing risk. Indeed, experts say it's even more difficult to obtain reliable data or gain influence over local businesses in these parts of China.
There's some rationale to the strategy, however. Although the eastern region has long dominated the country, central and western China surpassed the eastern region on most measures of economic growth in 2010, according to Nomura International, including gross-domestic-product growth, retail sales growth, export and imports.
'The western region's growth is accelerating, thanks to rising demand for and rapid development of resources and related industries,' Nomura says.
At the same time, it's risky to bet against an economy with $2.6 trillion of foreign currency reserves and where the majority of the population is only beginning to fully urbanize and embrace higher standards of living, a trend likely to bring more investment opportunities.
The open question for 2011 and beyond is whether Chinese authorities can keep the country growing apace, even as they press the brakes on inflation, which is growing at a clip of more than 5%. Strong future growth may come only if Chinese leaders can transform the nation into a consumer-focused economy. But it may be hard to spark much more spending among a populace that has a relatively flimsy safety net, though the government is aiming to boost social welfare spending.
Whether Chinese development and growth can continue without major setbacks could be more important to global markets and financial firms than anything the Federal Reserve or European Union do in 2011.
'The transition to a consumer society in China represents the single biggest challenge for the global economy,' says Perella Weinberg's Mr. Arbess, 'and the biggest opportunity for markets.'
Gregory Zuckerman
But when Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s Warren Buffett, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s James Dimon, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.'s Henry Kravis and Carlyle Group's David Rubenstein all visited China in recent months, the trips were seen as something else entirely: crucial steps to keep their respective companies growing.
China has been important to global economic growth for years, of course. The country likely emerged as the world's second-largest economy in 2010. It is expected to show close to 10% growth in both 2010 and 2011.
Until recently, however, China was something of a sideshow for many financial professionals. Global growth was key to China's health, and the country had an impact on many economies. But China didn't seem to matter much to most deal makers and wealth creators.
That's all changing. China is opening its markets, slightly loosening the reins on its currency, and is emerging as a key to the future of almost every Wall Street firm. It's also a linchpin of the investment strategies of a growing number of hedge- and private-equity funds.
Consider that global initial public offerings of Chinese companies amounted to $104 billion in 2010, according to data-tracker Dealogic, up from $54 billion in 2009. Last year's tally amounts to $126 billion if Hong Kong companies are included, though it includes domestic markets not fully accessible to foreigners.
By comparison, less than $34 billion of U.S. IPOs took place in 2010, the second consecutive year that Chinese companies topped U.S. companies in IPO issuance. Bankers that didn't participate in Chinese IPOs risked seeing smaller bonuses. No Chinese investment bank has emerged as a global power, reducing alibis for not establishing a presence in deals available to foreigners.
Meanwhile, mergers-and-acquisitions specialists are racing to China to work with companies like China National Offshore Oil Corp., known as Cnooc, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, among the biggest deal makers in 2010. Chinese companies completed 3,235 acquisitions valued at nearly $190 billion, or 9% of all global deals in 2010. That was more than any other nation except the U.S. and more than the $162 billion of deals by U.K.-based companies. China also was the second-most frequent target of purchases by foreign companies in 2010, after the U.S.
In currency markets, analysts say more traders are laying big bets on whether the yuan will be allowed to appreciate further in 2011. Stock-trading volume on Chinese and Hong Kong exchanges now rivals that of U.S. markets. And some strategists, such as Tobias Levkovich of Citigroup, view the Shanghai market as a leading indicator for U.S. shares.
The Chinese economy is expanding so quickly it's helping to offset stagnant growth elsewhere in the world for a growing number of companies. And Chinese demand increasingly drives global commodity prices and shares of commodity providers.
That all helps explain why some of the largest investors are boosting wagers on─and against─China. The bulls say power will continue to shift to developing makets from developed countries. They cite China as exhibit A of this trend, arguing there are more opportunities in China and elsewhere in Asia than in the U.S. or Europe.
Already, some of the hottest investments over the past year, including rare-earth shares like Molycorp Inc. and Rare Element Resources Ltd., get their mojo from tightening Chinese controls or rising demand in the country.
Daniel Arbess, who runs a hedge fund for Perella Weinberg Partners, has been profiting by buying shares of global companies helped by Chinese growth, a strategy he calls 'Shake Hands With China,' and betting against those having a hard time competing with Chinese rivals.
