正
如我们上周所预料的，中国收紧了政策，对通货膨胀的担忧正越来越大。随着10月份消费者价格指数(CPI)涨幅达到4.4%，中国正面临一种被戏称为“直升机贝南克”的美联储主席贝南克只有做梦才会梦到的通胀挑战。
Reuters
加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)指出，通胀压力从去年开始形成，但中国的决策者在抑制它时采取了谨慎的方式。现在他们得迎头追赶了。加拿大皇家银行预计年底前将再度加息，而明年将会有更大力度的政策出台。
但它有说服力吗？洛克斯说，当政府4月份宣布了一些货币紧缩政策后，房地产交易数量猛降了80%。而当人们清楚地意识到多数城市的地方官员不打算严格实施这些规定时，房产交易数量在8月份和9月份出现了反弹。
就像上世纪80年代的日本一样，中国过于追求经济的增长。这将产生一些糟糕的政策决定，而数月后这可能会令通胀成为一个真正的问题。尽管日本有许多有关紧缩措施的言论，德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)还是预计明年年初时通胀水平将达到5%。
面对所有这些物价涨势，投资者对通胀消息做出了什么样的反应呢？那就是推高中国股市。他们也认为中国不会拉动“刹车闸”。那就及时行乐吧！
Dave Kansas
（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）
As we forecast last week, China has tightened policy and inflation is becoming a greater concern. With a 4.4% reading on the consumer price index for October, China is facing the kind of inflation challenge that Helicopter Ben can only dream about.
Along with CPI chugging at two-year high, China's producer price index has also risen for the first time in five months. Food prices are skyrocketing in a way that may indicate CPI is actually underestimating the inflation threat. Tim Rocks, strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, says apple prices are up 50% in October while sugar and vegetable prices have doubled in the last year. That doesn't sound like 5%.
RBC Capital Markets notes that inflation pressures began building last year, but Chinese policymakers took a cautious approach to taming it. Now they need to play catch-up. RBC predicts another hike before year end and even more aggressive policy next year.
But will it convince? Mr. Rocks says property volumes crashed 80% when the government made some monetary tightening announcements back in April. 'But when it became clear local officials were not going to enforce the rules with any vigor in most cities, volumes bounced back in August and September.'
China is, like 1980s Japan, badly addicted to growth. That could lead to some poor policy choices in the months ahead which might make inflation into a real problem. Deutsche Bank predicts 5% inflation early next year, even with all the tightening noise coming out of Japan.
With all these price rumblings, how have investors reacted to the inflation news? By bidding Chinese shares higher. They don't believe China is about to slam on the brakes, either. Fun while it lasts!
Dave Kansas
Along with CPI chugging at two-year high, China's producer price index has also risen for the first time in five months. Food prices are skyrocketing in a way that may indicate CPI is actually underestimating the inflation threat. Tim Rocks, strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, says apple prices are up 50% in October while sugar and vegetable prices have doubled in the last year. That doesn't sound like 5%.
RBC Capital Markets notes that inflation pressures began building last year, but Chinese policymakers took a cautious approach to taming it. Now they need to play catch-up. RBC predicts another hike before year end and even more aggressive policy next year.
But will it convince? Mr. Rocks says property volumes crashed 80% when the government made some monetary tightening announcements back in April. 'But when it became clear local officials were not going to enforce the rules with any vigor in most cities, volumes bounced back in August and September.'
China is, like 1980s Japan, badly addicted to growth. That could lead to some poor policy choices in the months ahead which might make inflation into a real problem. Deutsche Bank predicts 5% inflation early next year, even with all the tightening noise coming out of Japan.
With all these price rumblings, how have investors reacted to the inflation news? By bidding Chinese shares higher. They don't believe China is about to slam on the brakes, either. Fun while it lasts!
Dave Kansas
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