Mr. Arbess is focused on companies like Solutia Inc., Apple Inc. and Yum Brands Inc. that are growing quickly in China, as well as those that produce commodities in demand in China. For example, Yum, the owner of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell brands, saw same-store sales rise in each division for the first time since the end of 2008. China enjoyed a 6% gain, while the U.S. and other international locations posted 1% growth.
But many investors find it challenging to directly wager on China. Few companies have enough shares outstanding, or trade with sufficient activity, to make larger investors feel comfortable making a substantial investment. A relative lack of financial and regulatory transparency also is a hindrance.
A recent incident is a reminder of the need to be wary: China Gas Holdings Ltd., a large natural-gas distributor, announced in late December that two of its executives were escorted from the company's offices by people claiming to represent the Shenzhen Municipal Public Security Bureau. China Gas said it hadn't been able to get in touch with executives, nor has the company been told why the executives were detained.
The incident has flummoxed firms providing analytical coverage of China Gas. UBS, for instance, produces estimates of China Gas's results through 2013. But as of last week, the firm, along with investors, had no details about the executives, and told clients it wasn't sure if the incident would affect the company's operations. The matter hadn't been resolved as the year ended and the stock remains suspended from trading.
That's all part of the reason China also is the target of some of the biggest short-sellers, such as James Chanos, who runs hedge fund Kynikos Advisors.
The bears also point to China's expensive real-estate market and so-called ghost cities that relatively few inhabit, despite billions poured into them by Beijing. Mr. Chanos is shorting Chinese property companies based in Hong Kong, among other shares.
'Large-scale capital projects grow sillier by the day,' Mr. Chanos said at a recent conference, in which he focused on what he called a 'record lending spree in China' that is 'fueling a speculative boom.' Indeed, fixed-asset investment grew 23.5% last year, and is forecast to grow 20% this year; analysts say banks far exceeded China's central bank's cap on lending in 2010.
Meanwhile, many private-equity firms are racing to cut deals in China, to tap into the nation's growth─and to demonstrate to clients that they're capable of finding opportunities in China.
Mr. Kravis's KKR is putting the finishing touches on a $1 billion fund to invest in fast-growing companies in China, its first China-focused fund after several years of investing in China through broader funds. Rivals like TPG and Carlyle, which have long has been active in China, are stepping up activity. TPG recently announced plans to raise two Chinese currency-denominated funds, each sized at more than $700 million.
To be sure, a number of private-equity and hedge-fund chiefs privately share frustrations about China, even as they search for opportunities in the country. The rule of law is weak, some say, making it harder to resolve disputes. Others question the reliability of data published by private and public bodies, or aren't sure who controls Chinese companies, which usually are influenced by Chinese government officials.
Still other private-equity executives worry that assets in the eastern part of the country are so picked-over that they're heading to central and western hinterlands to find opportunities.
Some see this shift as a sign that these investors are embracing risk. Indeed, experts say it's even more difficult to obtain reliable data or gain influence over local businesses in these parts of China.
There's some rationale to the strategy, however. Although the eastern region has long dominated the country, central and western China surpassed the eastern region on most measures of economic growth in 2010, according to Nomura International, including gross-domestic-product growth, retail sales growth, export and imports.
'The western region's growth is accelerating, thanks to rising demand for and rapid development of resources and related industries,' Nomura says.
At the same time, it's risky to bet against an economy with $2.6 trillion of foreign currency reserves and where the majority of the population is only beginning to fully urbanize and embrace higher standards of living, a trend likely to bring more investment opportunities.
The open question for 2011 and beyond is whether Chinese authorities can keep the country growing apace, even as they press the brakes on inflation, which is growing at a clip of more than 5%. Strong future growth may come only if Chinese leaders can transform the nation into a consumer-focused economy. But it may be hard to spark much more spending among a populace that has a relatively flimsy safety net, though the government is aiming to boost social welfare spending.
Whether Chinese development and growth can continue without major setbacks could be more important to global markets and financial firms than anything the Federal Reserve or European Union do in 2011.
'The transition to a consumer society in China represents the single biggest challenge for the global economy,' says Perella Weinberg's Mr. Arbess, 'and the biggest opportunity for markets.'
Gregory Zuckerman
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